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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 16, issue 12 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2657-2682, 2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 14 Dec 2016

Research article | 14 Dec 2016

Overview of the first HyMeX special observation period over Croatia

Branka Ivančan-Picek, Martina Tudor, Kristian Horvath, Antonio Stanešić, and Stjepan Ivatek-Šahdan Branka Ivančan-Picek et al.
  • Research and Development Department, Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Grič 3, 1000 Zagreb, Croatia

Abstract. The HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX) is intended to improve the capabilities of predicting high-impact weather events. Within its framework, the aim of the first special observation period (SOP1), 5 September to 6 November 2012, was to study heavy precipitation events and flash floods. Here, we present high-impact weather events over Croatia that occurred during SOP1. Particular attention is given to eight intense observation periods (IOPs), during which high precipitation occurred over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps. During the entire SOP1, the operational model forecasts generally well represented medium intensity precipitation, but heavy precipitation was frequently underestimated by the ALADIN model at an 8km grid spacing and was overestimated at a higher resolution (2km grid spacing). During IOP2, intensive rainfall occurred over a wider area around the city of Rijeka in the northern Adriatic. The short-range maximum rainfall totals were the largest ever recorded at the Rijeka station since the beginning of measurements in 1958. The rainfall amounts measured in intervals of 20, 30 and 40min were exceptional, with return periods that exceeded a thousand, a few hundred and one hundred years, respectively. The operational precipitation forecast using the ALADIN model at an 8km grid spacing provided guidance regarding the event but underestimated the rainfall intensity. An evaluation of numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the forecast was slightly enhanced by improving the initial conditions through variational data assimilation. The operational non-hydrostatic run at a 2km grid spacing using a configuration with the ALARO physics package further improved the forecast. This article highlights the need for an intensive observation period in the future over the Adriatic region to validate the simulated mechanisms and improve numerical weather predictions via data assimilation and model improvements in descriptions of microphysics and air–sea interactions.

Publications Copernicus
Short summary
In this paper an overview of the IOPs that affected the Adriatic area during SOP1 HyMeX campaign is presented. Results in this paper highlight the need for an intensive observation period in the future over the Adriatic region. The aim is to better understand the relevant processes and validate the simulated mechanisms as well as to improve numerical forecasts via data assimilation and improvements of model representation of moist processes and sea–land–atmosphere interactions.
In this paper an overview of the IOPs that affected the Adriatic area during SOP1 HyMeX campaign...