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NHESS | Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1459–1470, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfires: models, theory,...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1459–1470, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 18 Jul 2019

Research article | 18 Jul 2019

Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

Sílvia A. Nunes et al.
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Cited articles  
Amraoui, M., Liberato, M. L. R., Calado, T. J., DaCamara, C. C., Coelho, L. P., Trigo, R. M., and Gouveia, C. M.: Fire activity over Mediterranean Europe based on information from Meteosat-8, Forest Ecol. Manag., 294, 62–75, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.FORECO.2012.08.032, 2013. 
Anderson, K. R., Englefield, P., and Carr, R. J.: Predicting fire weather severity using seasonal forecasts, in: Proceedings of the Seventh Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Bar Harbour, Maine, USA, 23–26 October 2007, 10.6.1–10.6.5, 2007. 
Bedia, J., Golding, N., Casanueva, A., Iturbide, M., Buontempo, C., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Seasonal predictions of Fire Weather Index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in Mediterranean Europe, Climate Services, 9, 101–110, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2017.04.001, 2018. 
Beighley, M. and Hyde, A. C.: Portugal Wildfire Management in a New Era: Assessing Fire Risks, Resources and Reforms, Technical Report, available at: https://www.isa.ulisboa.pt/files/cef/pub/articles/2018-04/2018_Portugal_Wildfire_Management_in_a_New_Era_Engish.pdf (last access: 12 July 2019), 2018. 
Calado, T. J., DaCamara, C. C., and Gouveia, C.: Mapping the daily risk of fire in Continental Portugal, The EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Data User's Conference, Darmstadt, Germany, 8–12 September 2008, available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228448684 (last access: 12 July 2019), 2008. 
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Short summary
Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to estimate the probability that the summer burned area exceeds a given threshold. The model allows making outlooks of wildfire potential with up to 1 month in advance of the fire season. When applied to the 39-year period 1980-2018, only 1 severe (one weak) year is not anticipated as potentially severe (weak). The model will assist the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.
Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to...
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