An analysis of uncertainties and skill in forecasts of winter storm losses

Pardowitz, Tobias; Osinski, Robert; Kruschke, Tim; Ulbrich, Uwe

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016

Articles | Volume 16, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Risk and uncertainty estimation in natural hazards

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 11

Research article

|

21 Nov 2016

Research article |

| 21 Nov 2016

An analysis of uncertainties and skill in forecasts of winter storm losses

Tobias Pardowitz, Robert Osinski, Tim Kruschke, and Uwe Ulbrich

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Final revised paper (published on 21 Nov 2016)
Preprint (discussion started on 05 Jul 2016)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review of 'Uncertainties in Forecasts of Winter Storm Losses'', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Aug 2016
- AC1: 'Reply to RC1', Tobias Pardowitz, 06 Oct 2016
RC2: 'Review of “Uncertainties in Forecasts of Winter Storm Losses”', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Sep 2016
- AC2: 'Reply to RC2', Tobias Pardowitz, 06 Oct 2016

Short summary

This paper describes an approach to derive probabilistic predictions of local winter storm damage occurrences. Such predictions are subject to large uncertainty due to meteorological forecast uncertainty and uncertainties in modelling weather impacts. The paper aims to quantify these uncertainties and demonstrate that valuable predictions can be made on the district level several days ahead.