Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-505-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-505-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Mar 2017
Research article |
| 27 Mar 2017
Time clustering of wave storms in the Mediterranean Sea
Department of Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
Riccardo Briganti
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
Alessandro Romano
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, La Sapienza University, Rome, Italy
Lorenzo Mentaschi
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
Paolo De Girolamo
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, La Sapienza University, Rome, Italy
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This paper reviews the computation of vulnerability levels (VLs) of a coast to inundation with a known model. We refer to the original proposal, detailing the VL computation through an accurate investigation of the local wave climate. We prove that the resulting vulnerability is very sensitive due to the wave features taken into account, which have to be properly assessed. The research is the follow-up of a wider project set along the Bay of Lalzit (Albania).
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The climate is subject to variations which must be considered
studying the intensity and frequency of extreme events.
We introduce in this paper a new methodology
for the study of variable extremes, which consists in detecting
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to the analysis of the extreme events.
This technique comes with advantages with respect to the previous ones
in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and robustness.
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
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Hydrological models projecting the impact of changing climate carry a lot of uncertainty. Thus, these models usually have a multitude of simulations using different future climate data. This study used the subjective opinion of experts to assess which climate and hydrological models are the most likely to correctly predict climate impacts, thereby easing the computational burden. The experts could select more likely hydrological models, while the climate models were deemed equally probable.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5919–5935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, 2020
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Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels, showing that at 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 ×106 ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These effects are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.
Francesco De Leo, Sebastián Solari, and Giovanni Besio
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Francesco De Leo, Giovanni Besio, Guido Zolezzi, and Marco Bezzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 287–298, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-287-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-287-2019, 2019
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This paper reviews the computation of vulnerability levels (VLs) of a coast to inundation with a known model. We refer to the original proposal, detailing the VL computation through an accurate investigation of the local wave climate. We prove that the resulting vulnerability is very sensitive due to the wave features taken into account, which have to be properly assessed. The research is the follow-up of a wider project set along the Bay of Lalzit (Albania).
Lorenzo Mentaschi, Michalis Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Ludovica Sartini, Luc Feyen, Giovanni Besio, and Lorenzo Alfieri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3527–3547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, 2016
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The climate is subject to variations which must be considered
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We introduce in this paper a new methodology
for the study of variable extremes, which consists in detecting
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to the analysis of the extreme events.
This technique comes with advantages with respect to the previous ones
in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and robustness.
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Coastal flooding has severe socioeconomic impacts that are projected to increase under the changing climate. The present contribution reports on efforts towards a new methodology for mapping coastal flood hazard at European scale, combining the contribution of waves, improved inundation modeling and an open, physics-based framework which can be constantly upgraded whenever new and more accurate data become available.
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Shan Liu, Xianwu Shi, Qiang Liu, Jun Tan, Yuxi Sun, Qingrong Liu, and Haoshuang Guo
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Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Gabriela Medellín, Jorge A. Kurczyn, Roger Pacheco-Castro, Jaime Arriaga, Christian M. Appendini, María Eugenia Allende-Arandía, Juan A. Gómez, Gemma L. Franklin, and Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4063–4085, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, 2022
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Barrier islands in tropical regions are prone to coastal flooding and erosion during hurricane events. The Yucatán coast was impacted by hurricanes Gamma and Delta. Inner shelf, coastal, and inland observations were acquired. Beach morphology changes show alongshore gradients. Flooding occurred on the back barrier due to heavy inland rain and the coastal aquifer's confinement. Modeling systems failed to reproduce the coastal hydrodynamic response due to uncertainties in the boundary conditions.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
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Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
María Teresa Pedrosa-González, José Manuel González-Vida, Jesús Galindo-Záldivar, Sergio Ortega, Manuel Jesús Castro, David Casas, and Gemma Ercilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3839–3858, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, 2022
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The L-ML-HySEA (Landslide Multilayer Hyperbolic Systems and Efficient Algorithms) model of the tsunami triggered by the Storfjorden LS-1 landslide provides new insights into the sliding mechanism and bathymetry controlling the propagation, amplitude values and shoaling effects as well as coastal impact times. This case study provides new perspectives on tsunami hazard assessment in polar margins, where global climatic change and its related ocean warming may contribute to landslide trigger.
Cuneyt Yavuz, Kutay Yilmaz, and Gorkem Onder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3725–3736, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, 2022
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Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, 2022
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Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
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Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain understanding into the threat imposed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
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The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3167–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, 2022
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We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Havu Pellikka, Milla M. Johansson, Maaria Nordman, and Kimmo Ruosteenoja
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-230, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We explore the rate of past and future sea level rise on the Finnish coast, northeastern Baltic Sea, in 1901–2100. For this analysis, we use tide gauge observations, modelling results, and a probabilistic method to combine information from several sea level rise projections. We provide projections of local mean sea level in 2100 as probability distributions. The results can be used in adaptation planning in various sectors with different risk tolerance, e.g. land use planning or nuclear safety.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail Fata Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3083–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, 2022
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Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Ekaterina Didenkulova, Ira Didenkulova, and Igor Medvedev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-215, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The paper is dedicated to freak wave accidents which happened in the World Ocean in 2005–2021 and were described in mass media sources. The database accounts for 429 events, all of which resulted in ship or coastal/offshore structure damage and/or human losses. In correspondence to each freak wave event we put background wave and wind parameters extracted from the climate reanalysis ERA5. We analyze their statistics and discuss the favorable conditions of freak wave occurrence.
Alexander Müller, Birgit Gerkensmeier, Benedikt Bratz, Clemens Krautwald, Olaf Müller, Nils Goseberg, and Gabriele Gönnert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-223, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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External surges in the North Sea are caused by low pressure cells travelling over the Northeast Atlantic. They influence extreme water levels on the German coast and have to be considered in the design process of coastal defence structures. This study collects data about external surges from 1995–2020 and analyses their causes, behaviour and potential trends. External surges often occur less than 72 h apart, enabling a single storm surge to be influenced by more than one external surge.
Jorge León, Alejandra Gubler, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2857–2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, 2022
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Our research focuses on how the geophysical characteristics of coastal cities can determine evacuees' vulnerability during a tsunami evacuation. We identify, analyse, and rank some of those essential characteristics by examining seven case studies in Chile through computer-based inundation, evacuation, and statistical regressive modelling. These results could lead to urban planning guidelines to enhance future evacuations and increase resilience to global tsunamis.
Azucena Román-de la Sancha, Rodolfo Silva, Omar S. Areu-Rangel, Manuel Gerardo Verduzco-Zapata, Edgar Mendoza, Norma Patricia López-Acosta, Alexandra Ossa, and Silvia García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, 2022
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Transport networks in coastal urban areas are vulnerable to seismic events, with damage likely due to both ground motions and tsunami loading. The paper presents an approach that captures the earthquake–tsunami effects on transport infrastructure in a coastal area, taking into consideration the combined strains of the two events. The model is applied to a case in Manzanillo, Mexico, using ground motion records of the 1995 earthquake–tsunami event.
Tien-Chi Liu, Tso-Ren Wu, and Shu-Kun Hsu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2517–2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, 2022
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The findings from historical reports and numerical studies suggest the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and the 1782 tsunami should be two independent incidents. Local tsunamis generated in southwest Taiwan could be responsible for the 1781 flooding, while the existence of the 1782 tsunami remains doubtful. With the documents of a storm event on 22 May 1782, the possibility that the significant water level of the 1782 tsunami was caused by storm surges or multiple hazards could not be ignored.
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, 2022
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Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, 2022
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The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, 2022
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Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Kerry Emanuel, Yann Krien, Laurent Testut, and A. K. M. Saiful Islam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2359–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022, 2022
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Cyclonic storm surges constitute a major threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline of the Bengal delta. From a combination of cyclone and storm surge modelling, we present a robust probabilistic estimate of the storm surge flooding hazard under the current climate. The estimated extreme water levels vary regionally, and the inland flooding is strongly controlled by the embankments. More than 1/10 of the coastal population is currently exposed to 50-year return period flooding.
Hanqing Xu, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Qinghua Ye, Elisa Ragno, Jeremy Bricker, Ganquan Mao, Jinkai Tan, Jun Wang, Qian Ke, Shuai Wang, and Ralf Toumi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022, 2022
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A hydrodynamic model and copula methodology were used to set up a joint distribution of the peak water level and the inland rainfall during tropical cyclone periods, and to calculate the marginal contributions of the individual drivers. The results indicate that the relative sea level rise has significantly amplified the peak water level. The astronomical tide is the leading driver, followed by the contribution from the storm surge.
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1863–1891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, 2022
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Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.
Elin Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel, and Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-149, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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When natural hazards interact in compound events, they may reinforce each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels when storms occur when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge and showed that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
Wei Chen, Joanna Staneva, Sebastian Grayek, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, and Jens Greinert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1683–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1683-2022, 2022
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This study links the occurrence and persistence of density stratification in the southern North Sea to the increased number of extreme marine heat waves. The study further identified the role of the cold spells at the early stage of a year to the intensity of thermal stratification in summer. In a broader context, the research will have fundamental significance for further discussion of the secondary effects of heat wave events, such as in ecosystems, fisheries, and sediment dynamics.
Raquel P. Felix, Judith A. Hubbard, Kyle E. Bradley, Karen H. Lythgoe, Linlin Li, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1665–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1665-2022, 2022
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The Flores Thrust lies along the north coasts of Bali and Lombok. We model how an earthquake on this fault could trigger a tsunami that would impact the regional capital cities of Mataram and Denpasar. We show that for 3–5 m of slip on the fault (a Mw 7.5–7.9+ earthquake), the cities would experience a wave ca. 1.6–2.7 and ca. 0.6–1.4 m high, arriving in < 9 and ca. 23–27 min, respectively. They would also experience subsidence of 20–40 cm, resulting in long-term exposure to coastal hazards.
Keighobad Jafarzadegan, David F. Muñoz, Hamed Moftakhari, Joseph L. Gutenson, Gaurav Savant, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1419–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1419-2022, 2022
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The high population settled in coastal regions and the potential damage imposed by coastal floods highlight the need for improving coastal flood hazard assessment techniques. This study introduces a topography-based approach for rapid estimation of flood hazard areas in the Savannah River delta. Our validation results demonstrate that, besides the high efficiency of the proposed approach, the estimated areas accurately overlap with reference flood maps.
Kenta Tozato, Shinsuke Takase, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Yu Otake, Yo Fukutani, Kazuya Nojima, Masaaki Sakuraba, and Hiromu Yokosu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1267-2022, 2022
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This study presents a novel framework for rapid tsunami force predictions through the application of mode-decomposition-based surrogate modeling with 2D–3D coupled numerical simulations. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework to one of the tsunami-affected areas during the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011.
Yuchen Wang, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Kenji Satake, and Gui Hu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1073–1082, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1073-2022, 2022
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Tsunami waveforms contain the features of its source, propagation path, and local topography. On 4 March 2021, two tsunamis were generated by earthquakes in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, within 2 h. This rare case gives us a valuable opportunity to study the characteristics of two tsunamis. We analyzed the records of two tsunamis at tide gauges with spectral analysis tools. It is found that two tsunamis superpose during the few hours after the arrival of the second tsunami.
Shuyun Dong, Wayne J. Stephenson, Sarah Wakes, Zhongyuan Chen, and Jianzhong Ge
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 931–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-931-2022, 2022
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Mesoscale simulation provides a general approach that could be implemented to fulfill the purpose of planning and has relatively low requirements for computation time and data while still providing reasonable accuracy. The method is generally applicable to all coastal cities around the world for examining the effect of future climate change on typhoon-generated storm surge even where historical observed data are inadequate or not available.
Chatuphorn Somphong, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Tsuyoshi Nagasawa, Yuya Narita, Ryunosuke Tawatari, Shohei Iwai, Yukio Mabuchi, Saneiki Fujita, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Cipta Athanasius, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 891–907, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-891-2022, 2022
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The majority of past research used hypothesized landslides to simulate tsunamis, but they were still unable to properly explain the observed data. In this study, submarine landslides were simulated by using a slope-failure-theory-based numerical model for the first time. The findings were verified with post-event field observational data. They indicated the potential presence of submarine landslide sources in the southern part of the bay and were consistent with the observational tsunamis.
Lea Uebelhoer, William Koon, Mitchell D. Harley, Jasmin C. Lawes, and Robert W. Brander
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 909–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-909-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-909-2022, 2022
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Beachgoers at unpatrolled Australian beaches were surveyed to gain an understanding of their demographics, beach safety knowledge, and behaviour. Most visited unpatrolled beaches out of convenience and because they wanted to visit a quiet location. Despite being infrequent beachgoers, with poor swimming and hazard identification skills, most intended to enter the water. Authorities should go beyond the
swim between the flagssafety message, as people will always swim at unpatrolled beaches.
Ryuichi Kanai, Masashi Kamogawa, Toshiyasu Nagao, Alan Smith, and Serge Guillas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 849–868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-849-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-849-2022, 2022
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The air pressure created by a tsunami causes a depression in the electron density in the ionosphere. The depression is measured at sparsely distributed, moving GPS satellite locations. We provide an estimate of the volume of the depression. When applied to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, our method can warn of a tsunami event within 15 min of the earthquake, even when using only 5 % of the data. Thus satellite-based warnings could be implemented across the world with our approach.
Riccardo Alvise Mel, Teresa Lo Feudo, Massimo Miceli, Salvatore Sinopoli, and Mario Maiolo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-67, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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In this work we present a coupled modelling system to compute the wind climate and the hydrodynamic two-dimensional field in coastal areas, with particular reference to the Marine Experimental Station of Capo Tirone (Italy). We combined sea level rise and extreme storm projections with the most recent georeferenced territorial data.
Milla M. Johansson, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Jani Särkkä, Ulpu Leijala, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 813–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-813-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-813-2022, 2022
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We analysed the correlation of sea level and wind waves at a coastal location in the Gulf of Finland using tide gauge data, wave measurements, and wave simulations. The correlation was positive for southwesterly winds and negative for northeasterly winds. Probabilities of high total water levels (sea level + wave crest) are underestimated if sea level and waves are considered independent. Suitably chosen copula functions can account for the dependence.
Jairo E. Cueto, Luis J. Otero Díaz, Silvio R. Ospino-Ortiz, and Alec Torres-Freyermuth
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 713–728, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-713-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-713-2022, 2022
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We investigate the importance of morphodynamics on flooding estimation during storms with sea level rise conditions on a microtidal beach. XBeach and SWAN were the numerical models used to test several case studies. The results indicate that numerical modeling of flooding should be approached by considering morphodynamics; ignoring them can underestimate flooding by ~ 15 %. Moreover, beach erosion and flooding are intensified by sea level rise and high tides in ~ 69 % and ~ 65 %, respectively.
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-28, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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In the shallow waters off the coast of Norderney in the southern North Sea, more rogue waves were measured than expected. We investigate whether solitons could play a role in this enhanced occurrence. We find that at least one soliton is associated with each measured rogue wave and that time series with and without rogue waves show different characteristic soliton spectra, implying that solitons play a role for the formation of at least some shallow water rogue waves.
Matthew W. Hayward, Colin N. Whittaker, Emily M. Lane, William L. Power, Stéphane Popinet, and James D. L. White
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 617–637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-617-2022, 2022
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Volcanic eruptions can produce tsunamis through multiple mechanisms. We present validation cases for a numerical method used in simulating waves caused by submarine explosions: a laboratory flume experiment and waves generated by explosions at field scale. We then demonstrate the use of the scheme for simulating analogous volcanic eruptions, illustrating the resulting wavefield. We show that this scheme models such dispersive sources more proficiently than standard tsunami models.
Ario Muhammad, Katsuichiro Goda, and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-59, 2022
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
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This study develops a novel framework of time-dependent (TD) probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) combining a total of ≥ 100,000 spatiotemporal earthquakes (EQ) rupture models and 6,300 probabilistic tsunami simulations to evaluate the tsunami hazards and compare them with the time-independent (TI) PTHA results. The proposed model can capture the uncertainty of future TD tsunami hazards and produces slightly higher hazard estimates than the TI model for short-term periods (< 30 years).
Ryota Wada, Jeremy Rohmer, Yann Krien, and Philip Jonathan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 431–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-431-2022, 2022
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Characterizing extreme wave environments caused by tropical cyclones in the Caribbean Sea near Guadeloupe is difficult because cyclones rarely pass near the location of interest. STM-E (space-time maxima and exposure) model utilizes wave data during cyclones on a spatial neighbourhood. Long-duration wave data generated from a database of synthetic tropical cyclones are used to evaluate the performance of STM-E. Results indicate STM-E provides estimates with small bias and realistic uncertainty.
Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Jeremy D. Bricker, Remi Meynadier, Trang Minh Duong, Rosh Ranasinghe, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 345–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, 2022
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Extratropical cyclones are one of the major causes of coastal floods in Europe and the world. Understanding the development process and the flooding of storm Xynthia, together with the damages that occurred during the storm, can help to forecast future losses due to other similar storms. In the present paper, an analysis of shallow water variables (flood depth, velocity, etc.) or coastal variables (significant wave height, energy flux, etc.) is done in order to develop damage curves.
Sunna Kupfer, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Lara van Niekerk, Melanie Lück-Vogel, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 187–205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-187-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-187-2022, 2022
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In coastal regions, flooding can occur from combined tides, storms, river discharge, and waves. Effects of waves are commonly neglected when assessing flooding, although these may strongly contribute to extreme water levels. We find that waves combined with tides and river discharge at Breede Estuary, South Africa, increased flood extent and depth and caused earlier flooding than when waves were neglected. This highlights the need to consider all major flood drivers in future flood assessments.
Xin Liu, Insa Meinke, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 97–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-97-2022, 2022
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Storm surges represent a threat to low-lying coastal areas. In the aftermath of severe events, it is often discussed whether the events were unusual. Such information is not readily available from observations but needs contextualization with long-term statistics. An approach that provides such information in near real time was developed and implemented for the German coast. It is shown that information useful for public and scientific debates can be provided in near real time.
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Wadey, M. P., Haigh, I. D., and Brown, J. M.: A century of sea level data and the UK's 2013/14 storm surges: an assessment of extremes and clustering using the Newlyn tide gauge record, Ocean Sci., 10, 1031–1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, 2014.
Short summary
Results of 36-years of hindcast in the Mediterranean Sea are analysed to detect time clustering of wave storms using the Allan factor. The analysis reveals that some areas of the basin are characterized by storm clustering for timescales t < 50 days, while seasonality is dominant at large scales. The findings highlight a deviation from the Poisson distribution in some sub-basins of the Mediterranean Sea. Implications for coastal erosion/flooding need to be studied further.
Results of 36-years of hindcast in the Mediterranean Sea are analysed to detect time clustering...
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