Articles | Volume 17, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1595-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1595-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
A modified tank model including snowmelt and infiltration time lags for deep-seated landslides in alpine environments (Aggenalm, Germany)
Wen Nie
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Landslide Research, Faculty of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technische Universität München, Munich, Germany
Michael Krautblatter
Landslide Research, Faculty of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technische Universität München, Munich, Germany
Kerry Leith
Landslide Research, Faculty of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technische Universität München, Munich, Germany
Kurosch Thuro
Engineering Geology, Faculty of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technische Universität München, Munich, Germany
Judith Festl
Baugeologisches Büro Bauer GmbH, Domagkstraße 1a, 80807 Munich, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Maike Offer, Samuel Weber, Michael Krautblatter, Ingo Hartmeyer, and Markus Keuschnig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-893, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a unique dataset of repeated electrical resistivity tomography and long-term borehole temperature measurements to investigate the complex seasonal water flow in permafrost rockwalls. Our joint analysis shows that permafrost rocks are subject to enhanced pressurised water flow during the melt period. In addition to slow thermal heat conduction, permafrost rocks are subject to push-like warming events, favouring accelerated permafrost degradation and reduced rockwall stability.
Johannes Leinauer, Michael Dietze, Sibylle Knapp, Riccardo Scandroglio, Maximilian Jokel, and Michael Krautblatter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-231, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-231, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Massive rock slope failures are a significant alpine hazard and change the earth´s surface. Therefore, we must understand what controls the preparation of such events. By correlating four years of slope displacements with meteorological and seismic data, we found that water from rain and snowmelt is the most important driver. Our approach is applicable to similar sites and indicates, where future climatic changes, e.g. in rain intensity and frequency, may alter the preparation of slope failure.
Natalie Barbosa, Johannes Leinauer, Juilson Jubanski, Michael Dietze, Ulrich Münzer, Florian Siegert, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 249–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Massive sediment pulses in catchments are a key alpine multi-risk component. Combining high-resolution aerial imagery and seismic information, we decipher a multi-stage >130.000 m³ rockfall and subsequent sediment pulses over 4 years, reflecting sediment deposition up to 10 m, redistribution in the basin, and finally debouchure to the outlet. This study provides generic information on spatial and temporal patterns of massive sediment pulses in highly charged alpine catchments.
Christian Werthmann, Marta Sapena, Marlene Kühnl, John Singer, Carolina Garcia, Bettina Menschik, Heike Schäfer, Sebastian Schröck, Lisa Seiler, Kurosch Thuro, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-53, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Early Warning Systems (EWS) promise to decrease the vulnerability of self-constructed (informal) settlements threatened by landslides. A living lab sought to develop an integrated EWS in a landslide exposed neighborhood in Medellín. Findings indicate that technical aspects can be manageable, lesser social and political dynamics. A resilient EWS for informal settlements has to achieve sufficient social and technical redundancy to maintain basic functionality in a reduced support scenario.
Moritz Gamperl, John Singer, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, Lisa Seiler, Julian Castañeda, David Cerón-Hernandez, and Kurosch Thuro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-20, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a system which can help improve the resilience of informal settlements in mountainous areas against shallow landslides. This system comprises a monitoring system which is specially designed for such areas and an according social system, the goal of which is to include the local residents in every step. We here present this system and the tools for it's further improvement by and with the scientific community, as well as endangered on-site communities.
Sibylle Knapp, Michael Schwenk, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 1185–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Flims area in the Swiss Alps has fascinated the researchers with its complex geological history ever since. Especially the order of events related to the Tamins and Flims rockslides has long been debated. This paper presents novel results based on up to 160 m deep geophysical profiles, which show onlaps of the Bonaduz Formation onto the Tamins deposits (Ils Aults) and thus indicate that the Tamins rockslide occurred first. The consecutive evolution of this landscape is shown in four phases.
Shiva P. Pudasaini and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 165–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-165-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first physics-based general landslide velocity model incorporating internal deformation and external forces. Voellmy–inviscid Burgers' equations are specifications of the novel advective–dissipative system. Unified analytical solutions constitute a new foundation of landslide velocity, providing key information to instantly estimate impact forces and describe breaking waves and folding, revealing that landslide dynamics are architectured by advection and reigned by forcing.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Carolin Kiefer, Patrick Oswald, Jasper Moernaut, Stefano Claudio Fabbri, Christoph Mayr, Michael Strasser, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1481–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1481-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides amphibious investigations of debris flow fans (DFFs). We characterize active DFFs, combining laser scan and sonar surveys at Plansee. We discover a 4000-year debris flow record in sediment cores, providing evidence for a 7-fold debris flow frequency increase in the 20th and 21st centuries, coincident with 2-fold enhanced rainstorm activity in the northern European Alps. Our results indicate climate change as being the main factor controlling debris flow activity.
Philipp Mamot, Samuel Weber, Saskia Eppinger, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1125–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The mechanical response of permafrost degradation on high-mountain rock slope stability has not been calculated in a numerical model yet. We present the first approach for a model with thermal and mechanical input data derived from laboratory and field work, and existing concepts. This is applied to a test site at the Zugspitze, Germany. A numerical sensitivity analysis provides the first critical stability thresholds related to the rock temperature, slope angle and fracture network orientation.
Doris Hermle, Markus Keuschnig, Ingo Hartmeyer, Robert Delleske, and Michael Krautblatter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2753–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Multispectral remote sensing imagery enables landslide detection and monitoring, but its applicability to time-critical early warning is rarely studied. We present a concept to operationalise its use for landslide early warning, aiming to extend lead time. We tested PlanetScope and unmanned aerial system images on a complex mass movement and compared processing times to historic benchmarks. Acquired data are within the forecasting window, indicating the feasibility for landslide early warning.
Michael Krautblatter, Lutz Schirrmeister, and Josefine Lenz
Polarforschung, 89, 69–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/polf-89-69-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/polf-89-69-2021, 2021
Larissa de Palézieux, Kerry Leith, and Simon Loew
Earth Surf. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2020-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2020-85, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Large creeping landslides are persistent features in mountainous landscapes. In order to quantify the long-term evolution of landslides and their interaction with river channels, we use a new metric for landslide-induced channel offset, which allows us to identify locations associated with increased landslide activity and estimate landslide displacement rates over a period of 1 Myr.
Ingo Hartmeyer, Robert Delleske, Markus Keuschnig, Michael Krautblatter, Andreas Lang, Lothar Schrott, and Jan-Christoph Otto
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 729–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-729-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-729-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is causing significant ice surface lowering even in the uppermost parts of alpine glaciers. Using terrestrial lidar, we quantify rockfall in freshly exposed cirque walls. During 6-year monitoring (2011–2017), an extensive dataset was established and over 600 rockfall events identified. Drastically increased rockfall activity following ice retreat can clearly be observed as 60 % of the rockfall volume detached from less than 10 m above the glacier surface.
Ingo Hartmeyer, Markus Keuschnig, Robert Delleske, Michael Krautblatter, Andreas Lang, Lothar Schrott, Günther Prasicek, and Jan-Christoph Otto
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 753–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfall size and frequency in two deglaciating cirques in the Central Alps, Austria, is analysed based on 6-year rockwall monitoring with terrestrial lidar (2011–2017). The erosion rates derived from this dataset are very high due to a frequent occurrence of large rockfalls in freshly deglaciated areas. The results obtained are important for rockfall hazard assessments, as, in rockwalls affected by glacier retreat, historical rockfall patterns are not good predictors of future events.
Philipp Mamot, Samuel Weber, Maximilian Lanz, and Michael Krautblatter
The Cryosphere, 14, 1849–1855, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1849-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1849-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A failure criterion for ice-filled rock joints is a prerequisite to accurately assess the stability of permafrost rock slopes. In 2018 a failure criterion was proposed based on limestone. Now, we tested the transferability to other rocks using mica schist and gneiss which provide the maximum expected deviation of lithological effects on the shear strength. We show that even for controversial rocks the failure criterion stays unaltered, suggesting that it is applicable to mostly all rock types.
Philipp Mamot, Samuel Weber, Tanja Schröder, and Michael Krautblatter
The Cryosphere, 12, 3333–3353, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3333-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Most of the observed failures in permafrost-affected alpine rock walls are likely triggered by the mechanical destabilisation of warming bedrock permafrost including ice-filled joints. We present a systematic study of the brittle shear failure of ice and rock–ice contacts along rock joints in a simulated depth ≤ 30 m and at temperatures from −10 to −0.5 °C. Warming and sudden reduction in rock overburden due to the detachment of an upper rock mass lead to a significant drop in shear resistance.
Samuel Weber, Jan Beutel, Jérome Faillettaz, Andreas Hasler, Michael Krautblatter, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 11, 567–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-567-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-567-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 8-year continuous time series of measured fracture kinematics and thermal conditions on steep permafrost bedrock at Hörnligrat, Matterhorn. Based on this unique dataset and a conceptual model for strong fractured bedrock, we develop a novel quantitative approach that allows to separate reversible from irreversible fracture kinematics and assign the dominant forcing. A new index of irreversibility provides useful indication for the occurrence and timing of irreversible displacements.
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps
Simulation analysis of 3D stability of a landslide with a locking segment: a case study of the Tizicao landslide in Maoxian County, southwest China
Space–time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks
Optimization strategy for flexible barrier structures: investigation and back analysis of a rockfall disaster case in southwestern China
Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment
Slope Unit Maker (SUMak): an efficient and parameter-free algorithm for delineating slope units to improve landslide modeling
Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling
Analysis of three-dimensional slope stability combined with rainfall and earthquake
Assessing Locations Susceptible to Landslide Initiation During Prolonged Intense Rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito Municipios of Puerto Rico
A new analytical method for stability analysis of rock blocks with basal erosion in sub-horizontal strata by considering the eccentricity effect
Rockfall monitoring with a Doppler radar on an active rockslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls (Switzerland)
Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA
Lessons learnt from a rockfall time series analysis: data collection, statistical analysis, and applications
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
The concept of event-size-dependent exhaustion and its application to paraglacial rockslides
Coastal earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand
Characteristics of debris flow prone watersheds and triggering rainstorms following the Tadpole Fire, New Mexico, USA
Assessing Landslide Damming susceptibility in Central Asia
Characteristics of debris flows recorded in the Shenmu area of central Taiwan between 2004 and 2021
Semi-automatic mapping of shallow landslides using free Sentinel-2 images and Google Earth Engine
The role of thermokarst evolution in debris flow initiation (Hüttekar Rock Glacier, Austrian Alps)
Accounting for the effect of forest and fragmentation in probabilistic rockfall hazard
Comprehensive landslide susceptibility map of Central Asia
The influence of large woody debris on post-wildfire debris flow sediment storage
Morphological characteristics and conditions of drainage basins contributing to the formation of debris flow fans: examination of regions with different rock strength using decision tree analysis
Statistical modeling of sediment supply in torrent catchments of the northern French Alps
A data-driven evaluation of post-fire landslide susceptibility
Deciphering seasonal effects of triggering and preparatory precipitation for improved shallow landslide prediction using generalized additive mixed models
Brief communication: The northwest Himalaya towns slipping towards potential disaster
Dynamic response and breakage of trees subject to a landslide-induced air blast
Debris-flow surges of a very active alpine torrent: a field database
Rainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data
Instantaneous limit equilibrium back analyses of major rockslides triggered during the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence
Deadly disasters in southeastern South America: flash floods and landslides of February 2022 in Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
Multi-event assessment of typhoon-triggered landslide susceptibility in the Philippines
Antecedent rainfall as a critical factor for the triggering of debris flows in arid regions
Sensitivity analysis of a built environment exposed to the synthetic monophasic viscous debris flow impacts with 3-D numerical simulations
Characteristics and causes of natural and human-induced landslides in a tropical mountainous region: the rift flank west of Lake Kivu (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Spatio-temporal analysis of slope-type debris flow activity in Horlachtal, Austria, based on orthophotos and lidar data since 1947
Assessing the relationship between weather conditions and rockfall using terrestrial laser scanning to improve risk management
Using principal component analysis to incorporate multi-layer soil moisture information in hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide prediction: an investigation based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data
Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria)
Brief communication: An autonomous UAV for catchment-wide monitoring of a debris flow torrent
How volcanic stratigraphy constrains headscarp collapse scenarios: the Samperre cliff case study (Martinique island, Lesser Antilles)
Landslide susceptibility assessment in the rocky coast subsystem of Essaouira, Morocco
Landsifier v1.0: a Python library to estimate likely triggers of mapped landslides
Timing landslide and flash flood events from SAR satellite: a regionally applicable methodology illustrated in African cloud-covered tropical environments
Potential of satellite-derived hydro-meteorological information for landslide initiation thresholds in Rwanda
Earthquake-induced landslides in Haiti: analysis of seismotectonic and possible climatic influences
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-181, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-181, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
By a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, we derive the calculation of the seepage force. A global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquake. The reliability of the proposed method is also verified with two examples combining software calculations and previous results.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-185, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 and 90 percent, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
Marius Schneider, Nicolas Oestreicher, Thomas Ehrat, and Simon Loew
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3337–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfalls and their hazards are typically treated as statistical events based on rockfall catalogs, but only a few complete rockfall inventories are available today. Here, we present new results from a Doppler radar rockfall alarm system, which has operated since 2018 at a high frequency under all illumination and weather conditions at a site where frequent rockfall events threaten a village and road. The new data set is used to investigate rockfall triggers in an active rockslide complex.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Sandra Melzner, Marco Conedera, Johannes Hübl, and Mauro Rossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3079–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of the temporal frequency of the involved rockfall processes is an important part in hazard and risk assessments. Different methods can be used to collect and analyse rockfall data. From a statistical point of view, rockfall datasets are nearly always incomplete. Accurate data collection approaches and the application of statistical methods on existing rockfall data series as reported in this study should be better considered in rockfall hazard and risk assessments in the future.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1892, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Stefan Hergarten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3051–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockslides are a major hazard in mountainous regions. In formerly glaciated regions, the disposition mainly arises from oversteepened topography and decreases through time. However, little is known about this decrease and thus about the present-day hazard of huge, potentially catastrophic rockslides. This paper presents a new theoretical framework that explains the decrease in maximum rockslide size through time and predicts the present-day frequency of large rockslides for the European Alps.
Colin K. Bloom, Corinne Singeisen, Timothy Stahl, Andrew Howell, Chris Massey, and Dougal Mason
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2987–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are often observed on coastlines following large earthquakes, but few studies have explored this occurrence. Here, statistical modelling of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand is used to investigate factors driving coastal earthquake-induced landslides. Geology, steep slopes, and shaking intensity are good predictors of landslides from the Kaikōura event. Steeper slopes close to the coast provide the best explanation for a high landslide density.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1672, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a 2+ year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umuralievd, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-140, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia regions are characterized by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of potential damming scenarios which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated GIS-based mapping method, centred on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to spatially assess the rivers obstruction in Central Asia.
Yi-Min Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2649–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are common hazards in Taiwan, and debris-flow early warning is important for disaster responses. The rainfall thresholds of debris flows are analyzed and determined in terms of rainfall intensity, accumulated rainfall, and rainfall duration, based on case histories in Taiwan. These thresholds are useful for disaster management, and the cases in Taiwan are useful for global debris-flow databases.
Davide Notti, Martina Cignetti, Danilo Godone, and Daniele Giordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2625–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a cost-effective and user-friendly approach to map shallow landslides using free satellite data. Our methodology involves analysing the pre- and post-event NDVI variation to semi-automatically detect areas potentially affected by shallow landslides (PLs). Additionally, we have created Google Earth Engine scripts to rapidly compute NDVI differences and time series of affected areas. Datasets and codes are stored in an open data repository for improvement by the scientific community.
Simon Seelig, Thomas Wagner, Karl Krainer, Michael Avian, Marc Olefs, Klaus Haslinger, and Gerfried Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2547–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A rapid sequence of cascading events involving thermokarst lake outburst, rock glacier front failure, debris flow development, and river blockage hit an alpine valley in Austria during summer 2019. We analyze the environmental conditions initiating the process chain and identify the rapid evolution of a thermokarst channel network as the main driver. Our results highlight the need to account for permafrost degradation in debris flow hazard assessment studies.
Camilla Lanfranconi, Paolo Frattini, Gianluca Sala, Giuseppe Dattola, Davide Bertolo, Juanjuan Sun, and Giovanni Battista Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2349–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a study on rockfall dynamics and hazard, examining the impact of the presence of trees along slope and block fragmentation. We compared rockfall simulations that explicitly model the presence of trees and fragmentation with a classical approach that accounts for these phenomena in model parameters (both the hazard and the kinetic energy change). We also used a non-parametric probabilistic rockfall hazard analysis method for hazard mapping.
Ascanio Rosi, William Frodella, Nicola Nocentini, Francesco Caleca, Hans Balder Havenith, Alexander Strom, Mirzo Saidov, Gany Amirgalievich Bimurzaev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2229–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work was carried out within the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) project and is focused on the first landslide susceptibility analysis at a regional scale for Central Asia. The most detailed available landslide inventories were implemented in a random forest model. The final aim was to provide a useful tool for reduction strategies to landslide scientists, practitioners, and administrators.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2075–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-24, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differs depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1769–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In mountain catchments, damage during floods is generally primarily driven by the supply of a massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper uses data gathered during the maintenance operation of about 100 debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Elsa S. Culler, Ben Livneh, Balaji Rajagopalan, and Kristy F. Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides have often been observed in the aftermath of wildfires. This study explores regional patterns in the rainfall that caused landslides both after fires and in unburned locations. In general, landslides that occur after fires are triggered by less rainfall, confirming that fire helps to set the stage for landslides. However, there are regional differences in the ways in which fire impacts landslides, such as the size and direction of shifts in the seasonality of landslides after fires.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Yaspal Sundriyal, Vipin Kumar, Neha Chauhan, Sameeksha Kaushik, Rahul Ranjan, and Mohit Kumar Punia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1425–1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The NW Himalaya has been one of the most affected terrains of the Himalaya, subject to disastrous landslides. This article focuses on two towns (Joshimath and Bhatwari) of the NW Himalaya, which have been witnessing subsidence for decades. We used a slope stability simulation to determine the response of the hillslopes accommodating these towns under various loading conditions. We found that the maximum displacement in these hillslopes might reach up to 20–25 m.
Yu Zhuang, Aiguo Xing, Perry Bartelt, Muhammad Bilal, and Zhaowei Ding
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1257–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree destruction is often used to back calculate the air blast impact region and to estimate the air blast power. Here we established a novel model to assess air blast power using tree destruction information. We find that the dynamic magnification effect makes the trees easier to damage by a landslide-induced air blast, but the large tree deformation would weaken the effect. Bending and overturning are two likely failure modes, which depend heavily on the properties of trees.
Suzanne Lapillonne, Firmin Fontaine, Frédéric Liebault, Vincent Richefeu, and Guillaume Piton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1241–1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are fast flows most often found in torrential watersheds. They are composed of two phases: a liquid phase which can be mud-like and a granular phase, including large boulders, transported along with the flow. Due to their destructive nature, accessing features of the flow, such as velocity and flow height, is difficult. We present a protocol to analyse debris flow data and results of the Réal torrent in France. These results will help experts in designing models.
Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1191–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first approximation of regional rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Peru. This research was generated from a gridded precipitation data and landslide inventory. The analysis showed that the threshold based on the combination of mean daily intensity–duration variables gives the best results for separating rainfall events that generate landslides. Through this work the potential of thresholds for landslide monitoring at the regional scale is demonstrated.
Luca Verrucci, Giovanni Forte, Melania De Falco, Paolo Tommasi, Giuseppe Lanzo, Kevin W. Franke, and Antonio Santo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1177–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stability analyses in static and seismic conditions were performed on four rockslides that occurred during the main shocks of the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence. These results also indicate that specific structural features of the slope must carefully be accounted for in evaluating potential hazards on transportation infrastructures in mountainous regions.
Enner Alcântara, José A. Marengo, José Mantovani, Luciana R. Londe, Rachel Lau Yu San, Edward Park, Yunung Nina Lin, Jingyu Wang, Tatiana Mendes, Ana Paula Cunha, Luana Pampuch, Marcelo Seluchi, Silvio Simões, Luz Adriana Cuartas, Demerval Goncalves, Klécia Massi, Regina Alvalá, Osvaldo Moraes, Carlos Souza Filho, Rodolfo Mendes, and Carlos Nobre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1157–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The municipality of Petrópolis (approximately 305 687 inhabitants) is nestled in the mountains 68 km outside the city of Rio de Janeiro. On 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm). This resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. This work shows how the disaster was triggered.
Joshua N. Jones, Georgina L. Bennett, Claudia Abancó, Mark A. M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1095–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled where landslides occur in the Philippines using landslide data from three typhoon events in 2009, 2018, and 2019. These models show where landslides occurred within the landscape. By comparing the different models, we found that the 2019 landslides were occurring all across the landscape, whereas the 2009 and 2018 landslides were mostly occurring at specific slope angles and aspects. This shows that landslide susceptibility must be considered variable through space and time.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Xun Huang, Zhijian Zhang, and Guoping Xiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 871–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A sensitivity analysis on the building impact force resulting from the representative built environment parameters is executed through the FLOW-3D model. The surrounding buildings' properties, especially the azimuthal angle, have been confirmed to play significant roles in determining the peak impact forces. The single and combined effects of built environments are analyzed in detail. This will improve understanding of vulnerability assessment and migration design against debris flow hazards.
Jean-Claude Maki Mateso, Charles L. Bielders, Elise Monsieurs, Arthur Depicker, Benoît Smets, Théophile Tambala, Luc Bagalwa Mateso, and Olivier Dewitte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 643–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research highlights the importance of human activities on the occurrence of landslides and the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability patterns in regions under anthropogenic pressure. Also, this study highlights the importance of considering the timing of landslides and hence the added value of using historical information for compiling an inventory.
Jakob Rom, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Moritz Altmann, Fabian Fleischer, Camillo Ressl, Sarah Betz-Nutz, and Michael Becht
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 601–622, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, an area-wide slope-type debris flow record has been established for Horlachtal, Austria, since 1947 based on historical and recent remote sensing data. Spatial and temporal analyses show variations in debris flow activity in space and time in a high-alpine region. The results can contribute to a better understanding of past slope-type debris flow dynamics in the context of extreme precipitation events and their possible future development.
Tom Birien and Francis Gauthier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On highly fractured rockwalls such as those found in northern Gaspésie, most rockfalls are triggered by weather conditions. This study highlights that in winter, rockfall frequency is 12 times higher during a superficial thaw than during a cold period in which temperature remains below 0 °C. In summer, rockfall frequency is 22 times higher during a heavy rainfall event than during a mainly dry period. This knowledge could be used to implement a risk management strategy.
Nunziarita Palazzolo, David J. Peres, Enrico Creaco, and Antonino Cancelliere
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an approach exploiting PCA to derive hydrometeorological landslide-triggering thresholds using multi-layered soil moisture data from ERA5-Land reanalysis. Comparison of thresholds based on single- and multi-layered soil moisture information provides a means to identify the significance of multi-layered data for landslide triggering in a region. In Sicily, the proposed approach yields thresholds with a higher performance than traditional precipitation-based ones (TSS = 0.71 vs. 0.50).
Raphael Knevels, Helene Petschko, Herwig Proske, Philip Leopold, Aditya N. Mishra, Douglas Maraun, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In summer 2009 and 2014, rainfall events occurred in the Styrian Basin (Austria), triggering thousands of landslides. Landslide storylines help to show potential future changes under changing environmental conditions. The often neglected uncertainty quantification was the aim of this study. We found uncertainty arising from the landslide model to be of the same order as climate scenario uncertainty. Understanding the dimensions of uncertainty is crucial for allowing informed decision-making.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Marc Peruzzetto, Yoann Legendre, Aude Nachbaur, Thomas J. B. Dewez, Yannick Thiery, Clara Levy, and Benoit Vittecoq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3973–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic edifices result from successive construction and dismantling phases. Thus, the geological units forming volcanoes display complex geometries. We show that such geometries can be reconstructed thanks to aerial views, topographic surveys and photogrammetric models. In our case study of the Samperre cliff (Martinique, Lesser Antilles), it allows us to link destabilizations from a rocky cliff to the existence of a filled paleo-valley and estimate a potentially unstable volume.
Abdellah Khouz, Jorge Trindade, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Fatima El Bchari, Blaid Bougadir, Ricardo A. C. Garcia, and Mourad Jadoud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3793–3814, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this study was to assess the landslide susceptibility of the rocky coast of Essaouira using the information value model. The resulting susceptibility maps could be used for both environmental protection and general planning of future development activities.
Kamal Rana, Nishant Malik, and Ugur Ozturk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3751–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The landslide hazard models assist in mitigating losses due to landslides. However, these models depend on landslide databases, which often have missing triggering information, rendering these databases unusable for landslide hazard models. In this work, we developed a Python library, Landsifier, consisting of three different methods to identify the triggers of landslides. These methods can classify landslide triggers with high accuracy using only a landslide polygon shapefile as an input.
Axel A. J. Deijns, Olivier Dewitte, Wim Thiery, Nicolas d'Oreye, Jean-Philippe Malet, and François Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3679–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides and flash floods are rainfall-induced processes that often co-occur and interact, generally very quickly. In mountainous cloud-covered environments, determining when these processes occur remains challenging. We propose a regional methodology using open-access satellite radar images that allow for the timing of landslide and flash floods events, in the contrasting landscapes of tropical Africa, with an accuracy of up to a few days. The methodology shows potential for transferability.
Judith Uwihirwe, Alessia Riveros, Hellen Wanjala, Jaap Schellekens, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
Hans-Balder Havenith, Kelly Guerrier, Romy Schlögel, Anika Braun, Sophia Ulysse, Anne-Sophie Mreyen, Karl-Henry Victor, Newdeskarl Saint-Fleur, Léna Cauchie, Dominique Boisson, and Claude Prépetit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3361–3384, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new landslide inventory for the 2021, M 7.2, Haiti, earthquake. We compare characteristics of this inventory with those of the 2010 seismically induced landslides, highlighting the much larger total area of 2021 landslides. This fact could be related to the larger earthquake magnitude in 2021, to the more central location of the fault segment ruptured in 2021 with respect to coastal zones, and/or to possible climatic preconditioning of slope failures in the 2021 affected area.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Shashank Bhushan, Mylène Jacquemart, César Deschamps-Berger, Etienne Berthier, Simon Gascoin, David E. Shean, Dan H. Shugar, and Andreas Kääb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3309–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 7 February 2021, a large rock–ice avalanche occurred in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. The resulting debris flow swept down the nearby valley, leaving over 200 people dead or missing. We use a range of satellite datasets to investigate how the collapse area changed prior to collapse. We show that signs of instability were visible as early 5 years prior to collapse. However, it would likely not have been possible to predict the timing of the event from current satellite datasets.
Cited articles
Abebe, N. A., Ogden, F. L., and Pradhan, N. R.: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the conceptual HBV rainfall–runoff model: implications for parameter estimation, J. Hydrol., 389, 301–310, 2010.
Agliardi, F., Crosta, G. B., Zanchi, A., and Ravazzi, C.: Onset and timing of deep-seated gravitational slope deformations in the eastern Alps, Italy, Geomorphology, 103, 113–129, 2009.
Ahrens, C. D.: Meteorology Today: an Introduction to Weather, Climate, and the Environment, Cengage Learning, California, USA, 2007.
Angeli, M. G., Gasparetto, P., Silano, S., and Tonnetti, G.: An automatic recording system to detect critical stability conditions in slopes, in: Proc. of the 5th ISL, Lausanne, 375–378, 1988.
Angeli, M. G., Gasparetto, P., Menotti, R. M., Pasuto, A., and Silvano, S.: A visco-plastic model for slope analysis applied to a mudslide in Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy, Q. J. Eng. Geol. Hydroge., 29, 233–240, 1996.
Angeli, M. G., Gasparetto, P., and Bromhead, E.: Strength-regain mechanisms in intermittently moving landslides, in: Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Landslides, Rio de Janeiro, Taylor and Francis, London, 689–696, 2004.
Bocchieri, J. R.: The objective use of upper air sounding to specify precipitation type, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 596–603, 1980.
Bourgouin, P.: A method to determine precipitation types, Weather Forecast., 15, 583–592, 2000.
Braun, L. N., Aellen, M., Funk, M., Hock, R., Rohrer, M. B., Steinegger, U., Kappenberger, G., and Müller-Lemans, H.: Measurement and simulation of high alpine water balance components in the Linth-Limmern head watershed (Northeastern Switzerland), Zeitschrift für Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie, 30, 161–185, 1994.
Bromhead, E. N.: Large landslides in London Clay at Herne Bay, Kent, Q. J. Eng. Geol. Hydroge., 11, 291–304, 1978.
Chen, L. and Young, M. H.: Green-Ampt infiltration model for sloping surfaces, Water Resour. Res., 42, W07420, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004468, 2006.
Czys, R. R., Scott, R. W., Tang, K. C., Przybylinski, R. W., and Sabones, M. E.: A physically based, nondimensional parameter for discriminating between locations of freezing rain and ice pellets, Weather Forecast., 11, 591–598, 1996.
Esko, K.: On the values and variability of degree-day melting factor in Finland, Nord. Hydrol., 11, 235–242, 1980.
Faris, F. and Fathani, F.: A coupled hydrology/slope kinematics model for developing early warning criteria in the Kalitlaga Landslide, Banjarnegara, Indonesia, in: Progress of Geo-Disaster Mitigation Technology in Asia, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Germany, 453–467, 2013.
Festl, J., Singer, J., and Thuro, K.: The Aggenalm landslide-first findings of the acquired monitoring data, in: Landslide and Engineered Slopes, Protecting Society Through Improved Understanding, edited by: Eberhardt, E., Froese, C., Turner, A. K. and Leroueil, S., Proceedings of the 11th International and 2nd North American Symposium on Landslides and Engineered Slopes, Banff, Canada 3–8 June 2012, Taylor & Francis Group, London, 907–912, 2012.
Festl, J.: Analysis and evaluation of the geosensor network's data at the Aggenalm Landslide, Bayerischzell, Germany, PhD thesis, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany, 2014.
Finsterwalder, S. and Schunk, H.: Der Suldenferner, Zeitschrift des Deutschen und Oesterreichischen Alpenvereins, 18, 72–89, 1887.
Fredlund, D. G. and Xing, A.: Equations for the soil-water characteristic curve, Can. Geotech. J., 31, 521–532, 1994.
Freedman, D., Pisani, R., and Purves, R.: Statistics, 4th Edn., W.W. Norton and Company, New York City, USA, 57–76, 1998.
Garen, D. C. and Marks, D.: Spatially distributed energy balance snowmelt modelling in a mountainous river basin: estimation of meteorological inputs and verification of model results, J. Hydrol., 315, 126–153, 2005.
Gottlieb, L.: Development and applications of a run off model for snow covered and glacierized basins, Nord. Hydrol., 11, 255–284, 1980.
Gwinner, M. P.: Geologie der Alpen, Schweizerbart, Stuttgart, 477 pp., 1971.
Häggmark, L. and Ivarsson, K. I.: MESAN Mesoskalig analys, Sveriges meteorohoska och hydrologiska institute, SMHI RMK Nr. 75, 21–28, 1997.
Herrero, J., Polo, M. J., Moñino, A., and Losada, M. A.: An energy balance snowmelt model in a Mediterranean site, J. Hydrol., 371, 98–107, 2009.
Hock, R.: A distributed temperature-index ice- and snowmelt model including potential direct solar radiation, J. Glaciol., 45, 101–111, 1999.
Hock, R.: Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas, J. Hydrol., 282, 104–115, 2003.
Hong, Y., Hiura, H., Shino, K., Sassa, K., and Fukuoka, H.: Quantitative assessment of the influence of heavy rainfall on a crystalline schist landslide by monitoring system – a case study of the Zentoku landslide, Japan, Landslides, 2, 31–41, 2005.
Ishihara, Y. and Kobatake, S.: Runoff model for flood forecasting, Bulletin of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, 29, 27–43, 1979.
Iverson, R. M.: Landslide triggering by rain infiltration, Water Resour. Res., 36, 1897–1910, 2000.
Kustas, W. P., Rango, A., and Uijlenhoet, R.: A simple energy budget algorithm for the snowmelt runoff model, Water Resour. Res., 30, 1515–1527, 1994.
Koolwine, T.: Freezing rain, MS thesis, Dept. of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada, 92 pp., 1975.
Lakhankar, T. Y., Muñoz, J., Romanov, P., Powell, A. M., Krakauer, N. Y., Rossow, W. B., and Khanbilvardi, R. M.: CREST-Snow Field Experiment: analysis of snowpack properties using multifrequency microwave remote sensing data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 783–793, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-783-2013, 2013.
Lang, H.: Forecasting meltwater runoff from snow-covered areas and from glacier basins, in: River Flow Modelling and Forecasting, edited by: Kraijenhoff, D. A. and Moll, J. R., D. Reidel, Springer Netherlands, 99–127, 1986.
Lupini, J. F., Skinner, A. E., and Vaughn, P. R.: The drained residual strength of cohesive soils, Geotechnique, 31, 181–213, 1981.
Madritsch, H. and Millen, B. M. J.: Hydrogeologic evidence for a continuous basal shear zone within a deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (Eastern Alps, Tyrol, Austria), Landslides, 4, 149–162, 2007.
Matsuo, T. and Sasyo, Y.: Non-melting phenomena of snowflakes observed in sub saturated air below freezing level, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 59, 26–32, 1981.
Matsuura, S., Asano, S., Okamoto, T., and Takeuchi, Y.: Characteristics of the displacement of a landslide with shallow sliding surface in a heavy snow district of Japan, Eng. Geol., 69, 15–35, 2003.
Matsuura, S., Asano, S., and Okamoto, T.: Relationship between rain and/or meltwater, pore-water pressure and displacement of a reactivated landslide, Eng. Geol., 101, 49–59, 2008.
Mayer, K., Müller-Koch, K., and von Poschinger, A.: Dealing with landslide hazards in the Bavarian Alps[C], in: Proceedings of the 1st European conference on landslides, Prague, Balkema, Rotterdam, 417–421, 2002.
Michiue, M.: A method for predicting slope failures on cliff and mountain due to heavy rain, Natural Disaster Science, 7, 1–12, 1985.
Murphy, A.: Skill scores based on the mean square error and their relationships to the correlation coefficient, Mon. Weather Rev., 116, 2417–2424, 1988.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through, Part I, a conceptual models discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, 1970.
Nickmann, M., Spaun, G., and Thuro, K.: Engineering geological classification of weak rocks, in: Proc. of the 10th International IAEG Congress, Nottingham, UK, 6 September 2006.
Nieuwenhuis, J. D.: Variations in the Stability and Displacements of a Shallow Seasonal Landslide in Varved Clays, PhD thesis, University Utrecht, The Netherlands Balkema, Rotterdam, 1991.
Nishii, R. and Matsuoka, N.: Monitoring rapid head scarp movement in an alpine rockslide, Eng. Geol., 115, 49–57, 2010.
Ohtsu, H., Janrungautai, S., and Takahashi, K.: A study on the slope risk evaluation due to rainfall using the simplified storage tank model, in: Proceeding of the 2nd Southeast Asia Workshop on Rock Engineering, Bangkok, Thailand, 67–72, 2003.
Picarelli, L.: Considerations about the mechanics of slow active landslides in clay, Progress in Landslide Science, in: edited by: Sassa, K., Fukuoka, H., Wang, F., and Wang, G., 27–57, 2007.
Rahardjo, H., Leong, E. C., and Rezaur, R, B.: Effect of antecedent rainfall on pore-water pressure distribution characteristics in residual soil slopes under tropical rainfall, Hydrol. Process., 22, 506–523, 2008.
Rahardjo, H., Nio, A. S., Leong, E. C., and Song, N. Y.: Effects of groundwater table position and soil properties on stability of slope during rainfall, J. Geotech. Geoenviron., 136, 1555–1564, 2010.
Rango, A. and Martinec, J.: Revisiting the degree-day method for snowmelt computations, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 31, 657–670, 1995.
Schaap, M. G. and Van Genuchten, M. T.: A modified Mualem–van Genuchten formulation for improved description of the hydraulic conductivity near saturation, Vadose Zone J., 5, 27–34, 2006.
Schmidt-thome, P.: Alpenraum, in: Erläuterungen geol, Kt. Bayern 1 : 500 000, 2nd Edn., edited by: Bayerisches Geologisches Landesamt (LFU), Munich (LfU), Land Oberösterreich, Abteilung Grund- und Trinkwasserwirtschaft, 244–297, 1964.
Schulz, W. H., McKenna, J. P., Kibler, J. D., and Biavati, G.: Relations between hydrology and velocity of a continuously moving landslide – evidence of pore-pressure feedback regulating landslide motion?, Landslides, 6, 181–190, 2009.
Sidle, R. C.: Field observations and process understanding in hydrology: essential components in scaling, Hydrol. Process., 20, 1439–1445, 2006.
Simoni, A., Berti, M., Generali, M., Elmi, C., and Ghirotti, M.: Preliminary results from pore pressure monitoring on an unstable clay slope, Eng. Geol., 73, 117–128, 2004.
Singer, J., Schuhbäck, S., Wasmeier, P., Thuro, K., Heunecke, O., Wunderlich, T., and Festl, J.: Monitoring the Aggenalm landslide using economic deformation measurement techniques, Austrian J. Earth Sci., 102, 20–34, 2009.
Skempton, A. W.: Residual strength of clays in landslides, folded strata and the laboratory, Geotechnique, 35, 3–18, 1985.
Suzuki, M. and Kobashi, S.: The critical rainfall for the disasters caused by slope failures, Journal of Japan Society of Erosion Control Engineering (Shin-Sabo), 34, 16–26, 1981.
Takahashi, K.: Research of underground water numerical analysis method that considering water cycle system, PhD thesis, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, 2004.
Takahashi, K., Ohnish, Y., Xiong, J., and Koyama, T.: Tank model and its application to groundwater table prediction of slope, Chin. J. Rock Mech. Eng., 27, 2501–2508, 2008.
Te Chow, V.: Runoff, in: Handbook of Applied Hydrology, Mc Graw Hill Book Comp, New York City, USA, 14.5–14.8, 1964.
Thuro, K., Wunderlich, T. and Heunecke, O., Singer, J., Schuhbäck, S., Wasmeier, P., Glabsch, J., and Festl, J.: Low cost 3-D early warning system for alpine instable slopes -the Aggenalm Landslide monitoring system, Kostengünstiges 3-D Frühwarnsystem für alpine instabile Hänge – Das Überwachungssystem der Aggenalm-Hangbewegung, Geomechanics and Tunnelling-Geomechanik and Tunnelbau, 3, 221–237, 2009.
Thuro, K., Singer, J., Festl, J., Wunderlich, T., Wasmeier, P., Reith, C., Heunecke, O., Glabsch, J., and Schuhbäck, S.: New landslide monitoring techniques–developments and experiences of the alpEWAS project, Journal of Applied Geodesy, 4, 69–90, 2010.
Thuro, K., Singer, J., and Festl, J.: A geosensor network based monitoring and early warning system for landslides, in: The Second World Landslide Forum, Abstract Book, edited by: Catani, F., Margottini, A., Trigila, A., and Iadanza, C., Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Rom, S. 267, 79–86, 2011a.
Thuro, K., Singer, J., and Festl, J.: Low cost 3-D early warning system for alpine instable slopes – the Aggenalm Landslide monitoring system, in: Slope stability 2011, International Symposium on Rock Slope Stability in Open Pit Mining and Civil Engineering, Vancouver, Canada, 18–21 September 2011, 12 pp., 2011b.
Thuro, K., Singer, J., and Festl, J.: A geosensor network based monitoring and early warning system for landslides, in: Landslide Science and Practice, Volume 2: Early Warning, Instrumentation and Monitoring, edited by: Margottini, C., Canuti, P., and Sassa, K., Springer, Heidelberg, New York, 79–86, 2013.
Tsaparas, I., Rahardjo, H., Toll, D. G., and Leong, E. C.: Controlling parameters for rainfall-induced landslides, Comput. Geotech., 29, 1–27, 2002.
Uchimura, T., Tanaka, R., Suzuki, D., and Yamada, S.: Evaluation of hydraulic properties of slope ground based on monitoring data of moisture contents, in: Proceedings of the 4th Japan-Taiwan Joint Workshop on Geotechnical Hazards from Large Earthquakes and Heavy Rainfalls, Sendai, Japan, 25–27 October 2010, 85–90, 2010.
Wagner, J. A.: Mean temperature from 1000 to 500 mb as a predictor of precipitation type, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 38, 584–590, 1957.
Wang, G. and Sassa, K.: Pore-pressure generation and movement of rainfall-induced landslides: effects of grain size and fine-particle content, Eng. Geol., 69, 109–125, 2003.
Weill, S., Mouche, E., and Patin, J.: A generalized Richards equation for surface/subsurface flow modelling, J. Hydrol., 366, 9–20, 2009.
Wilkinson, P. L., Brooks, S. M., and Anderson, M. G.: Investigating the effect of moisture extraction by vegetation upon slope stability: further developments of a combinedhydrology and stability model (CHASM), British Hydrological Society International Symposium on Hydrology in a Changing Environment, Theme 4: Hydrology of environmental hazards, Exeter, 165–178, 1998.
Wilkinson, P. L., Anderson, M. G., and Lloyd, D. M.: An integrated hydrological model for rain-induced landslide prediction, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 27, 1285–1297, 2002.
Xiong, J., Ohnish, Y., Takahashi, K., and Koyama, T.: Parameter determination of multi-tank model with dynamically dimensioned search, in: Proc. Symp. Rock mech. Jpn., Sendai, Japan, January 2009, 38, 19–24, 2009.
Yin, Y., Wang, H., Gao, Y., and Li, X.: Real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides at relocated Wushan Town, the Three Gorges Reservoir, China, Landslides, 7, 339–349, 2010.
Short summary
Deep-seated landslides are an important and widespread natural hazard within alpine regions and can have a massive impact on infrastructure. Pore water pressure plays an important role in determining the stability of hydro-triggered deep-seated landslides. Here we demonstrate a modified tank model for deep-seated landslides that includes snow and infiltration effects and can effectively predict changes in pore water pressure in alpine environments.
Deep-seated landslides are an important and widespread natural hazard within alpine regions and...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint