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Volume 17, issue 12 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2301-2312, 2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 13 Dec 2017

Research article | 13 Dec 2017

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Robbie Jones et al.
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Cited articles
Alexander, J., Barclay, J., Susnik, J., Loughlin, S. C., Herd, R. A., Darnell, A., and Crosweller, S.: Sediment-charged flash floods on Montserrat: the influence of synchronous tephra fall and varying extent of vegetation damage, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 194, 127–138,, 2010.
Arguden, A. and Rodolfo, K.: Sedimentologic and dynamic differences between hot and cold laharic debris flows of Mayon Volcano, Philippines, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 102, 865–876,<0865:saddbh>;2, 1990.
Auker, M. R., Sparks, R. S. J., Siebert, L., Crosweller, H. S., and Ewert, J.: A statistical analysis of the global historical volcanic fatalities record, J. Appl. Volcanol., 2, 2,, 2013.
Barclay, J., Johnstone, J. E., and Matthews, A. J.: Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: implications for eruption prediction, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 150, 339–358,, 2006.
Barclay, J., Alexander, J., and Susnik, J.: Rainfall-induced lahars in the Belham Valley, Montserrat, West Indies, J. Geol. Soc. London, 164, 815–827,, 2007.
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
Rain-triggered lahars are significant secondary hazards at volcanoes where pyroclastic material is exposed to rainfall. Lahar risk mitigation typically relies upon ground-based flow detection or observation; however this study uses rainfall data and instrumental lahar records from the Belham valley, Montserrat, to devise new rain-triggered lahar prediction tools. These tools demonstrate the potential to effectively forecast lahars in real time, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates.
Rain-triggered lahars are significant secondary hazards at volcanoes where pyroclastic material...