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Volume 16, issue 1 | Copyright

Special issue: Monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209-222, 2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 21 Jan 2016

Research article | 21 Jan 2016

Can an early-warning system help minimize the impacts of coastal storms? A case study of the 2012 Halloween storm, northern Italy

M. D. Harley1, A. Valentini2, C. Armaroli1,3, L. Perini3, L. Calabrese3, and P. Ciavola1 M. D. Harley et al.
  • 1Department of Physics and Earth Sciences, University of Ferrara, Via Saragat 1, 44121, Ferrara (FE), Italy
  • 2Hydro, Meteo and Climate Service of the Emilia-Romagna Region (ARPA-SIMC), Viale Silvani 6, 40122, Bologna (BO), Italy
  • 3Geological, Seismic and Soil Service of the Emilia-Romagna Region (SGSS), Viale della Fiera 8, 40127, Bologna (BO), Italy

Abstract. The Emilia-Romagna early-warning system (ER-EWS) is a state-of-the-art coastal forecasting system that comprises a series of numerical models (COSMO, ROMS, SWAN and XBeach) to obtain a daily 3-day forecast of coastal storm hazard at eight key sites along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy). On the night of 31 October 2012, a major storm event occurred that resulted in elevated water levels (equivalent to a 1-in-20- to 1-in-50-year event) and widespread erosion and flooding. Since this storm happened just 1 month prior to the roll-out of the ER-EWS, the forecast performance related to this event is unknown. The aim of this study was to therefore reanalyse the ER-EWS as if it had been operating a day before the event and determine to what extent the forecasts may have helped reduce storm impacts. Three different reanalysis modes were undertaken: (1) a default forecast (DF) mode based on 3-day wave and water-level forecasts and default XBeach parameters; (2) a measured offshore (MO) forecast mode using wave and water-level measurements and default XBeach parameters; and (3) a calibrated XBeach (CX) mode using measured boundary conditions and an optimized parameter set obtained through an extensive calibration process. The results indicate that, while a "code-red" alert would have been issued for the DF mode, an underprediction of the extreme water levels of this event limited high-hazard forecasts to only two of the eight ER-EWS sites. Forecasts based on measured offshore conditions (the MO mode) more-accurately indicate high-hazard conditions for all eight sites. Further considerable improvements are observed using an optimized XBeach parameter set (the CX mode) compared to default parameters. A series of what-if scenarios at one of the sites show that artificial dunes, which are a common management strategy along this coastline, could have hypothetically been constructed as an emergency procedure to potentially reduce storm impacts.

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Short summary
The performance of a state-of-the-art early-warning system for the coastline of Emilia-Romagna in northern Italy is rigorously assessed with regards to a major storm event that occurred in October 2012. It is found that such a system has great potential as a new tool for coastal management, following several improvements to the forecast model chain. What-if scenarios in terms of the construction of artificial dunes prior to this event suggest that this may have helped minimize storm impacts.
The performance of a state-of-the-art early-warning system for the coastline of Emilia-Romagna...