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Volume 17, issue 10 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1795-1810, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 19 Oct 2017

Research article | 19 Oct 2017

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

Florian Pantillon et al.
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by Editor and Referees) (06 Aug 2017) by Ricardo Trigo
AR by Florian Pantillon on behalf of the Authors (07 Aug 2017)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (15 Aug 2017) by Ricardo Trigo
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (28 Aug 2017)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (08 Sep 2017)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by Editor) (14 Sep 2017) by Ricardo Trigo
AR by Florian Pantillon on behalf of the Authors (15 Sep 2017)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (18 Sep 2017) by Ricardo Trigo
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Short summary
The predictability of 25 historical winter storms over Europe is revisited by taking advantage of a homogeneous dataset of retrospective forecasts for the 1995–2015 period. The forecasts well predict the storms up to 2–4 days ahead only but also show clear potential for the early warning of storms up to 10 days ahead. However, the predictability of individual storms exhibits large variability and physical characteristics are identified for outliers with a poor predictability.
The predictability of 25 historical winter storms over Europe is revisited by taking advantage...
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