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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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NHESS | Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1459–1470, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfires: models, theory,...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1459–1470, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 18 Jul 2019

Research article | 18 Jul 2019

Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

Sílvia A. Nunes et al.
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ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (26 Jun 2019) by Marj Tonini
AR by Sílvia Nunes on behalf of the Authors (27 Jun 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
Publications Copernicus
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Short summary
Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to estimate the probability that the summer burned area exceeds a given threshold. The model allows making outlooks of wildfire potential with up to 1 month in advance of the fire season. When applied to the 39-year period 1980-2018, only 1 severe (one weak) year is not anticipated as potentially severe (weak). The model will assist the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.
Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to...
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