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NHESS | Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 27 Jul 2018

Research article | 27 Jul 2018

Changing seasonality of moderate and extreme precipitation events in the Alps

Stefan Brönnimann et al.
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Cited articles  
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, 2002. 
Ban, N., Schmidli, J., and Schär, C.: Evaluation of the convection-resolving regional climate modelling approach in decade-long simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 7889–7907, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021478, 2014. 
Ban, N., Schmidli, J., and Schär, C.: Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1165–1172, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062588, 2015. 
Bezzola, G. R. and Ruf, W. (Edd.): Ereignisanalyse Hochwasser August 2007, in: Analyse der Meteo- und Abflussvorhersagen; vertiefte Analyse der Hochwasserregulierung der Jurarandgewässer, Umwelt-Wissen Nr. 0927, Bundesamt für Umwelt, Bern, 209 pp., 2009. 
Bhend, J., Franke, J., Folini, D., Wild, M., and Brönnimann, S.: An ensemble-based approach to climate reconstructions, Clim. Past, 8, 963–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-963-2012, 2012. 
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Short summary
Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the...
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