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Volume 18, issue 3 | Copyright

Special issue: Landslide early warning systems: monitoring systems, rainfall...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 807-812, 2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Brief communication 13 Mar 2018

Brief communication | 13 Mar 2018

Brief communication: Using averaged soil moisture estimates to improve the performances of a regional-scale landslide early warning system

Samuele Segoni1, Ascanio Rosi1, Daniela Lagomarsino1,a, Riccardo Fanti1, and Nicola Casagli1 Samuele Segoni et al.
  • 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence, Firenze, 50121, Italy
  • anow at: Eni S.p.A, S. Donato Milanese, Milano, Italy

Abstract. We communicate the results of a preliminary investigation aimed at improving a state-of-the-art RSLEWS (regional-scale landslide early warning system) based on rainfall thresholds by integrating mean soil moisture values averaged over the territorial units of the system. We tested two approaches. The simplest can be easily applied to improve other RSLEWS: it is based on a soil moisture threshold value under which rainfall thresholds are not used because landslides are not expected to occur. Another approach deeply modifies the original RSLEWS: thresholds based on antecedent rainfall accumulated over long periods are substituted with soil moisture thresholds. A back analysis demonstrated that both approaches consistently reduced false alarms, while the second approach reduced missed alarms as well.

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Short summary
We improve the warning system (WS) used to forecast landslides in Emilia Romagna (Italy) by using averaged soil moisture estimates. We tested two approaches. The first (based on a soil moisture threshold under which the original WS is not used) is very simple, reduces false alarms and can be easily applied elsewhere. The second (integrating rainfall and soil moisture thresholds in the WS) is more complicated but reduces both false alarms and missed alarms.
We improve the warning system (WS) used to forecast landslides in Emilia Romagna (Italy) by...