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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 997-1012, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-997-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
04 Apr 2018
On the improvement of wave and storm surge hindcasts by downscaled atmospheric forcing: application to historical storms
Émilie Bresson1,a, Philippe Arbogast1, Lotfi Aouf2, Denis Paradis2, Anna Kortcheva3, Andrey Bogatchev3, Vasko Galabov3, Marieta Dimitrova3, Guillaume Morvan2, Patrick Ohl2, Boryana Tsenova3, and Florence Rabier4 1Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques – Groupe de Modélisation et d'Assimilation pour la Prévision, Toulouse, France
2Direction des Opérations pour la Prévision, Département Marine et Océanographie, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
3National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia, Bulgaria
4European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
anow at: Research Institute on Mines and Environment, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada
Abstract. Winds, waves and storm surges can inflict severe damage in coastal areas. In order to improve preparedness for such events, a better understanding of storm-induced coastal flooding episodes is necessary. To this end, this paper highlights the use of atmospheric downscaling techniques in order to improve wave and storm surge hindcasts. The downscaling techniques used here are based on existing European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses (ERA-20C, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The results show that the 10 km resolution data forcing provided by a downscaled atmospheric model gives a better wave and surge hindcast compared to using data directly from the reanalysis. Furthermore, the analysis of the most extreme mid-latitude cyclones indicates that a four-dimensional blending approach improves the whole process, as it assimilates more small-scale processes in the initial conditions. Our approach has been successfully applied to ERA-20C (the 20th century reanalysis).
Citation: Bresson, É., Arbogast, P., Aouf, L., Paradis, D., Kortcheva, A., Bogatchev, A., Galabov, V., Dimitrova, M., Morvan, G., Ohl, P., Tsenova, B., and Rabier, F.: On the improvement of wave and storm surge hindcasts by downscaled atmospheric forcing: application to historical storms, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 997-1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-997-2018, 2018.
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Short summary
Winds, waves and storm surges can inflict severe damage in coastal areas. To improve adaptability for such events, a better understanding of storm-induced coastal flooding events is necessary. This article is dedicated to evaluating wave and surge reconstruction methods based on available reanalyses data for French and Bulgarian coasts. This study shows that the wave and surge models should be forced by downscaled winds rather than modelled reanalyses.
Winds, waves and storm surges can inflict severe damage in coastal areas. To improve...
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