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Volume 17, issue 12 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2125-2141, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 04 Dec 2017

Research article | 04 Dec 2017

Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections

Renske C. de Winter et al.
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Bamber, J. L. and Aspinall, W. P.: An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets, Nature Climate Change, 3, 424–427, 2013.
Cazenave, A. and Le Cozannet, G.: Sea level rise and its coastal impacts, Earth's Future, 2, 15–34, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000188, 2014.
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A.: Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Clark, P. U., Church, J. A., Gregory, J. M., and Payne, A. J.: Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change, Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 224–246, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0024-4, 2015.
De Vries, H. and Van de Wal, R. S. W.: How to interpret expert judgment assessments of 21st century sea-level rise, Climatic Change, 130, 87–100, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1346-x, 2015.
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Short summary
This paper provides a full range of possible future sea levels on a regional scale, since it includes extreme, but possible, contributions to sea level change from dynamical mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. In contrast to the symmetric distribution used in the IPCC report, it is found that an asymmetric distribution toward high sea level change values locally can increase the mean sea level by 1.8 m this century.
This paper provides a full range of possible future sea levels on a regional scale, since it...
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