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NHESS | Articles | Volume 19, issue 8
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1601–1618, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1601-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1601–1618, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1601-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 05 Aug 2019

Research article | 05 Aug 2019

The effects of changing climate on estuarine water levels: a United States Pacific Northwest case study

Kai Parker et al.
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Cited articles  
Abatzoglou, J. T.: Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modelling, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3413, 2013. 
Allan, J. C. and Komar, P. D.: Extreme Storms on the Pacific Northwest Coast during the 1997–98 El Niño and 1998–99 La Niña, J. Coast. Res., 18, 175–193, https://doi.org/10.2307/4299063, 2002. 
Barnard, P. L., van Ormondt, M., Erikson, L. H., Eshleman, J., Hapke, C., Ruggiero, P., Adams, P. N., and Foxgrover, A. C.: Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts, Nat. Hazards, 74, 1095–1125, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1236-y, 2014. 
Beamer, J. P., Hill, D. F., McGrath, D., Arendt, A., and Kienholz, C.: Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed, Water Resour. Res., 53, 7502–7520, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR020033, 2017. 
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Our ability to manage estuaries is currently limited by a poor understanding of how they will evolve into the future. This study explores flooding conditions at two US Pacific estuaries as controlled by changing climate. The hazard is characterized using a variety of models that track oceanic, atmospheric, and hydrologic forcing at decadal scales. It is found that flood surface height varies significantly across estuaries and can be expected to change in complex ways moving into the future.
Our ability to manage estuaries is currently limited by a poor understanding of how they will...
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