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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 949-962, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-949-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
26 Mar 2018
The use of historical information for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew surge
Roberto Frau1,2, Marc Andreewsky1, and Pietro Bernardara3 1EDF R&D Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement (LNHE), Chatou, 78401, France
2Université Paris-Est, Saint-Venant Hydraulics Laboratory (ENPC, EDF R&D, CEREMA), Chatou, 78401, France
3CEREA, Joint Laboratory École des Ponts ParisTech – EDF R&D, Université Paris-Est, Marne-la-Vallée, 77455, France
Abstract. The design of effective coastal protections requires an adequate estimation of the annual occurrence probability of rare events associated with a return period up to 103 years. Regional frequency analysis (RFA) has been proven to be an applicable way to estimate extreme events by sorting regional data into large and spatially distributed datasets. Nowadays, historical data are available to provide new insight on past event estimation. The utilisation of historical information would increase the precision and the reliability of regional extreme's quantile estimation. However, historical data are from significant extreme events that are not recorded by tide gauge. They usually look like isolated data and they are different from continuous data from systematic measurements of tide gauges. This makes the definition of the duration of our observations period complicated. However, the duration of the observation period is crucial for the frequency estimation of extreme occurrences. For this reason, we introduced here the concept of credible duration. The proposed RFA method (hereinafter referenced as FAB, from the name of the authors) allows the use of historical data together with systematic data, which is a result of the use of the credible duration concept.
Citation: Frau, R., Andreewsky, M., and Bernardara, P.: The use of historical information for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew surge, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 949-962, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-949-2018, 2018.
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Short summary
The use of historical data in a regional analysis can reduce the uncertainties in extreme quantile's estimation. Historical data are significant extreme events that are not recorded by tide gauge. They usually look like isolated data and they are different from continuous data from systematic measurements of tide gauges. Thanks to the use of the credible duration concept, the proposed FAB method allows the use of historical data together with systematic data in a regional framework.
The use of historical data in a regional analysis can reduce the uncertainties in extreme...
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