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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1795-1810, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
19 Oct 2017
Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts
Florian Pantillon et al.
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Interactive discussionStatus: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
 
RC1: 'Review of Pantillon et al. 2017', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 May 2017 Printer-friendly Version 
AC1: 'Reply to referee comment 1', Florian Pantillon, 28 Jul 2017 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC2: 'Review of “Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts” by Florian Pantillon, Peter Knippertz, and Ulrich Corsmeier', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 Jun 2017 Printer-friendly Version 
AC2: 'Reply to referee comment 2', Florian Pantillon, 28 Jul 2017 Printer-friendly Version 
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by Editor and Referees) (06 Aug 2017) by Ricardo Trigo  
AR by Florian Pantillon on behalf of the Authors (07 Aug 2017)  Author's response  Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (15 Aug 2017) by Ricardo Trigo
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (28 Aug 2017)  
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (08 Sep 2017)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by Editor) (14 Sep 2017) by Ricardo Trigo  
AR by Florian Pantillon on behalf of the Authors (15 Sep 2017)  Author's response  Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (18 Sep 2017) by Ricardo Trigo  
CC BY 4.0
Publications Copernicus
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Short summary
The predictability of 25 historical winter storms over Europe is revisited by taking advantage of a homogeneous dataset of retrospective forecasts for the 1995–2015 period. The forecasts well predict the storms up to 2–4 days ahead only but also show clear potential for the early warning of storms up to 10 days ahead. However, the predictability of individual storms exhibits large variability and physical characteristics are identified for outliers with a poor predictability.
The predictability of 25 historical winter storms over Europe is revisited by taking advantage...
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