An analysis of uncertainties and skill in forecasts of winter storm losses

Pardowitz, Tobias; Osinski, Robert; Kruschke, Tim; Ulbrich, Uwe

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016

Articles | Volume 16, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Risk and uncertainty estimation in natural hazards

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 11

Research article

|

21 Nov 2016

Research article |

| 21 Nov 2016

An analysis of uncertainties and skill in forecasts of winter storm losses

Tobias Pardowitz, Robert Osinski, Tim Kruschke, and Uwe Ulbrich

Data sets

Operational archive for the Ensemble prediction system ECMWF http://apps.ecmwf.int/archive-catalogue/?class=od&stream=enfo&expver=1

Kurze Beschreibung des Lokal-Modells Europa COSMO-EU (LME) und seiner Datenbanken auf dem Datenserver des DWD J. P. Schulz and U. Schättler http://www.dwd.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/modelldokumentationen/nwv/cosmo_eu/cosmo_eu_dbbeschr_201406.html

Short summary

This paper describes an approach to derive probabilistic predictions of local winter storm damage occurrences. Such predictions are subject to large uncertainty due to meteorological forecast uncertainty and uncertainties in modelling weather impacts. The paper aims to quantify these uncertainties and demonstrate that valuable predictions can be made on the district level several days ahead.