Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 2.281 IF 2.281
  • IF 5-year value: 2.693 IF 5-year 2.693
  • CiteScore value: 2.43 CiteScore 2.43
  • SNIP value: 1.193 SNIP 1.193
  • SJR value: 0.965 SJR 0.965
  • IPP value: 2.31 IPP 2.31
  • h5-index value: 40 h5-index 40
  • Scimago H index value: 73 Scimago H index 73
Volume 18, issue 8 | Copyright

Special issue: Landslide early warning systems: monitoring systems, rainfall...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2183-2202, 2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 16 Aug 2018

Research article | 16 Aug 2018

Probabilistic landslide ensemble prediction systems: lessons to be learned from hydrology

Ekrem Canli1, Martin Mergili1,2, Benni Thiebes1,3, and Thomas Glade1 Ekrem Canli et al.
  • 1Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Universitätsstraße 7, 1010 Vienna, Austria
  • 2Institute of Applied Geology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Gregor-Mendel-Straße 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
  • 3German Committee for Disaster Reduction (DKKV), Kaiser-Friedrich-Straße 13, 53113 Bonn, Germany

Abstract. Landslide forecasting and early warning has a long tradition in landslide research and is primarily carried out based on empirical and statistical approaches, e.g., landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. In the last decade, flood forecasting started the operational mode of so-called ensemble prediction systems following the success of the use of ensembles for weather forecasting. These probabilistic approaches acknowledge the presence of unavoidable variability and uncertainty when larger areas are considered and explicitly introduce them into the model results. Now that highly detailed numerical weather predictions and high-performance computing are becoming more common, physically based landslide forecasting for larger areas is becoming feasible, and the landslide research community could benefit from the experiences that have been reported from flood forecasting using ensemble predictions. This paper reviews and summarizes concepts of ensemble prediction in hydrology and discusses how these could facilitate improved landslide forecasting. In addition, a prototype landslide forecasting system utilizing the physically based TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability) model is presented to highlight how such forecasting systems could be implemented. The paper concludes with a discussion of challenges related to parameter variability and uncertainty, calibration and validation, and computational concerns.

Publications Copernicus
Special issue
Short summary
Regional-scale landslide forecasting traditionally strongly relies on empirical approaches and landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. Today, probabilistic methods utilizing ensemble predictions are frequently used for flood forecasting. In our study, we specify how such an approach could also be applied for landslide forecasts and for operational landslide forecasting and early warning systems. To this end, we implemented a physically based landslide model in a probabilistic framework.
Regional-scale landslide forecasting traditionally strongly relies on empirical approaches and...