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Volume 17, issue 10 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1795-1810, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 19 Oct 2017

Research article | 19 Oct 2017

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

Florian Pantillon et al.
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Bechtold, P. and Bidlot, J.-R.: Parametrization of convective gusts, ECMWF Newsl., 119, 15–18, https://doi.org/10.21957/kfr42kfp8c, 2009.
Boisserie, M., Descamps, L., Arbogast, P., Boisserie, M., Descamps, L., and Arbogast, P.: Calibrated forecasts of extreme windstorms using the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT), Weather Forecast., 31, 1573–1589, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0027.1, 2016.
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Short summary
The predictability of 25 historical winter storms over Europe is revisited by taking advantage of a homogeneous dataset of retrospective forecasts for the 1995–2015 period. The forecasts well predict the storms up to 2–4 days ahead only but also show clear potential for the early warning of storms up to 10 days ahead. However, the predictability of individual storms exhibits large variability and physical characteristics are identified for outliers with a poor predictability.
The predictability of 25 historical winter storms over Europe is revisited by taking advantage...
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