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NHESS | Articles | Volume 19, issue 8
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1737–1753, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1737-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: Flood risk assessment and management

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1737–1753, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1737-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 13 Aug 2019

Research article | 13 Aug 2019

Uncertainty quantification of flood mitigation predictions and implications for interventions

Koen D. Berends et al.

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Baptist, M. J., Babovic, V., Uthurburu, J. R., Keijzer, M., Uittenbogaard, R. E., Mynett, A., and Verwey, A.: On inducing equations for vegetation resistance, J. Hydraul. Res., 45, 435–450, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2007.9521778, 2007. a, b
Becker, A., Scholten, M., Kerkhoven, D., and Spruyt, A.: Das behördliche Modellinstrumentarium der Niederlande, in: 37. Dresdner Wasserbaukolloquium 2014 “Simulationsverfahren und Modelle für Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft”, available at: http://d-nb.info/105023037X, last access: 26 July 2019, edited by: Stamm, J., 539–548, 2014. a
Berends, K. D., Warmink, J. J., and Hulscher, S. J. M. H.: Efficient uncertainty quantification for impact analysis of human interventions in rivers, Environ. Modell. Softw., 107, 50–58, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.021, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Beven, K. and Binley, A.: GLUE: 20 years on, Hydrol. Process., 28, 5897–5918, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10082, 2014. a
Beven, K. J., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Borgomeo, E., Goda, K., Hall, J. W., Page, T., Phillips, J. C., Simpson, M., Smith, P. J., Wagener, T., and Watson, M.: Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2769–2783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018, 2018. a
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
River flooding is a major safety concern. Sophisticated models are used to design ways to decrease flood risk, but until recently it was not feasible to calculate how uncertain these model predictions are. Using a new approach, we have now quantified the uncertainty of 12 interventions along the River Waal. Results show significant but not problematically high uncertainty. We demonstrate that the choice between interventions can be different when uncertainty is taken into account.
River flooding is a major safety concern. Sophisticated models are used to design ways to...
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