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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 18, issue 8 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2143-2160, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2143-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 10 Aug 2018

Research article | 10 Aug 2018

Development and application of a tsunami fragility curve of the 2015 tsunami in Coquimbo, Chile

Rafael Aránguiz1,2, Luisa Urra3, Ryo Okuwaki4, and Yuji Yagi5 Rafael Aránguiz et al.
  • 1Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile
  • 2National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management CONICYT/FONDAP/1511007 (CIGIDEN), Santiago, Chile
  • 3Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics for Disaster Management, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Tohoku, Japan
  • 4Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
  • 5Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan

Abstract. The last earthquake that affected the city of Coquimbo took place in September 2015 and had a magnitude of Mw = 8.3, resulting in localized damage in low-lying areas of the city. In addition, another seismic gap north of the 2015 earthquake rupture area has been identified; therefore, a significant earthquake (Mw = 8.2 to 8.5) and tsunami could occur in the near future. The present paper develops a tsunami fragility curve for the city of Coquimbo based on field survey data and tsunami numerical simulations. The inundation depth of the 2015 Chile tsunami in Coquimbo was estimated by means of numerical simulation with the Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs (NEOWAVE) model and five nested grids with a maximum grid resolution of 10m. The fragility curve exhibited behavior similar to that of other curves in flat areas in Japan, where little damage was observed at relatively high inundation depths. In addition, it was observed that Coquimbo experienced less damage than Dichato (Chile); in fact, at an inundation depth of 2m, Dichato had a  ∼ 75% probability of damage, while Coquimbo proved to have only a 20% probability. The new fragility curve was used to estimate the damage by possible future tsunamis in the area. The damage assessment showed that  ∼ 50% of the structures in the low-lying area of Coquimbo have a high probability of damage in the case of a tsunami generated off the coast of the study area if the city is rebuilt with the same types of structures.

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The present research applies a methodology to estimate tsunami damage in a city in northern Chile which was recently affected by a tsunami and is now under reconstruction. The results are in good agreement with other results from plains in Japan, where low damage was observed at relatively high inundation depths. In addition, the damage assessment showed a significant impact in the city in the case of a new tsunami event if the city is rebuilt with the same type of structures.
The present research applies a methodology to estimate tsunami damage in a city in northern...
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