Articles | Volume 18, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2273-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2273-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Estimating network related risks: A methodology and an application in the transport sector
Institute of Construction and Infrastructure Management, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Institute of Construction and Infrastructure Management, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Magnus Heitzler
Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Bryan T. Adey
Institute of Construction and Infrastructure Management, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Lorenz Hurni
Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Related authors
No articles found.
René Sieber and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 6, 235, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-6-235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-6-235-2023, 2023
René Sieber and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 5, 11, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-5-11-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-5-11-2022, 2022
S. Wu, M. Heitzler, and L. Hurni
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B4-2022, 189–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2022-189-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2022-189-2022, 2022
X. Xia, M. Heitzler, and L. Hurni
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B2-2022, 1167–1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2022-1167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2022-1167-2022, 2022
C. Jiao, M. Heitzler, and L. Hurni
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-2-2022, 423–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-2-2022-423-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-2-2022-423-2022, 2022
Katharina Henggeler and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 3, 107, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-107-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-107-2021, 2021
Chenjing Jiao, Magnus Heitzler, and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 3, 128, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-128-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-128-2021, 2021
Raimund Schnürer, A. Cengiz Öztireli, Magnus Heitzler, René Sieber, and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 3, 262, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-262-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-262-2021, 2021
Chenjing Jiao and Lorenz Hurni
Proc. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 4, 47, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-proc-4-47-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-proc-4-47-2021, 2021
Raimund Schnürer, Cédric Dind, Stefan Schalcher, Pascal Tschudi, and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 2, 28, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-2-28-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-2-28-2020, 2020
Marianna Farmakis-Serebryakova and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 1, 74, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-74-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-74-2019, 2019
Christian Haeberling, Katharina Henggeler, and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 1, 104, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-104-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-104-2019, 2019
Magnus Heitzler and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 1, 110, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-110-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-110-2019, 2019
Lorenz Hurni, Charalampos Gkonos, and Hans-Rudolf Baer
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 1, 132, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-132-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-132-2019, 2019
Stefan Räber and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 1, 305, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-305-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-305-2019, 2019
Michael Schmuki, René Sieber, and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 1, 323, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-323-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-323-2019, 2019
Raimund Schnürer, Cengiz Öztireli, René Sieber, and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 1, 324, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-324-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-324-2019, 2019
René Sieber, Remo Eichenberger, and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 1, 338, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-338-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-338-2019, 2019
Raphael Vomsattel, René Sieber, and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 1, 384, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-384-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-384-2019, 2019
Wenke Zimmermann and Lorenz Hurni
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 1, 441, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-441-2019, 2019
Cristina M. Iosifescu Enescu and Lorenz Hurni
Proc. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 2, 48, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-proc-2-48-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-proc-2-48-2019, 2019
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Public intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behavior
An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentalization of Landslide Early Warning Systems
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Quantifying the potential benefits of risk-mitigation strategies on future flood losses in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Review article: Potential of nature-based solutions to mitigate hydro-meteorological risks in sub-Saharan Africa
Invited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modelling
Classifying marine faults for hazard assessment offshore Israel: a new approach based on fault size and vertical displacement
Assessing agriculture's vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regions
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Tsunami risk perception in central and southern Italy
Brief communication: Critical infrastructure impacts of the 2021 mid-July western European flood event
Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models
Building-scale flood loss estimation through vulnerability pattern characterization: application to an urban flood in Milan, Italy
Process-based flood damage modelling relying on expert knowledge: a methodological contribution applied to the agricultural sector
Dynamic risk assessment of compound hazards based on VFS–IEM–IDM: a case study of typhoon–rainstorm hazards in Shenzhen, China
Integrated seismic risk assessment in Nepal
Machine learning models to predict myocardial infarctions from past climatic and environmental conditions
Reliability of flood marks and practical relevance for flood hazard assessment in southwestern Germany
Invited perspectives: Managed realignment as a solution to mitigate coastal flood risks – optimizing success through knowledge co-production
Invited perspectives: Views of 350 natural hazard community members on key challenges in natural hazards research and the Sustainable Development Goals
Estimating return intervals for extreme climate conditions related to winter disasters and livestock mortality in Mongolia
Surveying the surveyors to address risk perception and adaptive-behaviour cross-study comparability
Comparison of sustainable flood risk management by four countries – the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the United States, and Japan – and the implications for Asian coastal megacities
Projected impact of heat on mortality and labour productivity under climate change in Switzerland
Full-scale experiments to examine the role of deadwood in rockfall dynamics in forests
Predicting drought and subsidence risks in France
The determinants affecting the intention of urban residents to prepare for flood risk in China
Strategic framework for natural disaster risk mitigation using deep learning and cost-benefit analysis
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Invited perspectives: Challenges and step changes for natural hazard – perspectives from the German Committee for Disaster Reduction (DKKV)
Invited perspectives: When research meets practice: challenges, opportunities, and suggestions from the implementation of the Floods Directive in the largest Italian river basin
Rapid landslide risk zoning toward multi-slope units of the Neikuihui tribe for preliminary disaster management
INSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)
Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps
Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment
Education, financial aid, and awareness can reduce smallholder farmers' vulnerability to drought under climate change
Regional county-level housing inventory predictions and the effects on hurricane risk
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Marta Sapena, Mortiz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-41, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of Early Warning Systems (EWSs) in landslide-prone areas is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify high-risk locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that EWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from €5 to €41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outlines the challenges and opportunities for successful EWS implementation.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1393, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models well represented the event and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. It highlights that their use may be considered an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
Pauline Brémond, Anne-Laurence Agenais, Frédéric Grelot, and Claire Richert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3385–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is impossible to protect all issues against flood risk. To prioritise protection, economic analyses are conducted. The French Ministry of the Environment wanted to make available damage functions that we have developed for several sectors. For this, we propose a methodological framework and apply it to the model we have developed to assess damage to agriculture. This improves the description, validation, transferability and updatability of models based on expert knowledge.
Wenwu Gong, Jie Jiang, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3271–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a model named variable fuzzy set and information diffusion (VFS–IEM–IDM) to assess the dynamic risk of compound hazards, which takes into account the interrelations between the hazard drivers, deals with the problem of data sparsity, and considers the temporal dynamics of the occurrences of the compound hazards. To examine the efficacy of the proposed VFS–IEM–IDM model, a case study of typhoon–rainstorm risks in Shenzhen, China, is presented.
Sanish Bhochhibhoya and Roisha Maharjan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3211–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This is a comprehensive approach to risk assessment that considers the dynamic relationship between loss and damage. The study combines physical risk with social science to mitigate the disaster caused by earthquakes in Nepal, taking socioeconomical parameters into account such that the risk estimates can be monitored over time. The main objective is to recognize the cause of and solutions to seismic hazard, building the interrelationship between individual, natural, and built-in environments.
Lennart Marien, Mahyar Valizadeh, Wolfgang zu Castell, Christine Nam, Diana Rechid, Alexandra Schneider, Christine Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen, Kathrin Wolf, and Laurens M. Bouwer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3015–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Myocardial infarctions (MIs; heart attacks) are influenced by temperature extremes, air pollution, lack of green spaces and ageing population. Here, we apply machine learning (ML) models in order to estimate the influence of various environmental and demographic risk factors. The resulting ML models can accurately reproduce observed annual variability in MI and inter-annual trends. The models allow quantification of the importance of individual factors and can be used to project future risk.
Annette Sophie Bösmeier, Iso Himmelsbach, and Stefan Seeger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2963–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we collected a large number of marks along the Kinzig, southwestern Germany, and tested them for plausibility and temporal continuance. Despite uncertainty, the marks appeared to be an overall consistent and practical source that may also increase flood risk awareness. A wide agreement between the current flood hazard maps and the collected flood marks moreover indicated a robust local hazard assessment.
Mark Schuerch, Hannah L. Mossman, Harriet E. Moore, Elizabeth Christie, and Joshua Kiesel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2879–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal nature-based solutions to adapt to sea-level rise, such as managed realignments (MRs), are becoming increasingly popular amongst scientists and coastal managers. However, local communities often oppose these projects, partly because scientific evidence for their efficiency is limited. Here, we propose a framework to work with stakeholders and communities to define success variables of MR projects and co-produce novel knowledge on the projects’ efficiency to mitigate coastal flood risks.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Masahiko Haraguchi, Nicole Davi, Mukund Palat Rao, Caroline Leland, Masataka Watanabe, and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2751–2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mass livestock mortality during severe winters (dzud in Mongolian) is a compound event. Summer droughts are a precondition for dzud. We estimate the return levels of relevant variables: summer drought conditions and minimum winter temperature. The result shows that the return levels of drought conditions vary over time. Winter severity, however, is constant. We link climatic factors to socioeconomic impacts and draw attention to the need for index insurance.
Samuel Rufat, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Alexander Fekete, Emeline Comby, Peter J. Robinson, Iuliana Armaş, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2655–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever-richer information available. To improve the ability of researchers to build cumulative knowledge, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the accumulation of evidence. We offer several recommendations for future studies.
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Liang Emlyn Yang, Gordon Mitchell, Nigel Wright, Mingfu Guan, Xiaohui Lu, Zilin Wang, Burrell Montz, and Olalekan Adekola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2567–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) has become popular since the 1980s. This study examines the past and present flood management experiences in four developed countries (UK, the Netherlands, USA, and Japan) that have frequently suffered floods. We analysed ways towards SFRM among Asian coastal cities, which are still reliant on a hard-engineering approach that is insufficient to reduce future flood risk. We recommend stakeholders adopt mixed options to undertake SFRM practices.
Zélie Stalhandske, Valentina Nesa, Marius Zumwald, Martina S. Ragettli, Alina Galimshina, Niels Holthausen, Martin Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2531–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We model the impacts of heat on both mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland in a changing climate. We estimate 658 heat-related death currently per year in Switzerland and CHF 665 million in losses in labour productivity. Should we remain on a high-emissions pathway, these values may double or even triple by the end of the century. Under a lower-emissions scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak by around mid-century.
Adrian Ringenbach, Elia Stihl, Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Guang Lu, Andreas Stoffel, Martin Kistler, Sandro Degonda, Kevin Simmler, Daniel Mader, and Andrin Caviezel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2433–2443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forests have a recognized braking effect on rockfalls. The impact of lying deadwood, however, is mainly neglected. We conducted 1 : 1-scale rockfall experiments in three different states of a spruce forest to fill this knowledge gap: the original forest, the forest including lying deadwood and the cleared area. The deposition points clearly show that deadwood has a protective effect. We reproduced those experimental results numerically, considering three-dimensional cones to be deadwood.
Arthur Charpentier, Molly James, and Hani Ali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting consequences of drought episodes is complex, all the more when focusing on subsidence. We use 20 years of insurer data to derive a model to predict both the intensity and the severity of such events, using geophysical and climatic information located in space and time.
Tiantian Wang, Yunmeng Lu, Tiezhong Liu, Yujiang Zhang, Xiaohan Yan, and Yi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2185–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the main determinants influencing urban residents' intention to prepare for flood risk in China, we developed an integrated theoretical framework based on protection motivation theory (PMT) and validated it with structural equation modeling. The results showed that both threat perception and coping appraisal were effective in increasing residents' intention to prepare. In addition, individual heterogeneity and social context also had an impact on preparedness intentions.
Ji-Myong Kim, Sang-Guk Yum, Hyunsoung Park, and Junseo Bae
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2131–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Insurance data has been utilized with deep learning techniques to predict natural disaster damage losses in South Korea.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Benni Thiebes, Ronja Winkhardt-Enz, Reimund Schwarze, and Stefan Pickl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1969–1972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The worldwide challenge of the present as well as the future is to navigate the global community to a sustainable and secure future. Humanity is increasingly facing multiple risks under more challenging conditions. The continuation of climate change and the ever more frequent occurrence of extreme, multi-hazard, and cascading events are interacting with increasingly complex and interconnected societies.
Tommaso Simonelli, Laura Zoppi, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper discusses challenges (and solutions) emerged during a collaboration among practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists in the definition of flood damage maps in the Po River District. Social aspects were proven to be fundamental components of the risk assessment; variety of competences in the working group was key in finding solutions and revealing weaknesses of intermediate proposals. This paper finally highlights the need of duplicating such an experience at a broader European level.
Chih-Chung Chung and Zih-Yi Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Neikuihui tribe in northern Taiwan faces landslides during rainfall events. Since the government needs to respond with disaster management for the most at-risk tribes, this study develops rapid risk zoning, which involves the susceptibility, activity, exposure, and vulnerability of each slope unit of the area. Results reveal that one of the slope units of the Neikuihui tribal area has a higher risk and did suffer a landslide during the typhoon in 2016.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Max Schneider, Michelle McDowell, Peter Guttorp, E. Ashley Steel, and Nadine Fleischhut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Caroline J. Williams, Rachel A. Davidson, Linda K. Nozick, Joseph E. Trainor, Meghan Millea, and Jamie L. Kruse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1055–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A neural network model based on publicly available data was developed to forecast the number of housing units for each of 1000 counties in the southeastern United States in each of the next 20 years. The estimated number of housing units is almost always (97 % of the time) less than 1 percentage point different than the observed number, which are predictive errors acceptable for most practical purposes. The housing unit projections can help quantify changes in future expected hurricane impacts.
Cited articles
ADEPT: Climate Change and Evolved Pavements, CSS Research Project 78,
Association of Directors of Environment, Economy, Planning and Transport,
2011. a
Adey, B. T., Hackl, J., Lam, J. C., Van Gelder, P., Prak, P. P., Van Erp,
N., Heitzler, M., Iosifescu-Enescu, I., and Hurni, L.: Ensuring acceptable
levels of infrastructure related risks due to Nat. Hazards with emphasis
on conducting stress tests, in: 1st International Symposium on
Infrastructure Asset Management (SIAM2016), edited by: Kobayashi, K., Tamura,
K., and Kaito, K., 19–29, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, 2016. a
ALA: Flood-Resistant Local Road Systems: A Report Based on Case Studies,
Report, American Lifelines Alliance, Washington, DC, USA, 2005. a
Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Flood risk assessment
and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 295–308,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004, 2004. a
Arneson, L., Zevenbergen, L., Lagasse, P., and Clopper, P.: Evaluating Scour
at Bridges Fifth Edition, Tech. Rep. 18, Federal Highway Administration,
Washington, DC, USA, 2012. a
Berdica, K.: An introduction to road vulnerability: What has been done, is
done and should be done, Transp. Policy, 9, 117–127,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-070X(02)00011-2, 2002. a
Bezzola, G. R. and Hegg, C.: Ereignisanalyse Hochwasser 2005, Teil 1 –
Prozesse, Schäden und erste Einordnung, Umwelt-Wissen 0707.215 S,
Bundesamt für Umwelt BAFU, Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt WSL,
Basel, Switzerland, 2007. a
Bocchini, P. and Frangopol, D. M.: Restoration of Bridge Networks after an
Earthquake: Multicriteria Intervention Optimization, Earthq. Spectra, 28,
426–455, https://doi.org/10.1193/1.4000019, 2012. a
Bowering, E. A., Peck, A. M., and Simonovic, S. P.: A flood risk assessment to
municipal infrastructure due to changing climate part I: methodology, Urban Water J., 11, 20–30, https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2012.758293, 2014. a, b
Brunner, G. W.: HEC-RAS, River Analysis System: Hydraulic Reference Manual,
Technical Report CPD-69, US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering
Center (HEC), Davis, CA, USA, 2016. a
Bureau of Public Roads: Traffic Assignment Manual, Manual, Urban Planning
Division, US Department of Commerce, Washington, DC, USA, 1964. a
Chang, S. E. and Nojima, N.: Measuring post-disaster transportation system
performance: the 1995 Kobe earthquake in comparative perspective,
Transport. Res. A.-Pol., 35, 475–494,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0965-8564(00)00003-3, 2001. a
Clark, C. O.: Storage and the unit hydrograph, T. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 110, 1419–1446, 1945. a
Dawson, R. J., Peppe, R., and Wang, M.: An agent-based model for risk-based
flood incident management, Nat. Hazards, 59, 167–189,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9745-4, 2011. a
De Bruijin, K. M.: Resilience and flood risk management: A sytems approach
applied to lowland rivers, PhD thesis, TU Delft, Delft, the Netherlands,
2005. a
Deckers, P., Kellens, W., Reyns, J., Vanneuville, W., and De Maeyer, P.: A
GIS for Flood Risk Management in Flanders, in: Geospatial Techniques in
Urban Hazard and Disaster Analysis, edited by: Showalter, P. S. and Lu, Y.,
vol. 2 of Geotechnologies and the Environment, 51–69, Springer
Netherlands, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2238-7_4, 2009. a, b
Dueñas-Osorio, L. and Vemuru, S. M.: Cascading failures in complex
infrastructure systems, Struct. Saf., 31, 157–167,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2008.06.007, 2009. a
Eidsvig, U. M. K., Kristensen, K., and Vangelsten, B. V.: Assessing the risk
posed by natural hazards to infrastructures, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.,
17, 481–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-481-2017, 2017. a
Elsawah, H., Guerrero, M., and Moselhi, O.: Decision Support Model for
Integrated Intervention Plans of Municipal Infrastructure, ICSI 2014, 7,
1039–1050, https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784478745.098, 2014. a
Ferlisi, S., Cascini, L., Corominas, J., and Matano, F.: Rockfall risk
assessment to persons travelling in vehicles along a road: the case study of
the Amalfi coastal road (southern Italy), Nat. Hazards, 62, 691–721,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0102-z, 2012. a
Fuchs, S. and Bründl, M.: Damage Potential and Losses Resulting from
Snow Avalanches in Settlements of the Canton of Grisons, Switzerland,
Nat. Hazards, 34, 53–69, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-0784-y, 2005. a
Fuchs, S. and Keiler, M.: Variability of Natural Hazard Risk in the European
Alps: Evidence from Damage Potential Exposed to Snow Avalanches, in:
Disaster Management Handbook, edited by: Pinkowski, J., vol. 138, chap. 13,
267–279, Taylor & Francis Group, Boca Raton, Florida, USA, https://doi.org/10.1201/9781420058635.ch13, 2008. a
Fuchs, S., Keiler, M., Sokratov, S., and Shnyparkov, A.: Spatiotemporal
dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk
management, Nat. Hazards, 68, 1217–1241,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0508-7, 2013. a
Fuchs, S., Röthlisberger, V., Thaler, T., Zischg, A., and Keiler, M.:
Natural Hazard Management from a Coevolutionary Perspective: Exposure and
Policy Response in the European Alps, Ann. Am. Assoc. Geogr., 107, 382–392, https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2016.1235494, 2017. a
Gallina, V., Torresan, S., Critto, A., Sperotto, A., Glade, T., and Marcomini,
A.: A review of multi-risk methodologies for Nat. Hazards: Consequences
and challenges for a climate change impact assessment, J. Environ. Manage., 168, 123–132, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.11.011,
2016. a
Gamma, P.: dfwalk – Ein Murgang Simulationsprogramm zur Gefahrenzonierung,
PhD thesis, University Bern, Bern, Switzerland, 2000. a
Gehl, P. and D'Ayala, D.: Integrated multi-hazard framework for the fragility
analysis of roadway bridges, in: Proceedings of the 12th International
Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
(ICASP12), Vancouver, Canada, 12–15 July, edited by: Haukaas, T., p. 8,
University of British Columbia Library, Vancouver, Canada,
https://doi.org/10.14288/1.0076190, 2015. a
Giamboni, M., Wehrli, A., and Losey, S.: Simulation von gravitativen
Naturgefahren für das Schutzwaldmanagement in der Schweiz: Das Projekt
Silvaprotect-CH, Bulletin fuer Angewandte Geologie, 13, 83–95,
https://doi.org/10.5169/seals-226686, 2008. a
Hackl, J. and Adey, B. T.: Generation of Spatially Embedded Random Networks to
Model Complex Transportation Networks, in: 14th International Probabilistic
Workshop, edited by: Caspeele, R., Taerwe, L., and Proske, D.,
Springer International Publishing, Cham, 217–230, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47886-9_15,
2017. a
Hackl, J., Adey, B. T., Heitzler, M., and Iosifescu-Enescu, I.: An Overarching
Risk Assessment Process to Evaluate the Risks Associated with Infrastructure
Networks due to Nat. Hazards, International Journal of Performability Engineering, 11, 153–168, 2015. a
Hackl, J., Heitzler, M., Lam, J. C., Adey, B. T., and Hurni, L.: Development
of flood and mudflow events for the spatio-temporal risk assessment of
networks, European Water, 57, 197–203, 2017. a
Hammond, M., Chen, A., Djordjević, S., Butler, D., and Mark, O.: Urban
flood impact assessment: A state-of-the-art review, Urban Water J., 12,
14–29, https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2013.857421, 2015. a
He, X. and Liu, H. X.: Modeling the day-to-day traffic evolution process after
an unexpected network disruption, Transport. Res. B.-Meth., 46, 50–71, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2011.07.012, 2012. a
Heitzler, M., Hackl, J., Adey, B. T., Iosifescu-Enescu, I., Lam, J. C., and
Hurni, L.: A method to visualize the evolution of multiple interacting
spatial systems, ISPRS J. Photogramm., 117,
217–226, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2016.03.002, 2016. a
Heitzler, M., Lam, J. C., Hackl, J., Adey, B. T., and Hurni, L.:
GPU-Accelerated Rendering Methods to Visually Analyze Large-Scale Disaster
Simulation Data, Journal of Geovisualization and Spatial Analysis, 1, 1–18,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41651-017-0004-4, 2017. a
Heitzler, M., Lam, J. C., Hackl, J., Adey, B. T., and Hurni, L.: A Simulation
and Visualization Environment for Spatio- Temporal Disaster Risk Assessments
of Network Infrastructures, Cartographica: The International Journal for Geographic Information
and Geovisualization, 52, 349–363, https://doi.org/10.3138/cart.52.4.2017-0009, 2018. a, b
Hilker, N., Badoux, A., and Hegg, C.: The Swiss flood and landslide damage
database 1972–2007, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 913–925,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-913-2009, 2009. a
Jenelius, E., Petersen, T., and Mattsson, L. G.: Importance and exposure in
road network vulnerability analysis, Transport. Res. A.-Pol., 40, 537–560, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2005.11.003, 2006. a, b, c
Keiler, M., Knight, J., and Harrison, S.: Climate change and geomorphological
hazards in the eastern European Alps, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A., 368,
2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0047, 2010. a
Kok, M., Huizinga, H. J., Vrouwenvelder, A., and Barendregt, A.:
Standaardmethode 2004 – Schade en Slachtoffers als gevolg van
overstromingen, Tech. Rep. DWW-2005-005, Ministerie van Verkeer en
Waterstaat, Utrecht, the Netherlands, 2005. a
Koks, E., De, H., and Koome, E.: Comparing Extreme Rainfall and Large-Scale
Flooding Induced Inundation Risk – Evidence from a Dutch Case-Study, in:
Studies on Water Management Issues, edited by: Kumarasamy, M., London, UK, chap. 1, 3–26, InTech, https://doi.org/10.5772/30378,
2012. a
Komendantova, N., Mrzyglocki, R., Mignan, A., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., Patt, A.,
and Fleming, K.: Multi-hazard and multi-risk decision-support tools as a
part of participatory risk governance: Feedback from civil protection
stakeholders, Int. J. Disast. Risk. Re., 8, 50–67,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.12.006, 2014. a, b
Kontou, E., Murray-Tuite, P., and Wernstedt, K.: Duration of commute travel
changes in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy using accelerated failure time
modeling, Transport. Res. A.-Pol., 100,
170–181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.04.015, 2017. a
Kull, D. W. and Feldman, A. D.: Evolution of Clark's Unit Graph Method to
Spatially Distributed Runoff, J. Hydrol. Eng., 3, 9–19,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(1998)3:1(9), 1998. a
Lam, J. C. and Adey, B. T.: Functional Loss Assessment and Restoration
Analysis to Quantify Indirect Consequences of Hazards, ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 2,
04016008, https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000877, 2016. a, b, c
Lam, J. C., Adey, B. T., Heitzler, M., Hackl, J., Gehl, P., van Erp, N.,
D'Ayala, D., van Gelder, P., and Hurni, L.: Stress tests for a road network
using fragility functions and functional capacity loss functions,
Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 173, 78–93,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2018.01.015, 2018a. a
Lam, J. C., Heitzler, M., Hackl, J., Adey, B. T., and Hurni, L.: Modelling the
functional capacity losses of networks exposed to hazards, Sustainable
and Resilient Infrastructure, Taylor & Francis, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1080/23789689.2018.1469357,
2018b. a, b
Li, C., Cheng, X., Li, N., Du, X., Yu, Q., and Kan, G.: A Framework for Flood
Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban
Areas, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He.,
13, 787, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13080787, 2016. a
Losey, S. and Wehrli, A.: Schutzwald in der Schweiz: Vom Projekt
SilvaProtect-CH zum harmonisierten Schutzwald, Final report, Bundesamt
für Umwelt (BAFU), Bern, Switzerland, 2013. a
Mattsson, L.-G. and Jenelius, E.: Vulnerability and resilience of transport
systems – A discussion of recent research, Transport. Res. A.-Pol., 81, 16–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.06.002, 2015. a
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., and Thieken, A.: Review article
“Assessment of economic flood damage”, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10,
1697–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010, 2010. a, b
Mignan, A., Wiemer, S., and Giardini, D.: The quantification of
low-probability-high-consequences events: part I, A generic multi-risk
approach, Nat. Hazards, 73, 1999–2022, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1178-4,
2014. a, b
Paudel, M., Nelson, E. J., and Scharffenberg, W.: Comparison of Lumped and
Quasi-Distributed Clark Runoff Models Using the SCS Curve Number Equation,
J. Hydrol. Eng., 14, 1098–1106,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000100, 2009. a
Pellicani, R., Argentiero, I., and Spilotro, G.: GIS-based predictive models
for regional-scale landslide susceptibility assessment and risk mapping along
road corridors, Geomat. Nat. Haz. Risk., 5705, 1–22,
https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2017.1292411, 2017. a, b
Pregnolato, M., Ford, A., Wilkinson, S. M., and Dawson, R. J.: The impact of
flooding on road transport: A depth-disruption function, Transport. Res. D.-Tr. E., 55, 67–81,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.06.020, 2017. a
Pritchard, O. G., Hallett, S. H., and Farewell, T. S.: Soil geohazard mapping
for improved asset management of UK local roads, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.
Sci., 15, 2079–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2079-2015, 2015. a
Rickenmann, D.: Empirical Relationships for Debris Flows, Nat. Hazards,
19, 47–77, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008064220727, 1999. a
Roslan, N. I., Ghani, A. N. A., and Hamid, A. H. A.: Road subgrade strength
under various flooding event, Jurnal Teknologi, 75, 39–43, 2015. a
Rupi, F., Bernardi, S., Rossi, G., and Danesi, A.: The Evaluation of Road
Network Vulnerability in Mountainous Areas: A Case Study, Networks and Spatial Economics, 15, 397–411, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11067-014-9260-8, 2015. a, b, c
Scawthorn, C., Flores, P., Blais, N., Seligson, H., Tate, E., Chang, S.,
Mifflin, E., Thomas, W., Murphy, J., Jones, C., and Lawrence, M.: HAZUS-MH
Flood Loss Estimation Methodology I: Overview and Flood Hazard
Characterization, Nat. Hazards Review, 7, 72–81,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2006)7:2(72), 2006. a
Schlögl, M. and Laaha, G.: Extreme weather exposure identification for road
networks – a comparative assessment of statistical methods, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 515–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-515-2017,
2017. a
Shabou, S., Ruin, I., Lutoff, C., Debionne, S., Anquetin, S., Creutin, J.-D.,
and Beaufils, X.: MobRISK: a model for assessing the exposure of road users
to flash flood events, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1631–1651,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1631-2017, 2017. a
Sheffi, Y.: Urban transportation networks: equilibrium analysis with
mathematical programming methods, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, USA, 1985. a
Skempton, A. W. and Delory, F. A.: Stability of Natural Slopes in London
Clay, Thomas Telford Publishing, London, UK, 378–381, https://doi.org/10.1680/sposm.02050.0011, 1952. a
Staubli, R. and Hirt, T.: Werterhalt von Strassen, Leitfaden für
Politiker und Praktiker 1, Schweizerischer Gemeindeverband,
Urtenen-Schönbühl, Switzerland, 2005. a
Suarez, P., Anderson, W., Mahal, V., and Lakshmanan, T. R.: Impacts of
flooding and climate change on urban transportation: A systemwide performance
assessment of the Boston Metro Area, Transport. Res. D.-Tr. E., 10, 231–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2005.04.007,
2005. a
Tariq, M., Hoes, O., and Van de Giesen, N.: Development of a risk-based
framework to integrate flood insurance, J. Flood Risk. Manag., 7,
291–307, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12056, 2014. a
Taubenböck, H., Goseberg, N., Lämmel, G., Setiadi, N., Schlurmann,
T., Nagel, K., Siegert, F., Birkmann, J., Traub, K. P., Dech, S., Keuck, V.,
Lehmann, F., Strunz, G., and Klüpfel, H.: Risk reduction at the
”Last-Mile”: An attempt to turn science into action by the example of Padang,
Indonesia, Nat. Hazards, 65, 915–945, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0377-0,
2013. a
Taylor, M. and D'Este, G.: Transport Network Vulnerability: a Method for
Diagnosis of Critical Locations in Transport Infrastructure Systems, in:
Critical Infrastructure, edited by: Murray, A. and Grubesic, T., Advances in Spatial Science, Springer Berlin
Heidelberg, 9–30, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68056-7_2, 2007. a
Thacker, S., Pant, R., and Hall, J. W.: System-of-systems formulation and
disruption analysis for multi-scale critical national infrastructures,
Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 167, 30–41,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.04.023, 2017. a
Vennapusa, P. K. R., White, D. J., and Miller, D. K.: Western Iowa Missouri
River Flooding – Geo-Infrastructure Damage Assessment, Repair and Mitigation
Strategies, Tech. Rep. September, Center for Earthworks Engineering
Research, Ames, IA, USA, 2013. a
Vespignani, A.: Complex networks: The fragility of interdependency, Nature,
464, 984–985, https://doi.org/10.1038/464984a, 2010. a
Vetsch, D., Siviglia, A., Ehrbar, D., Facchini, M., Gerber, M., Kammerer, S.,
Peter, S., Vanzo, D., Vonwiller, L., Volz, C., Farshi, D., Mueller, R.,
Rousselot, P., Veprek, R., and Faeh, R.: System Manuals of BASEMENT, Manual
Version 2.8, Laboratory of Hydraulics, Glaciology and Hydrology (VAW),
Zurich, Switzerland, 2018. a
VSS: Kosten-Nutzen-Analysen im Strassenverkehr: Zeitkosten im
Personenverkehr, Swiss Standard SN 641 822a, Swiss Association of Road and
Transport Experts (VSS), Zurich, Switzerland, 2009a. a
VSS: Kosten-Nutzen-Analysen im Strassenverkehr: Betriebskosten von
Strassenfahrzeugen, Swiss Standard SN 641 827, Swiss Association of Road and
Transport Experts (VSS), Zurich, Switzerland, 2009b. a
Vugrin, E. D., Turnquist, M. A., and Brown, N. J. K.: Optimal recovery
sequencing for enhanced resilience and service restoration in transportation
networks, International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 10, 218–246,
https://doi.org/10.1504/IJCIS.2014.066356, 2014.
a
Walsh, I.: The Effects of Inundation on Pavements, Report 383, Jacobs,
London, UK, 2011. a
Wang, Z., Chan, A. P. C., Yuan, J., Xia, B., Skitmore, M., and Li, Q.: Recent
Advances in Modeling the Vulnerability of Transportation Networks, J. Infrastruct. Syst., 21, 1–9,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000232, 2014. a
Wüest, M., Frei, C., Altenhoff, A., Hagen, M., Litschi, M., and
Schär, C.: A gridded hourly precipitation dataset for Switzerland
using rain-gauge analysis and radar-based disaggregation, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 1764–1775, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2025, 2010. a
Zimmermann, M., Mani, P., and Gamma, P.: Murganggefahr und Klimaänderung
– ein GIS-basierter Ansatz, NFP 31 Schlussbericht, vdf, Hochsch.-Verlag an
der ETH, Zurich, Switzerland, 1997. a
Short summary
This paper introduces a methodology to support network managers in the quantification of the risk related to their networks. The method emphasizes the integration of the spatial and temporal attributes of the events that need to be modeled to estimate the risk. This work then demonstrates the usefulness of the methodology through its application to design and implement a risk assessment to estimate the potential impact of flood and mudflow events on a road network located in Switzerland.
This paper introduces a methodology to support network managers in the quantification of the...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint