Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Jones, Robbie; Manville, Vern; Peakall, Jeff; Froude, Melanie J.; Odbert, Henry M.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2301-2017

Articles | Volume 17, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2301-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2301-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 12

Research article

|

13 Dec 2017

Research article |

| 13 Dec 2017

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Robbie Jones, Vern Manville, Jeff Peakall, Melanie J. Froude, and Henry M. Odbert

Data sets

Data associated with Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery Robbie Jones, Henry M. Odbert, and Montserrat Volcano Observatory https://doi.org/10.5518/297

Short summary

Rain-triggered lahars are significant secondary hazards at volcanoes where pyroclastic material is exposed to rainfall. Lahar risk mitigation typically relies upon ground-based flow detection or observation; however this study uses rainfall data and instrumental lahar records from the Belham valley, Montserrat, to devise new rain-triggered lahar prediction tools. These tools demonstrate the potential to effectively forecast lahars in real time, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates.