Articles | Volume 16, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2287-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2287-2016
Research article
 | 
26 Oct 2016
Research article |  | 26 Oct 2016

Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

Gunnar Dressler, Birgit Müller, Karin Frank, and Christian Kuhlicke

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Überschwemmungsgebiete (UEG) des Freistaates Sachsen, Landesamt für Umwelt LfULG http://www.umwelt.sachsen.de/umwelt/wasser/8841.htm

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Short summary
Disaster management is a core feature to protect communities against floods. But what happens if a loss of resources or an increased flood frequency puts its performance at stake? We use a simulation model as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of change processes on disaster management performance. Demographic change, causing a loss in manpower, has the most profound impact on the performance. Performance might be at risk in particular in rural, upstream regions with very short lead times.
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