Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3363-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3363-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Multi-hazard risks in New York City
Yaella Depietri
Urban Systems Lab, The New School, New York, NY, USA
Faculty of Architecture and Town Planning, Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel
Khila Dahal
Urban Systems Lab, The New School, New York, NY, USA
Department of Geography and Urban Studies, Temple University,
Philadelphia, USA
Timon McPhearson
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Urban Systems Lab, The New School, New York, NY, USA
Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, New York, USA
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Quantifying the potential benefits of risk-mitigation strategies on future flood losses in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Review article: Potential of nature-based solutions to mitigate hydro-meteorological risks in sub-Saharan Africa
Invited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modelling
Classifying marine faults for hazard assessment offshore Israel: a new approach based on fault size and vertical displacement
Assessing agriculture's vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regions
Tsunami risk perception in central and southern Italy
Brief communication: Critical infrastructure impacts of the 2021 mid-July western European flood event
Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models
Building-scale flood loss estimation through vulnerability pattern characterization: application to an urban flood in Milan, Italy
Process-based flood damage modelling relying on expert knowledge: a methodological contribution applied to the agricultural sector
Dynamic risk assessment of compound hazards based on VFS–IEM–IDM: a case study of typhoon–rainstorm hazards in Shenzhen, China
Integrated seismic risk assessment in Nepal
Machine learning models to predict myocardial infarctions from past climatic and environmental conditions
Reliability of flood marks and practical relevance for flood hazard assessment in southwestern Germany
Invited perspectives: Managed realignment as a solution to mitigate coastal flood risks – optimizing success through knowledge co-production
Invited perspectives: Views of 350 natural hazard community members on key challenges in natural hazards research and the Sustainable Development Goals
Estimating return intervals for extreme climate conditions related to winter disasters and livestock mortality in Mongolia
Surveying the surveyors to address risk perception and adaptive-behaviour cross-study comparability
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma’s population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Comparison of sustainable flood risk management by four countries – the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the United States, and Japan – and the implications for Asian coastal megacities
Projected impact of heat on mortality and labour productivity under climate change in Switzerland
Full-scale experiments to examine the role of deadwood in rockfall dynamics in forests
Predicting drought and subsidence risks in France
Review article: Design and Evaluation of Weather Index Insurance for Multi-Hazard Resilience and Food Insecurity
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
The determinants affecting the intention of urban residents to prepare for flood risk in China
Strategic framework for natural disaster risk mitigation using deep learning and cost-benefit analysis
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Invited perspectives: Challenges and step changes for natural hazard – perspectives from the German Committee for Disaster Reduction (DKKV)
Invited perspectives: When research meets practice: challenges, opportunities, and suggestions from the implementation of the Floods Directive in the largest Italian river basin
Rapid landslide risk zoning toward multi-slope units of the Neikuihui tribe for preliminary disaster management
INSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps
Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment
Design and Testing of a Multi-Hazard Risk Rapid Assessment Questionnaire for Hill Communities in the Indian Himalayan Region
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels: An application to damage data of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami
Education, financial aid, and awareness can reduce smallholder farmers' vulnerability to drought under climate change
Regional county-level housing inventory predictions and the effects on hurricane risk
Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Invited Perspectives: “Small country, big challenges – Switzerland's hazard prevention research”
Invited perspectives: Challenges and future directions in improving bridge flood resilience
Bangladesh's vulnerability to cyclonic coastal flooding
A geography of drought indices: mismatch between indicators of drought and its impacts on water and food securities
Cost–benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea
About the return period of a catastrophe
Brief communication: Radar images for monitoring informal urban settlements in vulnerable zones in Lima, Peru
A simulation–optimization framework for post-disaster allocation of mental health resources
Lessons learned about the importance of raising risk awareness in the Mediterranean region (north Morocco and west Sardinia, Italy)
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
Pauline Brémond, Anne-Laurence Agenais, Frédéric Grelot, and Claire Richert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3385–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is impossible to protect all issues against flood risk. To prioritise protection, economic analyses are conducted. The French Ministry of the Environment wanted to make available damage functions that we have developed for several sectors. For this, we propose a methodological framework and apply it to the model we have developed to assess damage to agriculture. This improves the description, validation, transferability and updatability of models based on expert knowledge.
Wenwu Gong, Jie Jiang, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3271–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a model named variable fuzzy set and information diffusion (VFS–IEM–IDM) to assess the dynamic risk of compound hazards, which takes into account the interrelations between the hazard drivers, deals with the problem of data sparsity, and considers the temporal dynamics of the occurrences of the compound hazards. To examine the efficacy of the proposed VFS–IEM–IDM model, a case study of typhoon–rainstorm risks in Shenzhen, China, is presented.
Sanish Bhochhibhoya and Roisha Maharjan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3211–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This is a comprehensive approach to risk assessment that considers the dynamic relationship between loss and damage. The study combines physical risk with social science to mitigate the disaster caused by earthquakes in Nepal, taking socioeconomical parameters into account such that the risk estimates can be monitored over time. The main objective is to recognize the cause of and solutions to seismic hazard, building the interrelationship between individual, natural, and built-in environments.
Lennart Marien, Mahyar Valizadeh, Wolfgang zu Castell, Christine Nam, Diana Rechid, Alexandra Schneider, Christine Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen, Kathrin Wolf, and Laurens M. Bouwer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3015–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Myocardial infarctions (MIs; heart attacks) are influenced by temperature extremes, air pollution, lack of green spaces and ageing population. Here, we apply machine learning (ML) models in order to estimate the influence of various environmental and demographic risk factors. The resulting ML models can accurately reproduce observed annual variability in MI and inter-annual trends. The models allow quantification of the importance of individual factors and can be used to project future risk.
Annette Sophie Bösmeier, Iso Himmelsbach, and Stefan Seeger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2963–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we collected a large number of marks along the Kinzig, southwestern Germany, and tested them for plausibility and temporal continuance. Despite uncertainty, the marks appeared to be an overall consistent and practical source that may also increase flood risk awareness. A wide agreement between the current flood hazard maps and the collected flood marks moreover indicated a robust local hazard assessment.
Mark Schuerch, Hannah L. Mossman, Harriet E. Moore, Elizabeth Christie, and Joshua Kiesel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2879–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal nature-based solutions to adapt to sea-level rise, such as managed realignments (MRs), are becoming increasingly popular amongst scientists and coastal managers. However, local communities often oppose these projects, partly because scientific evidence for their efficiency is limited. Here, we propose a framework to work with stakeholders and communities to define success variables of MR projects and co-produce novel knowledge on the projects’ efficiency to mitigate coastal flood risks.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Masahiko Haraguchi, Nicole Davi, Mukund Palat Rao, Caroline Leland, Masataka Watanabe, and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2751–2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mass livestock mortality during severe winters (dzud in Mongolian) is a compound event. Summer droughts are a precondition for dzud. We estimate the return levels of relevant variables: summer drought conditions and minimum winter temperature. The result shows that the return levels of drought conditions vary over time. Winter severity, however, is constant. We link climatic factors to socioeconomic impacts and draw attention to the need for index insurance.
Samuel Rufat, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Alexander Fekete, Emeline Comby, Peter J. Robinson, Iuliana Armaş, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2655–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever-richer information available. To improve the ability of researchers to build cumulative knowledge, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the accumulation of evidence. We offer several recommendations for future studies.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-217, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting, and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the global south.
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Liang Emlyn Yang, Gordon Mitchell, Nigel Wright, Mingfu Guan, Xiaohui Lu, Zilin Wang, Burrell Montz, and Olalekan Adekola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2567–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) has become popular since the 1980s. This study examines the past and present flood management experiences in four developed countries (UK, the Netherlands, USA, and Japan) that have frequently suffered floods. We analysed ways towards SFRM among Asian coastal cities, which are still reliant on a hard-engineering approach that is insufficient to reduce future flood risk. We recommend stakeholders adopt mixed options to undertake SFRM practices.
Zélie Stalhandske, Valentina Nesa, Marius Zumwald, Martina S. Ragettli, Alina Galimshina, Niels Holthausen, Martin Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2531–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We model the impacts of heat on both mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland in a changing climate. We estimate 658 heat-related death currently per year in Switzerland and CHF 665 million in losses in labour productivity. Should we remain on a high-emissions pathway, these values may double or even triple by the end of the century. Under a lower-emissions scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak by around mid-century.
Adrian Ringenbach, Elia Stihl, Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Guang Lu, Andreas Stoffel, Martin Kistler, Sandro Degonda, Kevin Simmler, Daniel Mader, and Andrin Caviezel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2433–2443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forests have a recognized braking effect on rockfalls. The impact of lying deadwood, however, is mainly neglected. We conducted 1 : 1-scale rockfall experiments in three different states of a spruce forest to fill this knowledge gap: the original forest, the forest including lying deadwood and the cleared area. The deposition points clearly show that deadwood has a protective effect. We reproduced those experimental results numerically, considering three-dimensional cones to be deadwood.
Arthur Charpentier, Molly James, and Hani Ali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting consequences of drought episodes is complex, all the more when focusing on subsidence. We use 20 years of insurer data to derive a model to predict both the intensity and the severity of such events, using geophysical and climatic information located in space and time.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabrício Alonso Richmond Navarro, Roberto Fray Silva, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-498, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lately we have been exposed to news demonstrating the vulnerability of our society to a variety of natural disasters and they usually are not isolated. To improve the financial stability, we need to provide insurance contracts that allow coverage for multiple sources of threats, such as droughts, extreme temperatures and floods. We conducted a review of the literature for answering very simple questions regarding weather index insurance design and how to cope with multiple hazard risks.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Tiantian Wang, Yunmeng Lu, Tiezhong Liu, Yujiang Zhang, Xiaohan Yan, and Yi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2185–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the main determinants influencing urban residents' intention to prepare for flood risk in China, we developed an integrated theoretical framework based on protection motivation theory (PMT) and validated it with structural equation modeling. The results showed that both threat perception and coping appraisal were effective in increasing residents' intention to prepare. In addition, individual heterogeneity and social context also had an impact on preparedness intentions.
Ji-Myong Kim, Sang-Guk Yum, Hyunsoung Park, and Junseo Bae
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2131–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Insurance data has been utilized with deep learning techniques to predict natural disaster damage losses in South Korea.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Benni Thiebes, Ronja Winkhardt-Enz, Reimund Schwarze, and Stefan Pickl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1969–1972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The worldwide challenge of the present as well as the future is to navigate the global community to a sustainable and secure future. Humanity is increasingly facing multiple risks under more challenging conditions. The continuation of climate change and the ever more frequent occurrence of extreme, multi-hazard, and cascading events are interacting with increasingly complex and interconnected societies.
Tommaso Simonelli, Laura Zoppi, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper discusses challenges (and solutions) emerged during a collaboration among practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists in the definition of flood damage maps in the Po River District. Social aspects were proven to be fundamental components of the risk assessment; variety of competences in the working group was key in finding solutions and revealing weaknesses of intermediate proposals. This paper finally highlights the need of duplicating such an experience at a broader European level.
Chih-Chung Chung and Zih-Yi Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Neikuihui tribe in northern Taiwan faces landslides during rainfall events. Since the government needs to respond with disaster management for the most at-risk tribes, this study develops rapid risk zoning, which involves the susceptibility, activity, exposure, and vulnerability of each slope unit of the area. Results reveal that one of the slope units of the Neikuihui tribal area has a higher risk and did suffer a landslide during the typhoon in 2016.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-171, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourages the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-244, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in Western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP) questioning their warning system. An online survey revealed that 35 % of the respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving the warning system in Germany.
Max Schneider, Michelle McDowell, Peter Guttorp, E. Ashley Steel, and Nadine Fleischhut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-91, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazard. To minimize loss, proper planning and execution in the right direction is necessary. Data collection is base for any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand, pictorial and identify high-risk components of any building (structural & non-structural) and campus from multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilize the budget in a prioritized way. This study is gone through SWOT of the existing risk assessment form.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-206, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation, and fragility model selection.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Caroline J. Williams, Rachel A. Davidson, Linda K. Nozick, Joseph E. Trainor, Meghan Millea, and Jamie L. Kruse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1055–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A neural network model based on publicly available data was developed to forecast the number of housing units for each of 1000 counties in the southeastern United States in each of the next 20 years. The estimated number of housing units is almost always (97 % of the time) less than 1 percentage point different than the observed number, which are predictive errors acceptable for most practical purposes. The housing unit projections can help quantify changes in future expected hurricane impacts.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Dorothea Wabbels and Gian Reto Bezzola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 927–930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to its geography and climate, densely populated Switzerland is often affected by water-related hazards such as surface runoff, floods, debris flows, landslides, rockfalls and avalanches. Almost every part of Switzerland is exposed to natural hazards, and anyone can be affected.
Enrico Tubaldi, Christopher J. White, Edoardo Patelli, Stergios Aristoteles Mitoulis, Gustavo de Almeida, Jim Brown, Michael Cranston, Martin Hardman, Eftychia Koursari, Rob Lamb, Hazel McDonald, Richard Mathews, Richard Newell, Alonso Pizarro, Marta Roca, and Daniele Zonta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 795–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Bridges are critical infrastructure components of transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and are therefore exposed to the potentially devastating impact of floods. This paper discusses a series of issues and areas where improvements in research and practice are required in the context of risk assessment and management of bridges exposed to flood hazard, with the ultimate goal of guiding future efforts in improving bridge flood resilience.
Aurélia Bernard, Nathalie Long, Mélanie Becker, Jamal Khan, and Sylvie Fanchette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 729–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article reviews current scientific literature in order to define vulnerability in the context of coastal Bangladesh facing cyclonic flooding. A new metric, called the socio-spatial vulnerability index, is defined as a function of both the probability of the cyclonic flood hazard and the sensitivity of delta inhabitants. The main result shows that three very densely populated districts, located in the Ganges delta tidal floodplain, are highly vulnerable to cyclonic flooding.
Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 323–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of our study was to question the validity of the assumed direct linkage between drivers of drought and its impacts on water and food securities, mainly found in the frameworks of drought early warning systems (DEWSs). We analysed more than 5000 scientific studies leading us to the conclusion that the local context can contribute to drought drivers resulting in these drought impacts. Our research aims to increase the relevance and utility of the information provided by DEWSs.
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the North Adriatic Italian coast, considering sea level rise up to the year 2100, and perform a cost–benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. The study uses nearshore hydrodynamic modelling. Our findings represent a useful indication for disaster risk management, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return on investments.
Mathias Raschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-245-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop the combined return period to stochastically measure hazard and catastrophe events. This is used to estimate a risk curve by stochastic scaling of historical events and averaging corresponding risk parameters in combination with a vulnerability model. We apply the method to extratropical cyclones over Germany and estimate the risk for insured losses. The results are strongly influenced by assumptions about spatial dependence.
Luis Moya, Fernando Garcia, Carlos Gonzales, Miguel Diaz, Carlos Zavala, Miguel Estrada, Fumio Yamazaki, Shunichi Koshimura, Erick Mas, and Bruno Adriano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 65–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-65-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-65-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Informal occupation of unused lands for settlements is a critical issue in Peru. In most cases, such areas are unsafe against natural hazards. We performed a time-series analysis of Sentinel-1 images at recent informal settlements in Lima. The result suggests that a low-cost and sustainable monitoring system of informal settlements can be implemented.
Stephen Cunningham, Steven Schuldt, Christopher Chini, and Justin Delorit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3843–3862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The severity of disaster-induced mental health illness outcomes varies based on factors such as socioeconomic standing, age, and degree of exposure. This research proposes a resource allocation framework allowing decision-makers the capability to assess the capacity and scalability of early, intermediate, and long-term mental health treatment and recovery. Ultimately, this framework can inform policy and operational decisions based on community needs and constrained resources post-disaster.
Ante Ivčević, Hubert Mazurek, Lionel Siame, Raquel Bertoldo, Vania Statzu, Kamal Agharroud, Isabel Estrela Rego, Nibedita Mukherjee, and Olivier Bellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3749–3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3749-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The results from two Mediterranean case studies, in north Morocco and west Sardinia, confirm the importance of interdisciplinarity and risk awareness sessions for risk management. The policy literature and interviews held with the administration, associations and scientists indicate that although recognised, the importance of risk awareness sessions is not necessarily put into practice. As a consequence, this could lead to a failure of risk management policy.
Cited articles
311 NYC: 311 calls, available at:
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/City-Government/311-Call-Center-Inquiry/tdd6-3ysr,
last access:
19 December 2018.
Abramson, D. M. and Redlener, I.: Hurricane Sandy: lessons learned, again,
Disaster Med. Public Health Prep., 6, 328–329, 2012.
Aerts, J. C. J. H. and Botzen, W. J. W.: Managing exposure to flooding in New
York City, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 377, doi:10.1038/nclimate1487, 2012.
Aerts, J. C. J. H., Lin, N., Botzen, W., Emanuel, K., and de Moel, H.:
Low-Probability Flood Risk Modeling for New York City: Low-Probability Flood
Risk Modeling for New York City, Risk Anal., 33, 772–788,
doi:10.1111/risa.12008, 2013.
Agel, L., Barlow, M., Qian, J.-H., Colby, F., Douglas, E., and Eichler, T.:
Climatology of Daily Precipitation and Extreme Precipitation Events in the
Northeast United States, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 2537–2557,
doi:10.1175/JHM-D-14-0147.1, 2015.
Anderson, B. and Bell, M.: Heat Waves and Mortality in New York, NY,
Epidemiology, 22, S20, doi:10.1097/01.ede.0000391719.31370.34, 2011.
Anderson, G. B. and Bell, M. L.: Lights out: Impact of the August 2003 power
outage on mortality in New York, NY, Epidemiol. Camb. Mass, 23, 189–193,
doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e318245c61c, 2012.
Aydi, A., Zairi, M., and Dhia, H. B.: Minimization of environmental risk of
landfill site using fuzzy logic, analytical hierarchy process, and weighted
linear combination methodology in a geographic information system
environment, Environ. Earth Sci., 68, 1375–1389,
doi:10.1007/s12665-012-1836-3, 2013.
Bankoff, G., Frerks, G., and Hilhorst, T. (Eds.): Mapping vulnerability:
disasters, development, and people, Earthscan Publications, London,
Sterling, VA, 2004.
Bernal, G. A., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Zuloaga, D., Tristancho, J.,
González, D., and Cardona, O.-D.: Integration of Probabilistic and
Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Within Urban Development Planning and Emergency
Preparedness and Response: Application to Manizales, Colombia, Int. J.
Disaster Risk Sci., 8, 270–283, doi:10.1007/s13753-017-0135-8, 2017.
Birkmann, J., Ed.: Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards
disaster resilient societies, United Nations University, Tokyo, New York,
2006.
Birkmann, J., Cardona, O. D., Carreño, M. L., Barbat, A. H., Pelling, M.,
Schneiderbauer, S., Kienberger, S., Keiler, M., Alexander, D., Zeil, P., and
Welle, T.: Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE
framework, Nat. Hazards, 67, 193–211, doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0558-5,
2013.
Blake, E. S., Lansea, C. W., and Gibney, E. J.: The deadliest, costliest, and
most intense United States Tropical Cyclones from 1851 to 2100 (and other
frequently requested Hurricane facts), National Weather Service, National
Hurricane Center, Florida, 2011.
Blake, E. S., Kimberlain, T. B., Berg, R. J., Cangialosi, J. P., and Beven,
J. L.: Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Sandy 22–29 October 2012, National
Hurricane Center, Florida, 2013.
Bogardi, J. J. and Birkmann, J.: Vulnerability assessment: the first step
towards sustainable risk reduction, in: Disasters and society – from hazard
assessment to risk reduction, edited by: Malzahn, D. and Plapp, T., 75–82,
Logos Verlag, Berlin, 2004.
Cardona, O. D.: The Need for Rethinking the Concepts of Vulnerability and
Risk from a Holistic Perspective: A Necessary Review and Criticism for
Effective Risk Management, in: Mapping vulnerability: disasters, development,
and people, edited by: Bankoff, G., Frerks, G., and Hilhorst, T., Earthscan
Publications, London, Sterling, VA, 2004.
Catalano, A. J. and Broccoli, A. J.: Synoptic Characteristics of
Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones along the Northeast Coast of the
United States, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 57, 171–184,
doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0123.1, 2017.
CDCP: Heat Illness and Death – New York City, 2000–2011, U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2013.
Clarke, J. F.: Some effects of the urban structure on heat mortality,
Environ. Res., 5, 93–104, doi:10.1016/0013-9351(72)90023-0, 1972.
Colle, B. A., Buonaiuto, F., Bowman, M. J., Wilson, R. E., Flood, R., Hunter,
R., Mintz, A., and Hill, D.: New York City's Vulnerability to Coastal
Flooding: Storm Surge Modeling of Past Cyclones, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
89, 829–841, doi:10.1175/2007BAMS2401.1, 2008.
Collins, T. W.: Marginalization, Facilitation, and the Production of Unequal
Risk: The 2006 Paso del Norte Floods, Antipode, 42, 258–288,
doi:10.1111/j.1467-8330.2009.00755.x, 2010.
Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH): NYCCAS Air Pollution Rasters
(2008–2015), available at:
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Environment/NYCCAS-Air-Pollution-Rasters/q68s-8qxv
(last access: 20 December 2018), 2017.
Depietri, Y. and McPhearson, T.: Changing urban risk: 140 years of climatic
hazards in New York City, Clim. Change, 148, 1–14,
doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2194-2, 2018.
Depietri, Y., Renaud, F. G., and Kallis, G.: Heat waves and floods in urban
areas: a policy-oriented review of ecosystem services, Sustain. Sci., 7,
95–107, doi:10.1007/s11625-011-0142-4, 2011.
Dickson, E., Baker, J. L., Hoornweg, D., and Asmita, T.: Urban Risk
Assessments: An Approach for Understanding Disaster and Climate Risk in
Cities, The World Bank, available at:
http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-0-8213-8962-1 (last access: 11 June 2015), 2012.
D'Ippoliti, D., Michelozzi, P., Marino, C., de'Donato, F., Menne, B.,
Katsouyanni, K., Kirchmayer, U., Analitis, A., Medina-Ramón, M., Paldy,
A., Atkinson, R., Kovats, S., Bisanti, L., Schneider, A., Lefranc, A.,
Iñiguez, C., and Perucci, C. A.: The impact of heat waves on mortality in
9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project, Environ. Health, 9, 37,
doi:10.1186/1476-069X-9-37, 2010.
Ellis, F. P., Nelson, F., and Pincus, L.: Mortality during heat waves in New
York City July, 1972 and August and September, 1973, Environ. Res., 10,
1–13, doi:10.1016/0013-9351(75)90069-9, 1975.
Forzieri, G., Feyen, L., Russo, S., Vousdoukas, M., Alfieri, L., Outten, S.,
Migliavacca, M., Bianchi, A., Rojas, R., and Cid, A.: Multi-hazard assessment
in Europe under climate change, Clim. Change, 137, 105–119,
doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1661-x, 2016.
Frei, A., Kunkel, K. E., and Matonse, A.: The Seasonal Nature of Extreme
Hydrological Events in the Northeastern United States, J. Hydrometeorol.,
16, 2065–2085, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-14-0237.1, 2015.
Garner, A. J., Mann, M. E., Emanuel, K. A., Kopp, R. E., Lin, N., Alley, R.
B., Horton, B. P., DeConto, R. M., Donnelly, J. P., and Pollard, D.: Impact
of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood
heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114,
201703568, doi:10.1073/pnas.1703568114, 2017.
Gedzelman, S. D., Austin, S., Cermak, R., Stefano, N., Partridge, S.,
Quesenberry, S., and Robinson, D. A.: Mesoscale aspects of the Urban Heat
Island around New York City, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 75, 29–42,
doi:10.1007/s00704-002-0724-2, 2003.
Goldman, L., Finkelstein, R., Schafer, P., and Pugh, T.: Resilient
Communities: Empowering Older Adults in Disasters and Daily Life, The New
York Accademy of Medicine, 2014.
Gornitz, V., Couch, S., and Hartig, E. K.: Impacts of sea level rise in the
New York City metropolitan area, Global Planet. Change, 32, 61–88,
doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(01)00150-3, 2001.
Graham, S.: Disrupted cities: When infrastructure fails, Routledge, New York,
2010.
Greiving, S.: Multi-risk assessment of Europe's regions, in: Measuring
vulnerability to natural hazards: Towards disaster resilient societies,
edited by: Birkmann, J., 210–226, 2006.
Greiving, S., Fleischhauer, M., and Lückenkötter, J.: A Methodology
for an integrated risk assessment of spatially relevant hazards, J. Environ.
Plan. Manag., 49, 1–19, doi:10.1080/09640560500372800, 2006.
Horton, R., Bader, D., Kushnir, Y., Little, C., Blake, R., and Rosenzweig, C.:
New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report, Chapter 1: Climate
Observations and Projections: NPCC 2015 Report Chapter 1, Ann. NY Acad.
Sci., 1336, 18–35, doi:10.1111/nyas.12586, 2015a.
Horton, R., Little, C., Gornitz, V., Bader, D., and Oppenheimer, M.: New York
City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report, Chapter 2: Sea Level Rise and
Coastal Storms: NPCC 2015 Report Chapter 2, Ann. NY Acad. Sci., 1336,
36–44, doi:10.1111/nyas.12593, 2015b.
Huang, G., Zhou, W., and Cadenasso, M. L.: Is everyone hot in the city?
Spatial pattern of land surface temperatures, land cover and neighborhood
socioeconomic characteristics in Baltimore, MD, J. Environ. Manage., 92,
1753–1759, doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.02.006, 2011.
Huang, H., Winter, J. M., Osterberg, E. C., Horton, R. M., and Beckage, B.:
Total and Extreme Precipitation Changes over the Northeastern United States,
J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 1783–1798, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-16-0195.1, 2017.
Huang, H., Winter, J. M., and Osterberg, E. C.: Mechanisms of Abrupt Extreme
Precipitation Change Over the Northeastern United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 7179–7192, doi:10.1029/2017JD028136, 2018.
Janke, J. R.: Multicriteria GIS modeling of wind and solar farms in Colorado,
Renew. Energy, 35, 2228–2234, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2010.03.014, 2010.
Johnson, K., Depietri, Y., and Breil, M.: Multi-hazard risk assessment of two
Hong Kong districts, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 19, 311–323,
doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.08.023, 2016.
Kappes, M. S., Papathoma-Köhle, M., and Keiler, M.: Assessing physical
vulnerability for multi-hazards using an indicator-based methodology, Appl.
Geogr., 32, 577–590, doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.07.002, 2012a.
Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., von Elverfeldt, K., and Glade, T.: Challenges of
analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review, Nat. Hazards, 64, 1925–1958,
doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0294-2, 2012b.
Kemp, A. C. and Horton, B. P.: Contribution of relative sea-level rise to
historical hurricane flooding in New York City, J. Quat. Sci., 28,
537–541, doi:10.1002/jqs.2653, 2013.
Kinney, P. L., Matte, T., Knowlton, K., Madrigano, J., Petkova, E.,
Weinberger, K., Quinn, A., Arend, M., and Pullen, J.: New York City Panel on
Climate Change 2015 Report Chapter 5: Public Health Impacts and Resiliency:
NPCC 2015 Report Chapter 5, Ann. NY Acad. Sci., 1336, 67–88,
doi:10.1111/nyas.12588, 2015.
Klein Rosenthal, J., Kinney, P. L., and Metzger, K. B.: Intra-urban
vulnerability to heat-related mortality in New York City, 1997–2006, Health
Place, 30, 45–60, doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2014.07.014, 2014.
Knighton, J., Steinschneider, S., and Walter, M. T.: A Vulnerability-Based,
Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified
Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model, Water
Resour. Res., 53, 10043–10064, doi:10.1002/2017WR021036, 2017.
Knowlton, K., Lynn, B., Goldberg, R. A., Rosenzweig, C., Klein Rosenthal, J.,
and Kinney, P. L.: Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing
climate in the New York City region, Am. J. Public Health, 97, 2028–2034,
2007.
Knutson, T. R., Sirutis, J. J., Zhao, M., Tuleya, R. E., Bender, M., Vecchi,
G. A., Villarini, G., and Chavas, D.: Global Projections of Intense Tropical
Cyclone Activity for the Late Twenty-First Century from Dynamical Downscaling
of CMIP5/RCP4.5 Scenarios, J. Clim., 28, 7203–7224,
doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0129.1, 2015.
Kopp, R. E., Horton, R. M., Little, C. M., Mitrovica, J. X., Oppenheimer, M.,
Rasmussen, D. J., Strauss, B. H., and Tebaldi, C.: Probabilistic 21st and 22nd
century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites, Earths
Future, 2, 383–406, doi:10.1002/2014EF000239, 2014.
Lane, K., Charles-Guzman, K., Wheeler, K., Abid, Z., Graber, N., and Matte,
T.: Health Effects of Coastal Storms and Flooding in Urban Areas: A Review
and Vulnerability Assessment, J. Environ. Public Health, 2013, 913064,
doi:10.1155/2013/913064, 2013.
Lin, N., Emanuel, K. A., Smith, J. A., and Vanmarcke, E.: Risk assessment of
hurricane storm surge for New York City, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D18121,
doi:10.1029/2009JD013630, 2010.
Lin, N., Emanuel, K., Oppenheimer, M., and Vanmarcke, E.: Physically based
assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change,
2, 462–467, doi:10.1038/nclimate1389, 2012.
Lin, N., Kopp, R. E., Horton, B. P., and Donnelly, J. P.: Hurricane Sandy's
flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
113, 12071–12075, doi:10.1073/pnas.1604386113, 2016.
Liu, Z., Nadim, F., Garcia-Aristizabal, A., Mignan, A., Fleming, K., and Luna,
B. Q.: A three-level framework for multi-risk assessment, Georisk Assess.
Manag. Risk Eng. Syst. Geohazards, 9, 59–74,
doi:10.1080/17499518.2015.1041989, 2015.
Llyod, E. and Licata, A.: One New York City: One Water, Sustainable water
managemnet for New York City's people and environment., n.d.
Lozoya, J. P., Sardá, R., and Jiménez, J. A.: A methodological
framework for multi-hazard risk assessment in beaches, Environ. Sci. Policy,
14, 685–696, doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.002, 2011.
Luber, G. and McGeehin, M.: Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events, Am. J.
Prev. Med., 35, 429–435, doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.021, 2008.
MA: Ecosystems and human well-being: current state and trends: findings of
the Condition and Trends Working Group of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment, Island Press, Washington, DC, 2005.
Madrigano, J., Ito, K., Johnson, S., Kinney, P. L., and Matte, T.: A
Case-Only Study of Vulnerability to Heat Wave–Related Mortality in New York
City (2000–2011), Environ. Health Perspect., 123, 672–678,
doi:10.1289/ehp.1408178, 2015.
Mennis, J. and Hultgren, T.: Intelligent Dasymetric Mapping and Its
Application to Areal Interpolation, Cartogr. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 33,
179–194, doi:10.1559/152304006779077309, 2006.
Michael, E. A. and Samanta, S.: Landslide vulnerability mapping (LVM) using
weighted linear combination (WLC) model through remote sensing and GIS
techniques, Model. Earth Syst. Environ., 2, 88,
doi:10.1007/s40808-016-0141-7, 2016.
Nicholls, R. J. and Small, C.: Improved estimates of coastal population and
exposure to hazards released, Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 83, 301,
doi:10.1029/2002EO000216, 2002.
NYC: Deaths Associated with Heat Waves in 2006, Special Report, New York City
Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, 2006.
NYC: NYC green infrastructure plan: A sustainable strategy for clean
waterways, City of New York, New York, USA, 2010.
NYC: A stronger more resilient New York, The City of New York, 2013.
NYC: Heat-related Deaths in New York City, 2013, New York City Department of
Health and Mental Hygiene, 2014.
OEM: Worst-case storm surge inundation areas, available at:
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Public-Safety/Hurricane-Inundation-Zones-Worst-Case/h3ke-x25q,
last access: 19 December 2018.
Oliver-Smith, A.: Theorizing vulnerability in a globalized world: a political
ecological perspective, in: Mapping vulnerability: disasters, development and
people, edited by: Bankoff, G., Frerks, G., and Hilhorst, D., 10–24,
Earthscan, London, 2004.
Orton, P., Georgas, N., Blumberg, A., and Pullen, J.: Detailed modeling of
recent severe storm tides in estuaries of the New York City region, J.
Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117, C09030, doi:10.1029/2012JC008220, 2012.
Oudin Åström, D., Bertil, F., and Joacim, R.: Heat wave impact on
morbidity and mortality in the elderly population: A review of recent
studies, Maturitas, 69, 99–105, doi:10.1016/j.maturitas.2011.03.008,
2011.
Pelling, M.: The Vulnerability of Cities: Natural Disasters and Social
Resilience, Earthscan, London, 2003.
Pelling, M. and Blackburn, S. (Eds.): Megacities and the coast: risk,
resilience, and transformation, Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group, London,
New York, 2013.
Petkova, E. P., Gasparrini, A., and Kinney, P. L.: Heat and Mortality in New
York City Since the Beginning of the 20th Century, Epidemiology, 25,
554–560, doi:10.1097/EDE.0000000000000123, 2014.
Philippi, C.: Megacities Pushing the Boundaries of our Industry, Risk trends
and insurance challenges, Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, Munich,
2016.
Reed, A. J., Mann, M. E., Emanuel, K. A., Lin, N., Horton, B. P., Kemp, A.
C., and Donnelly, J. P.: Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal
flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era, P. Natl. Acad. Sci.
USA, 112, 12610–12615, doi:10.1073/pnas.1513127112, 2015.
Rosenzweig, C. and Solecki, W.: New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015
Report Introduction: NPCC 2015 Report Introduction, Ann. NY Acad. Sci.,
1336, 3–5, doi:10.1111/nyas.12625, 2015.
Rosenzweig, C., Gaffin, S., and Parshall, L. (Eds.): Green Roofs in the New
York Metropolitan Region, Research Report, Columbia University Centre for
Climate Systems Reserach and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New
York, 2006.
Rosenzweig, C., Solecki, W. D., Blake, R., Bowman, M., Faris, C., Gornitz,
V., Horton, R., Jacob, K., LeBlanc, A., Leichenko, R., Linkin, M., Major, D.,
O'Grady, M., Patrick, L., Sussman, E., Yohe, G., and Zimmerman, R.: Developing
coastal adaptation to climate change in the New York City
infrastructure-shed: process, approach, tools, and strategies, Clim. Change,
106, 93–127, doi:10.1007/s10584-010-0002-8, 2011.
Saisana, M. and Tarantola, S.: State-of-the-art report on current
methodologies and practices for composite indicator development, Citeseer,
Ispra, 2002.
Schoof, J. T. and Robeson, S. M.: Projecting changes in regional temperature
and precipitation extremes in the United States, Weather Clim. Extrem., 11,
28–40, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.09.004, 2016.
Schuman, S. H.: Patterns of urban heat-wave deaths and implications for
prevention: Data from New York and St. Louis during July, 1966, Environ.
Res., 5, 59–75, doi:10.1016/0013-9351(72)90020-5, 1972.
Smith, J. A., Villarini, G., and Baeck, M. L.: Mixture Distributions and the
Hydroclimatology of Extreme Rainfall and Flooding in the Eastern United
States, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 294–309, doi:10.1175/2010JHM1242.1, 2010.
Smith, M. J., Goodchild, M. F., and Longley, P. A.: Geospatial Analysis: A
Comprehensive Guide to Principles, Techniques and Software Tools, 2nd
edn., Matador, Leicester, 2007.
Talke, S. A., Orton, P., and Jay, D. A.: Increasing storm tides in New York
Harbor, 1844–2013, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3149–3155,
doi:10.1002/2014GL059574, 2014.
Towey, K. L., Booth, J. F., Frei, A., and Sinclair, M. R.: Track and
Circulation Analysis of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones that Cause Strong
Precipitation and Streamflow Events in the New York City Watershed, J.
Hydrometeorol., 19, 1027–1042, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-17-0199.1, 2018.
Turner, B. L., Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R.
W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M.
L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., and Schiller, A.: A framework for vulnerability
analysis in sustainability science, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 100,
8074–8079, doi:10.1073/pnas.1231335100, 2003.
UN: Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable Development, Plan of
Implementation of the World Summit on Sustainable Development, United
Nations; World Summit on Sustainable Development (UN), 2002.
UNDESA: The World's Cities in 2016: Data Booklet, United Nations, Department
of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York, NY, 2016.
UNEP: Agenda 21, Tech. rep., United Nations Environment Programme, 1992.
UNISDR: Hyogo Declaration, 2005.
UNISDR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Making
Development Sustainable: The future of Disasster Risk Management, United
Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), Geneva, Switzerland,
2015.
van Westen, C. J., Montoya, L., Boerboom, L., and Badilla Coto, E.:
Multi-hazard risk assessment using GIS in urban areas: a case study for the
city of Turrialba, Costa Rica, 120–136, Bali Indonesia, 2002.
Welle, T. and Birkmann, J.: The World Risk Index – An Approach to Assess
Risk and Vulnerability on a Global Scale, J. Extreme Events, 2, 1550003,
doi:10.1142/S2345737615500037, 2015.
Wipulanusat, W., Nakrod, S., and Prabnarong, P.: Multi-hazard Risk Assessment
Using GIS and RS Applications: A Case Study of Pak Phanang Basin, Walailak J.
Sci. Technol., 6, 109–125, https://doi.org/10.2004/wjst.v6i1.76, 2011.
Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., and Davis, I.: At risk: Natural Hazards,
People's Vulnerability and Disasters, Routledge, London, 2014.
Zhou, S., Chen, G., Fang, L., and Nie, Y.: GIS-Based Integration of Subjective
and Objective Weighting Methods for Regional Landslides Susceptibility
Mapping, Sustainability, 8, 334, doi:10.3390/su8040334, 2016.
Short summary
Megacities are often located along coasts and are greatly exposed to multiple climatic hazards. We take New York City as an example of a coastal megacity highly affected by heat waves, inland flooding and coastal flooding. These hazards overlap spatially or temporally in the city. We develop a multi-hazard risk map to identify hotspots of risk and prioritize adaptation strategies. We find that New York City should prioritize adaptation of coastal areas while considering synergies and trade-offs.
Megacities are often located along coasts and are greatly exposed to multiple climatic hazards....
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint