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Volume 18, issue 9 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2345-2354, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2345-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 12 Sep 2018

Research article | 12 Sep 2018

Multi-hazard fragility analysis for fluvial dikes in earthquake- and flood-prone areas

Sergey Tyagunov1, Sergiy Vorogushyn2, Cristina Muñoz Jimenez1, Stefano Parolai3,a, and Kevin Fleming1,4 Sergey Tyagunov et al.
  • 1GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtzstrasse 7, 14467 Potsdam, Germany
  • 2GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4: Hydrology, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
  • 3OGS Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale, Borgo Grotta Gigante 42/C, 34010 Sgonico, Italy
  • 4GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 2.6: Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, Helmholtzstrasse 7, 14467 Potsdam, Germany
  • aformerly at: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtzstrasse 7, 14467 Potsdam, Germany

Abstract. The paper presents a methodology for the multi-hazard fragility analysis of fluvial earthen dikes in earthquake- and flood-prone areas due to liquefaction. The methodology has been applied for the area along the Rhine River reach and adjacent floodplains between the gauges at Andernach and Düsseldorf. Along this domain, the urban areas are partly protected by dikes, which may be prone to failure during exceptional floods and/or earthquakes. The fragility of the earthen dikes is analysed in terms of liquefaction potential, characterized by the factor of safety estimated using the procedure of Seed and Idriss (1971). Uncertainties in the geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters are considered in a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Failure probability of the earthen structures is presented in the form of a fragility surface as a function of both seismic hazard and hydrologic/hydraulic load.

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A methodological framework for the multi-hazard (earthquake and flood) failure analysis of fluvial dikes due to liquefaction is presented. Failure probability of the earthen structures is presented in the form of a fragility surface as a function of both seismic and hydraulic load. It is emphasized that the potential interactions between the two hazards should not be ignored in risk analyses and decision-making.
A methodological framework for the multi-hazard (earthquake and flood) failure analysis of...
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