Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1697-1711, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1697-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
04 Oct 2017
Exploring spatial–temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain
Adrián Jiménez-Ruano, Marcos Rodrigues Mimbrero, and Juan de la Riva Fernández GEOFOREST Group, IUCA, Department of Geography and Land Management, University of Zaragoza, Pedro Cerbuna 12, 50 009, Zaragoza, Spain
Abstract. This paper explores spatial–temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterization. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial – regional and provincial/NUTS3 – levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974–2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures – Pettitt test, AMOC (at most one change), PELT (pruned exact linear time) and BinSeg (binary segmentation) – at a regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both the regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA) and varimax rotation to trend outputs – mainly Sen's slope values – to summarize overall temporal behaviour and to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features.

Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann–Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the northwestern provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Similarly, the Hinterland and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1), summer burnt area (PC2), large fires (PC3) and natural fires (PC4).


Citation: Jiménez-Ruano, A., Rodrigues Mimbrero, M., and de la Riva Fernández, J.: Exploring spatial–temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1697-1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1697-2017, 2017.
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Short summary
We explore spatial–temporal dynamics in fire regime features at different spatial levels, together with seasonal scales, from historical fire data (1974–2013). Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection and trend analysis. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s, with high spatial and intra-annual variability. PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components.
We explore spatial–temporal dynamics in fire regime features at different spatial levels,...
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