Characterizing severe weather potential in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm environments

Miller, Paul W.; Mote, Thomas L.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1261-2018

Articles | Volume 18, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1261-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1261-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 4

Research article

|

27 Apr 2018

Research article |

| 27 Apr 2018

Characterizing severe weather potential in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm environments

Paul W. Miller and Thomas L. Mote

Data sets

NEXRAD data archive, inventory and access NCEI https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Rapid Refresh analysis NOMADS archive NCEP ftp://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/RUC/analysis_only/

Short summary

The likelihood of severe weather events in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm (WFT) environments is best characterized by lapse-rate-based parameters. These measures, also among the most accurate model-derived variables, are posited to best capture the subtle convective environmental differences that favor WFT severity. Forecasters should consider weighting their WFT forecasts in favor of lapse-rate-based parameters over others that may be more sensitive to model biases.