Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1837-1856, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1837-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
24 Oct 2017
Assessment of evolution and risks of glacier lake outbursts in the Djungarskiy Alatau, Central Asia, using Landsat imagery and glacier bed topography modelling
Vassiliy Kapitsa1, Maria Shahgedanova2, Horst Machguth3,4, Igor Severskiy1, and Akhmetkal Medeu1 1Institute of Geography, Almaty, 050010, Kazakhstan
2Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AB, UK
3Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland
4Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, 1700, Switzerland
Abstract. Changes in the abundance and area of mountain lakes in the Djungarskiy (Jetysu) Alatau between 2002 and 2014 were investigated using Landsat imagery. The number of lakes increased by 6.2 % from 599 to 636 with a growth rate of 0.51 % a−1. The combined areas were 16.26 ± 0.85 to 17.35 ± 0.92 km2 respectively and the overall change was within the uncertainty of measurements. Fifty lakes, whose potential outburst can damage existing infrastructure, were identified. The glacier bed topography version 2 (GlabTop2) model was applied to simulate ice thickness and subglacial topography using glacier outlines for 2000 and SRTM DEM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model) as input data achieving realistic patterns of ice thickness. A total of 513 overdeepenings in the modelled glacier beds, presenting potential sites for the development of lakes, were identified with a combined area of 14.7 km2. Morphometric parameters of the modelled overdeepenings were close to those of the existing lakes. A comparison of locations of the overdeepenings and newly formed lakes in the areas de-glacierized in 2000–2014 showed that 67 % of the lakes developed at the sites of the overdeepenings. The rates of increase in areas of new lakes correlated with areas of modelled overdeepenings. Locations where hazardous lakes may develop in the future were identified. The GlabTop2 approach is shown to be a useful tool in hazard management providing data on the potential evolution of future lakes.

Citation: Kapitsa, V., Shahgedanova, M., Machguth, H., Severskiy, I., and Medeu, A.: Assessment of evolution and risks of glacier lake outbursts in the Djungarskiy Alatau, Central Asia, using Landsat imagery and glacier bed topography modelling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1837-1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1837-2017, 2017.
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Short summary
Changes in lake count and area in the region of Djungarskiy Alatau were assessed, showing that both increased by 6 % in 2002–2014 due to glacier melt. A total of 50 lakes were identified as potentially dangerous. GlabTop2 was used to simulate location and size of overdeepenings in the subglacier beds which present sites where lakes can develop in the future. The model predicted 67 % of lakes would form in the area de-glacierized in 2002–2014, correctly proving a useful tool in hazard management.
Changes in lake count and area in the region of Djungarskiy Alatau were assessed, showing that...
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