Articles | Volume 17, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1541-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1541-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Sep 2017
Research article |
| 15 Sep 2017
Construction of an integrated social vulnerability index in urban areas prone to flash flooding
Estefania Aroca-Jimenez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Mining and Geological Engineering, University of
Castilla-La Mancha, Avd. Carlos III, Toledo 45071, Spain
Jose Maria Bodoque
Department of Mining and Geological Engineering, University of
Castilla-La Mancha, Avd. Carlos III, Toledo 45071, Spain
Juan Antonio Garcia
Department of Business Administration, University of Castilla-La
Mancha, Avd. Real Fabrica de Sedas, Talavera de la Reina 45600, Spain
Andres Diez-Herrero
Geological Hazards Division, Geological Survey of Spain, 23 Calle Rios Rosas, Madrid 28003, Spain
Related authors
No articles found.
Julio Garrote, Andrés Diez-Herrero, José M. Bodoque, María A. Perucha, Pablo Mayer, and Mar Genova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-206, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The paper shows a study assessing different flooding scenarios based on the height of scars in trees as indicators for peak discharge estimation in an ungauged fluvial basin with sand and gravel riverbed. The use of scars on trees together with the combined use of 2D hydraulic model and LIDAR topographic data, has allowed a better peak discharge estimation of January, 11–13, 1997 flash flood and its related hazards, than estimation from rainfall data. This could improve flooding risk mapping.
M. J. Machado, B. A. Botero, J. López, F. Francés, A. Díez-Herrero, and G. Benito
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2561–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A flood frequency analysis using a 400-year historical flood record was carried out using a stationary model (based on maximum likelihood estimators) and a non-stationary model that incorporates external covariates (climatic and environmental). The stationary model was successful in providing an average discharge around which value flood quantiles estimated by non-stationary models fluctuate through time.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Quantifying the potential benefits of risk-mitigation strategies on future flood losses in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Review article: Potential of nature-based solutions to mitigate hydro-meteorological risks in sub-Saharan Africa
Invited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modelling
Classifying marine faults for hazard assessment offshore Israel: a new approach based on fault size and vertical displacement
Assessing agriculture's vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regions
Tsunami risk perception in central and southern Italy
Brief communication: Critical infrastructure impacts of the 2021 mid-July western European flood event
Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models
Building-scale flood loss estimation through vulnerability pattern characterization: application to an urban flood in Milan, Italy
Process-based flood damage modelling relying on expert knowledge: a methodological contribution applied to the agricultural sector
Dynamic risk assessment of compound hazards based on VFS–IEM–IDM: a case study of typhoon–rainstorm hazards in Shenzhen, China
Integrated seismic risk assessment in Nepal
Machine learning models to predict myocardial infarctions from past climatic and environmental conditions
Reliability of flood marks and practical relevance for flood hazard assessment in southwestern Germany
Invited perspectives: Managed realignment as a solution to mitigate coastal flood risks – optimizing success through knowledge co-production
Invited perspectives: Views of 350 natural hazard community members on key challenges in natural hazards research and the Sustainable Development Goals
Estimating return intervals for extreme climate conditions related to winter disasters and livestock mortality in Mongolia
Surveying the surveyors to address risk perception and adaptive-behaviour cross-study comparability
Comparison of sustainable flood risk management by four countries – the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the United States, and Japan – and the implications for Asian coastal megacities
Projected impact of heat on mortality and labour productivity under climate change in Switzerland
Full-scale experiments to examine the role of deadwood in rockfall dynamics in forests
Predicting drought and subsidence risks in France
Assessment of Short-medium Term Intervention Effects Using CAESAR-Lisflood in Post-earthquake Mountainous Area
Review article: Design and Evaluation of Weather Index Insurance for Multi-Hazard Resilience and Food Insecurity
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
The determinants affecting the intention of urban residents to prepare for flood risk in China
Strategic framework for natural disaster risk mitigation using deep learning and cost-benefit analysis
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Invited perspectives: Challenges and step changes for natural hazard – perspectives from the German Committee for Disaster Reduction (DKKV)
Public Intention to Participate in Sustainable Geohazard Mitigation: An Empirical Study Based on an Extended Theory of Planned Behavior
Invited perspectives: When research meets practice: challenges, opportunities, and suggestions from the implementation of the Floods Directive in the largest Italian river basin
Rapid landslide risk zoning toward multi-slope units of the Neikuihui tribe for preliminary disaster management
INSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)
Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps
Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment
Design and Testing of a Multi-Hazard Risk Rapid Assessment Questionnaire for Hill Communities in the Indian Himalayan Region
Education, financial aid, and awareness can reduce smallholder farmers' vulnerability to drought under climate change
Regional county-level housing inventory predictions and the effects on hurricane risk
Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Invited Perspectives: “Small country, big challenges – Switzerland's hazard prevention research”
Invited perspectives: Challenges and future directions in improving bridge flood resilience
Bangladesh's vulnerability to cyclonic coastal flooding
A geography of drought indices: mismatch between indicators of drought and its impacts on water and food securities
Cost–benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea
About the return period of a catastrophe
Brief communication: Radar images for monitoring informal urban settlements in vulnerable zones in Lima, Peru
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
Pauline Brémond, Anne-Laurence Agenais, Frédéric Grelot, and Claire Richert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3385–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is impossible to protect all issues against flood risk. To prioritise protection, economic analyses are conducted. The French Ministry of the Environment wanted to make available damage functions that we have developed for several sectors. For this, we propose a methodological framework and apply it to the model we have developed to assess damage to agriculture. This improves the description, validation, transferability and updatability of models based on expert knowledge.
Wenwu Gong, Jie Jiang, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3271–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a model named variable fuzzy set and information diffusion (VFS–IEM–IDM) to assess the dynamic risk of compound hazards, which takes into account the interrelations between the hazard drivers, deals with the problem of data sparsity, and considers the temporal dynamics of the occurrences of the compound hazards. To examine the efficacy of the proposed VFS–IEM–IDM model, a case study of typhoon–rainstorm risks in Shenzhen, China, is presented.
Sanish Bhochhibhoya and Roisha Maharjan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3211–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This is a comprehensive approach to risk assessment that considers the dynamic relationship between loss and damage. The study combines physical risk with social science to mitigate the disaster caused by earthquakes in Nepal, taking socioeconomical parameters into account such that the risk estimates can be monitored over time. The main objective is to recognize the cause of and solutions to seismic hazard, building the interrelationship between individual, natural, and built-in environments.
Lennart Marien, Mahyar Valizadeh, Wolfgang zu Castell, Christine Nam, Diana Rechid, Alexandra Schneider, Christine Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen, Kathrin Wolf, and Laurens M. Bouwer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3015–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Myocardial infarctions (MIs; heart attacks) are influenced by temperature extremes, air pollution, lack of green spaces and ageing population. Here, we apply machine learning (ML) models in order to estimate the influence of various environmental and demographic risk factors. The resulting ML models can accurately reproduce observed annual variability in MI and inter-annual trends. The models allow quantification of the importance of individual factors and can be used to project future risk.
Annette Sophie Bösmeier, Iso Himmelsbach, and Stefan Seeger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2963–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we collected a large number of marks along the Kinzig, southwestern Germany, and tested them for plausibility and temporal continuance. Despite uncertainty, the marks appeared to be an overall consistent and practical source that may also increase flood risk awareness. A wide agreement between the current flood hazard maps and the collected flood marks moreover indicated a robust local hazard assessment.
Mark Schuerch, Hannah L. Mossman, Harriet E. Moore, Elizabeth Christie, and Joshua Kiesel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2879–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal nature-based solutions to adapt to sea-level rise, such as managed realignments (MRs), are becoming increasingly popular amongst scientists and coastal managers. However, local communities often oppose these projects, partly because scientific evidence for their efficiency is limited. Here, we propose a framework to work with stakeholders and communities to define success variables of MR projects and co-produce novel knowledge on the projects’ efficiency to mitigate coastal flood risks.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Masahiko Haraguchi, Nicole Davi, Mukund Palat Rao, Caroline Leland, Masataka Watanabe, and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2751–2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mass livestock mortality during severe winters (dzud in Mongolian) is a compound event. Summer droughts are a precondition for dzud. We estimate the return levels of relevant variables: summer drought conditions and minimum winter temperature. The result shows that the return levels of drought conditions vary over time. Winter severity, however, is constant. We link climatic factors to socioeconomic impacts and draw attention to the need for index insurance.
Samuel Rufat, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Alexander Fekete, Emeline Comby, Peter J. Robinson, Iuliana Armaş, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2655–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever-richer information available. To improve the ability of researchers to build cumulative knowledge, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the accumulation of evidence. We offer several recommendations for future studies.
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Liang Emlyn Yang, Gordon Mitchell, Nigel Wright, Mingfu Guan, Xiaohui Lu, Zilin Wang, Burrell Montz, and Olalekan Adekola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2567–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) has become popular since the 1980s. This study examines the past and present flood management experiences in four developed countries (UK, the Netherlands, USA, and Japan) that have frequently suffered floods. We analysed ways towards SFRM among Asian coastal cities, which are still reliant on a hard-engineering approach that is insufficient to reduce future flood risk. We recommend stakeholders adopt mixed options to undertake SFRM practices.
Zélie Stalhandske, Valentina Nesa, Marius Zumwald, Martina S. Ragettli, Alina Galimshina, Niels Holthausen, Martin Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2531–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We model the impacts of heat on both mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland in a changing climate. We estimate 658 heat-related death currently per year in Switzerland and CHF 665 million in losses in labour productivity. Should we remain on a high-emissions pathway, these values may double or even triple by the end of the century. Under a lower-emissions scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak by around mid-century.
Adrian Ringenbach, Elia Stihl, Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Guang Lu, Andreas Stoffel, Martin Kistler, Sandro Degonda, Kevin Simmler, Daniel Mader, and Andrin Caviezel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2433–2443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forests have a recognized braking effect on rockfalls. The impact of lying deadwood, however, is mainly neglected. We conducted 1 : 1-scale rockfall experiments in three different states of a spruce forest to fill this knowledge gap: the original forest, the forest including lying deadwood and the cleared area. The deposition points clearly show that deadwood has a protective effect. We reproduced those experimental results numerically, considering three-dimensional cones to be deadwood.
Arthur Charpentier, Molly James, and Hani Ali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting consequences of drought episodes is complex, all the more when focusing on subsidence. We use 20 years of insurer data to derive a model to predict both the intensity and the severity of such events, using geophysical and climatic information located in space and time.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, and Kai Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-195, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-195, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The short-medium term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analyzed by simulation in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions. And the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performed better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabrício Alonso Richmond Navarro, Roberto Fray Silva, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-498, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lately we have been exposed to news demonstrating the vulnerability of our society to a variety of natural disasters and they usually are not isolated. To improve the financial stability, we need to provide insurance contracts that allow coverage for multiple sources of threats, such as droughts, extreme temperatures and floods. We conducted a review of the literature for answering very simple questions regarding weather index insurance design and how to cope with multiple hazard risks.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Tiantian Wang, Yunmeng Lu, Tiezhong Liu, Yujiang Zhang, Xiaohan Yan, and Yi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2185–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the main determinants influencing urban residents' intention to prepare for flood risk in China, we developed an integrated theoretical framework based on protection motivation theory (PMT) and validated it with structural equation modeling. The results showed that both threat perception and coping appraisal were effective in increasing residents' intention to prepare. In addition, individual heterogeneity and social context also had an impact on preparedness intentions.
Ji-Myong Kim, Sang-Guk Yum, Hyunsoung Park, and Junseo Bae
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2131–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Insurance data has been utilized with deep learning techniques to predict natural disaster damage losses in South Korea.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Benni Thiebes, Ronja Winkhardt-Enz, Reimund Schwarze, and Stefan Pickl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1969–1972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The worldwide challenge of the present as well as the future is to navigate the global community to a sustainable and secure future. Humanity is increasingly facing multiple risks under more challenging conditions. The continuation of climate change and the ever more frequent occurrence of extreme, multi-hazard, and cascading events are interacting with increasingly complex and interconnected societies.
Hui-ge Xing, Ting Que, Yu-xin Wu, Shi-yu Hu, Hai-bo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-152, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-152, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Survey data obtained from 260 respondents in Jinchuan County, Sichuan Province, China, are analyzed using structural equation modeling and combined with multivariate hierarchical regression to test the explanatory power of the model. The results indicate that attitude, subjective normative, perceived behavioral control, and participatory cognition are significant predictors of public intention to participate. Disaster experience is negatively associated with public intention to participate.
Tommaso Simonelli, Laura Zoppi, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper discusses challenges (and solutions) emerged during a collaboration among practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists in the definition of flood damage maps in the Po River District. Social aspects were proven to be fundamental components of the risk assessment; variety of competences in the working group was key in finding solutions and revealing weaknesses of intermediate proposals. This paper finally highlights the need of duplicating such an experience at a broader European level.
Chih-Chung Chung and Zih-Yi Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Neikuihui tribe in northern Taiwan faces landslides during rainfall events. Since the government needs to respond with disaster management for the most at-risk tribes, this study develops rapid risk zoning, which involves the susceptibility, activity, exposure, and vulnerability of each slope unit of the area. Results reveal that one of the slope units of the Neikuihui tribal area has a higher risk and did suffer a landslide during the typhoon in 2016.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Max Schneider, Michelle McDowell, Peter Guttorp, E. Ashley Steel, and Nadine Fleischhut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-91, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazard. To minimize loss, proper planning and execution in the right direction is necessary. Data collection is base for any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand, pictorial and identify high-risk components of any building (structural & non-structural) and campus from multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilize the budget in a prioritized way. This study is gone through SWOT of the existing risk assessment form.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Caroline J. Williams, Rachel A. Davidson, Linda K. Nozick, Joseph E. Trainor, Meghan Millea, and Jamie L. Kruse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1055–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A neural network model based on publicly available data was developed to forecast the number of housing units for each of 1000 counties in the southeastern United States in each of the next 20 years. The estimated number of housing units is almost always (97 % of the time) less than 1 percentage point different than the observed number, which are predictive errors acceptable for most practical purposes. The housing unit projections can help quantify changes in future expected hurricane impacts.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Dorothea Wabbels and Gian Reto Bezzola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 927–930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to its geography and climate, densely populated Switzerland is often affected by water-related hazards such as surface runoff, floods, debris flows, landslides, rockfalls and avalanches. Almost every part of Switzerland is exposed to natural hazards, and anyone can be affected.
Enrico Tubaldi, Christopher J. White, Edoardo Patelli, Stergios Aristoteles Mitoulis, Gustavo de Almeida, Jim Brown, Michael Cranston, Martin Hardman, Eftychia Koursari, Rob Lamb, Hazel McDonald, Richard Mathews, Richard Newell, Alonso Pizarro, Marta Roca, and Daniele Zonta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 795–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Bridges are critical infrastructure components of transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and are therefore exposed to the potentially devastating impact of floods. This paper discusses a series of issues and areas where improvements in research and practice are required in the context of risk assessment and management of bridges exposed to flood hazard, with the ultimate goal of guiding future efforts in improving bridge flood resilience.
Aurélia Bernard, Nathalie Long, Mélanie Becker, Jamal Khan, and Sylvie Fanchette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 729–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article reviews current scientific literature in order to define vulnerability in the context of coastal Bangladesh facing cyclonic flooding. A new metric, called the socio-spatial vulnerability index, is defined as a function of both the probability of the cyclonic flood hazard and the sensitivity of delta inhabitants. The main result shows that three very densely populated districts, located in the Ganges delta tidal floodplain, are highly vulnerable to cyclonic flooding.
Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 323–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of our study was to question the validity of the assumed direct linkage between drivers of drought and its impacts on water and food securities, mainly found in the frameworks of drought early warning systems (DEWSs). We analysed more than 5000 scientific studies leading us to the conclusion that the local context can contribute to drought drivers resulting in these drought impacts. Our research aims to increase the relevance and utility of the information provided by DEWSs.
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the North Adriatic Italian coast, considering sea level rise up to the year 2100, and perform a cost–benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. The study uses nearshore hydrodynamic modelling. Our findings represent a useful indication for disaster risk management, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return on investments.
Mathias Raschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-245-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop the combined return period to stochastically measure hazard and catastrophe events. This is used to estimate a risk curve by stochastic scaling of historical events and averaging corresponding risk parameters in combination with a vulnerability model. We apply the method to extratropical cyclones over Germany and estimate the risk for insured losses. The results are strongly influenced by assumptions about spatial dependence.
Luis Moya, Fernando Garcia, Carlos Gonzales, Miguel Diaz, Carlos Zavala, Miguel Estrada, Fumio Yamazaki, Shunichi Koshimura, Erick Mas, and Bruno Adriano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 65–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-65-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-65-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Informal occupation of unused lands for settlements is a critical issue in Peru. In most cases, such areas are unsafe against natural hazards. We performed a time-series analysis of Sentinel-1 images at recent informal settlements in Lima. The result suggests that a low-cost and sustainable monitoring system of informal settlements can be implemented.
Cited articles
Adger, W. N.: Vulnerability, Global Environ. Chang., 16, 268–281, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006, 2006.
Adger, W. N., Brooks, N., Bentham, G., Agnew, M., and Eriksen, S.: New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, Tyndall Centre Technical Reports, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Norwich, 128 pp., http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/it1_11.pdf (last access: 17 November 2016), 2004.
Albano, R., Sole, A., and Adamowski, J.: READY: a web-based geographical information system for enhanced flood resilience through raising awareness in citizens, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1645–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1645-2015, 2015.
Asadzadeh, A., Kotter, T., and Zebardast, E.: An augmented approach for measurement of disaster resilience using connective factor analysis and analytic network process (F'ANP) model, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 14, 504–518, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.10.002, 2015.
Balteanu, D., Micu, D., Costache, A., Diana, D., and Persu, M.: Socio-economic Vulnerability to Floods and Flashfloods in the Bend Subcarpathians, Romania, 15th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference (SGEM), Albena, Bulgaria, WOS:000371663400074, 577–584, 2015.
Barredo, J. I.: Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950–2005, Nat. Hazards, 42, 125–148, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9065-2, 2007.
Birkmann, J.: Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Towards Disaster Resilient Societies, United Nations University Press, 720 pp., 2013.
Birkmann, J., Cardona, O. D., Carreno, M. L., Barbat, A. H., Pelling, M., Schneiderbauer, S., Kienberger, S., Keiler, M., Alexander, D., Zeil, P., and Welle, T.: Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework, Nat. Hazards, 67, 193–211, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0558-5, 2013.
Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., and Wisner, B.: At risk: natural hazards, people's vulnerability, and disasters, Routledge, London, 304 pp., 1994.
Bodoque, J. M., Diez-Herrero, A., Eguibar, M. A., Benito, G., Ruiz-Villanueva, V., and Ballesteros-Canovas, J. A.: Challenges in paleoflood hydrology applied to risk analysis in mountainous watersheds – A review, J. Hydrol., 529, 449–467, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.004, 2015.
Bodoque, J. M., Amérigo, M., Díez-Herrero, A., García, J. A., Cortés, B., Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A., and Olcina, J.: Improvement of resilience of urban areas by integrating social perception in flash-flood risk management, J. Hydrol., 541, 665–676, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.005, 2016a.
Bodoque, J. M., Guardiola-Albert, C., Aroca-Jiménez, E., Eguibar, M. A., and Martínez-Chenoll, M. L.: Flood Damage Analysis: First Floor Elevation Uncertainty Resulting from LiDAR-Derived Digital Surface Models, Remote Sens., 8, 604–621, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8070604, 2016b.
Borga, M.: Forecasting, Early Warning and Event Management: Non-structural Protection Measures for Flash Floods and Debris Flows, in: Dating Torrential Processes on Fans and Cones: Methods and Their Application for Hazard and Risk Assessment, edited by: Schneuwly-Bollschweiler, M., Stoffel, M., and Rudolf-Miklau, F., Advances in Global Change Research, 47, Springer Netherlands, 391–398, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4336-6_27, 2013.
Brooks, N., Adger, W. N., and Kelly, P. M.: The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation, Global Environ. Chang., 15, 151–163, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.006, 2005.
Burton, C. and Cutter, S. L.: Levee failures and social vulnerability in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta area, California, Nat. Hazards Rev., 9, 136–149, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)1527-6988(2008)9:3(136), 2008.
Caballero, F. J., Perotas, H., Guerrero, J., Martínez, B., Fernández, I., Goya, R., and Cuadrado, M. A.: El Sistema Nacional de Cartografía de Zonas Inundables en la Demarcación Hidrográfica del Duero, III Jornadas de Ingeniería del Agua (JIA 2011), Barcelona, http://www.ingenieriadelagua.com/2004/JIA/Jia2011/pdf/p505.pdf (last access: 21 November 2016), 2011.
Cash, D. W. and Moser, S. C.: Linking global and local scales: designing dynamic assessment and management processes, Global Environ. Chang., 10, 109–120, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0959-3780(00)00017-0, 2000.
Chakraborty, J., Tobin, G. A., and Montz, B. E.: Population evacuation: assessing spatial variability in geophysical risk and social vulnerability to natural hazards, Nat. Hazards Rev., 6, 23–33, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)1527-6988(2005)6:1(23), 2005.
Clark, G. E., Moser, S. C., Ratick, S. J., Dow, K., Meyer, W. B., Emani, S., Jin, W., Kasperson, J. X., Kasperson, R. E., and Schwarz, H. E.: Assessing the vulnerability of coastal communities to extreme storms: the case of Revere, MA, USA, Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 3, 59–82, https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1009609710795, 1998.
Cutter, S. L.: Vulnerability to environmental hazards, Prog. Human Geogr., 20, 529–539, https://doi.org/10.1177/030913259602000407, 1996.
Cutter, S. L., Boruff, B. J., and Shirley, W. L.: Social vulnerability to environmental hazards, Soc. Sci. Quart., 84, 242–261, https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6237.8402002, 2003.
Cutter, S. L., Barnes, L., Berry, M., Burton, C., Evans, E., Tate, E., and Webb, J.: A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters, Global Environ. Chang., 18, 598–606, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.07.013, 2008.
Cutter, S. L., Burton, C. G., and Emrich, C. T.: Disaster Resilience Indicators for Benchmarking Baseline Conditions, J. Homel. Secur. Emerg., 7, https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1732, 2010.
Cutter, S. L., Emrich, C. T., Morath, D. P., and Dunning, C. M.: Integrating social vulnerability into federal flood risk management planning, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 6, 332–344, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12018, 2013.
Dwyer, A., Zoppou, C., Nielsen, O., Day, S., and Roberts, S.: Quantifying social vulnerability: a methodology for identifying those at risk to natural hazards, Geoscience Australia Record 2004/14, Australia, 92 pp., http://www.geosci.usyd.edu.au/users/prey/Teaching/Geos-2111GIS/Ref/GA4267-IdentifyingRisks.pdf (last access: 2 November 2016), 2004.
Eakin, H. and Luers, A. L.: Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental systems, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 31, 365–394, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.30.050504.144352, 2006.
Fekete, A.: Validation of a social vulnerability index in context to river-floods in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 393–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-393-2009, 2009.
Fekete, A.: Assessment of Social Vulnerability River Floods in Germany, United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), 130 pp., http://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:1978/pdf8069.pdf (last access: 14 October 2016), 2010.
Frazier, T. G., Thompson, C. M., and Dezzani, R. J.: A framework for the development of the SERV model: A Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability model, Appl. Geogr., 51, 158–172, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.04.004, 2014.
Frigerio, I., Ventura, S., Strigaro, D., Mattavelli, M., De Amicis, M., Mugnano, S., and Boffi, M.: A GIS-based approach to identify the spatial variability of social vulnerability to seismic hazard in Italy, Appl. Geogr., 74, 12–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.06.014, 2016.
Fuessel, H. M.: Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research, Global Environ. Chang., 17, 155–167, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.05.002, 2007.
Gollini, I., Lu, B. B., Charlton, M., Brunsdon, C., and Harris, P.: GWmodel: An R Package for Exploring Spatial Heterogeneity Using Geographically Weighted Models, J. Stat. Softw., 63, 1–50, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v063.i17, 2015.
Grosso, N., Dias, L., Costa, H. P., Santos, F. D., and Garrett, P.: Continental Portuguese Territory Flood Social Susceptibility Index, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1921–1931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1921-2015, 2015.
Haer, T., Botzen, W. J. W., and Aerts, J.: The effectiveness of flood risk communication strategies and the influence of social networks-Insights from an agent-based model, Environ. Sci. Policy, 60, 44–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.03.006, 2016.
Hummell, B. M. D., Cutter, S. L., and Emrich, C. T.: Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Brazil, International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 7, 111–122, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-016-0090-9, 2016.
Huntington, T. G.: Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis, J. Hydrol., 319, 83–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.003, 2006.
Karagiorgos, K., Thaler, T., Hubl, J., Maris, F., and Fuchs, S.: Multi-vulnerability analysis for flash flood risk management, Nat. Hazards, 82, 63–87, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2296-y, 2016.
Koks, E. E., de Moel, H., Aerts, J., and Bouwer, L. M.: Effect of spatial adaptation measures on flood risk: study of coastal floods in Belgium, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 413–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0514-7, 2014.
Koks, E. E., Jongman, B., Husby, T. G., and Botzen, W. J. W.: Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management, Environ. Sci. Policy, 47, 42–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.10.013, 2015.
Kunreuther, H., Meyer, R., and Michel-Kerjan, E.: Overcoming decision biases to reduce losses from natural catastrophes, Behavioral foundations of policy, 398–413, 2013.
Liu, D. L. and Li, Y.: Social vulnerability of rural households to flood hazards in western mountainous regions of Henan province, China, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1123–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1123-2016, 2016.
Llasat, M., López, L., Barnolas, M., and Llasat-Botija, M.: Flash-floods in Catalonia: the social perception in a context of changing vulnerability, Adv. Geosci., 17, 63–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-17-63-2008, 2008.
Marchi, L., Borga, M., Preciso, E., and Gaume, E.: Characterisation of selected extreme flash floods in Europe and implications for flood risk management, J. Hydrol., 394, 118–133, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.017, 2010.
Martín, P. J., Lafuente, M., and Faura, Ú.: Análisis de conglomerados (cluster analysis), in: Guía Práctica de Estadística aplicada a la empresa y al marketing, edited by: Paraninfo, E., Madrid, 180, 103–123, 2015.
Mechler, R., Bouwer, L. M., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Surminski, S., and Williges, K.: COMMENTARY: Managing unnatural disaster risk from climate extremes, Nature Climate Change, 4, 235–237, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2137, 2014.
Mollah, S.: Assessment of flood vulnerability at village level for Kandi block of Murshidabad district, West Bengal, Curr. Sci. India, 110, 81–86, https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v18110/i18521/18581-18598, 2016.
Morin, A. J. S., Morizot, J., Boudrias, J. S., and Madore, I.: A Multifoci Person-Centered Perspective on Workplace Affective Commitment: A Latent Profile/Factor Mixture Analysis, Organ. Res. Methods, 14, 58–90, https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428109356476, 2011.
Nelson, K. S., Abkowitz, M. D., and Camp, J. V.: A method for creating high resolution maps of social vulnerability in the context of environmental hazards, Appl. Geogr., 63, 89–100, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.06.011, 2015.
Ocio, D., Stocker, C., Eraso, A., Martinez, A., and de Galdeano, J. M. S.: Towards a reliable and cost-efficient flood risk management: the case of the Basque Country (Spain), Nat. Hazards, 81, 617–639, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2099-6, 2016.
Pandey, R. and Bardsley, D. K.: Social-ecological vulnerability to climate change in the Nepali Himalaya, Appl. Geogr., 64, 74–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.09.008, 2015.
Penning-Rowsell, E., Tapsell, S., and Wilson, T.: Key policy implications of the health effects of floods, in: Extreme Weather Events and Public Health Responses, edited by: Kirch, W., Bertollini, R., and Menne, B., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 207–223, https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-28862-7_20, 2005.
Pérez, C.: Técnicas de análisis multivariante de datos: aplicaciones con SPSS, Pearson Educación, Madrid, 672 pp., 2004.
Rogelis, M. C., Werner, M., Obregon, N., and Wright, N.: Regional prioritisation of flood risk in mountainous areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 833–853, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-833-2016, 2016.
Ruin, I., Creutin, J.-D., Anquetin, S., Gruntfest, E., and Lutoff, C.: Human vulnerability to flash floods: Addressing physical exposure and behavioural questions, Flood risk management: research and practice proceedings of the European Conference on Flood Risk Management Research into Practice (FLOODrisk 2008), Oxford, UK, 30 September–2 October 2008, 1005–1012, https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203883020.ch116, 2009.
Sarstedt, M., and Mooi, E.: A Concise Guide to Market Research: The Process, Data, and Methods Using IBM SPSS Statistics, Springer, Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-53965-7 (last access: 14 November 2016), 2014.
Siebeneck, L., Arlikatti, S., and Andrew, S. A.: Using provincial baseline indicators to model geographic variations of disaster resilience in Thailand, Nat. Hazards, 79, 955–975, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1886-4, 2015.
Tapsell, S. M., Penning-Rowsell, E. C., Tunstall, S. M., and Wilson, T. L.: Vulnerability to flooding: health and social dimensions, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 360, 1511–1525, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1013, 2002.
Terti, G., Ruin, I., Anquetin, S., and Gourley, J. J.: Dynamic vulnerability factors for impact-based flash flood prediction, Nat. Hazards, 79, 1481–1497, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1910-8, 2015.
Thieken, A. H., Mariani, S., Longfield, S., and Vanneuville, W.: Preface: Flood resilient communities – managing the consequences of flooding, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 33–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-33-2014, 2014.
Turner, B. L., Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., and Schiller, A.: A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 100, 8074–8079, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100, 2003.
UNISDR: Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, III UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, Sendai, Japan, 32, http://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf (last access: 3 December 2016), 2015.
USACE: Geospatial Hydrologic Modeling Extension HEC-GeoHMS (Version 10.0), Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, Carolina, http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-geohms/documentation/HEC-GeoHMS_Users_Manual_10.1.pdf (last access: 4 December 2016), 2013.
Vermunt, J. K. and Magidson, J.: Latent class cluster analysis, in: Applied latent class analysis, edited by: Hagenaars, J. A., and McCutcheon, A. L., Cambridge University Press, New York, 89–106, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511499531, 2002.
Weber, S., Sadoff, N., Zell, E., and de Sherbinin, A.: Policy-relevant indicators for mapping the vulnerability of urban populations to extreme heat events: A case study of Philadelphia, Appl. Geogr., 63, 231–243, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.07.006, 2015.
Wilhelmi, O. V. and Morss, R. E.: Integrated analysis of societal vulnerability in an extreme precipitation event: A Fort Collins case study, Environ. Sci. Policy, 26, 49–62, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.005, 2013.
Zelenakova, M., Ganova, L., Purcz, P., and Satrapa, L.: Methodology of flood risk assessment from flash floods based on hazard and vulnerability of the river basin, Nat. Hazards, 79, 2055–2071, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1945-x, 2015.
Zhou, Y., Liu, Y. S., Wu, W. X., and Li, N.: Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China, Nat. Hazards, 78, 257–280, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1713-y, 2015.
Short summary
Flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths. Therefore, a comprehensive assessment of the social risk component is necessary. Integrated social vulnerability can incorporate spatial distribution and contribution and the combined effect of exposure, sensitivity and resilience, and it can be expressed as the integrated social vulnerability index (ISVI). ISVI makes it possible to design tailor-made strategies for flood risk management, thereby increasing the efficiency of plans.
Flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths. Therefore, a comprehensive...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint