Articles | Volume 19, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1807-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1807-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
20 Aug 2019
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 20 Aug 2019
| 20 Aug 2019
Load-resistance analysis: an alternative approach to tsunami damage assessment applied to the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami
Anawat Suppasri
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku
University, 468-1 Aramaki-aza Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-0845, Japan
Kwanchai Pakoksung
International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku
University, 468-1 Aramaki-aza Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-0845, Japan
Ingrid Charvet
Department of Statistical Science, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
Constance Ting Chua
Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, N2-01C-39, 50 Nanyang Avenue, 639798, Singapore
Noriyuki Takahashi
Department of Architecture and Building Science, School of
Engineering, Tohoku University, 6-6-11-1223 Aramaki-aza Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-8579, Japan
Teraphan Ornthammarath
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of
Engineering, Mahidol University, 25/25 Puttamonthon, Nakorn Pathom, 73170, Thailand
Panon Latcharote
Faculty of Science and Technology, Thammasat University, 99 Moo 18, Phaholyothin Road, Tambon Klong Nung, Amphoe Klong Luang, Pathum Thani, 12120, Thailand
Natt Leelawat
Disaster and Risk Management Information Systems Research Group,
Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Phayathai Road, Pathumwan, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand
Fumihiko Imamura
International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku
University, 468-1 Aramaki-aza Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-0845, Japan
Related authors
Kenta Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, Shinsuke Takase, Yu Otake, Michael R. Motley, Anawat Suppasri, and Kenjiro Terada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1891–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework that efficiently investigates the optimal placement of facilities probabilistically based on advanced numerical simulation. Surrogate models for the numerical simulation are constructed using a mode decomposition technique. Monte Carlo simulations using the surrogate models are performed to evaluate failure probabilities. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and the genetic algorithm, optimal placements can be investigated probabilistically.
An-Chi Cheng, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 447–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Consecutive earthquakes occurred offshore of southern Taiwan on 26 December 2006. This event revealed unusual tsunami generation and propagation, as well as unexpected consequences for the southern Taiwanese coast (i.e., amplified waves and prolonged durations). This study aims to elucidate the source characteristics of the 2006 tsunami and the important behaviors responsible for tsunami hazards in Taiwan such as wave trapping and shelf resonance.
Chatuphorn Somphong, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Tsuyoshi Nagasawa, Yuya Narita, Ryunosuke Tawatari, Shohei Iwai, Yukio Mabuchi, Saneiki Fujita, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Cipta Athanasius, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 891–907, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-891-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of past research used hypothesized landslides to simulate tsunamis, but they were still unable to properly explain the observed data. In this study, submarine landslides were simulated by using a slope-failure-theory-based numerical model for the first time. The findings were verified with post-event field observational data. They indicated the potential presence of submarine landslide sources in the southern part of the bay and were consistent with the observational tsunamis.
Elisa Lahcene, Ioanna Ioannou, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Ryan Paulik, Syamsidik Syamsidik, Frederic Bouchette, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2313–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2313-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In Indonesia, tsunamis represent a significant risk to coastal communities and buildings. Therefore, it is fundamental to deeply understand the tsunami source impact on buildings and infrastructure. This work provides a novel understanding of the relationship between wave period, ground shaking, liquefaction events, and potential building damage using tsunami fragility curves. This study represents the first investigation of colossal impacts increasing building damage.
Constance Ting Chua, Adam D. Switzer, Anawat Suppasri, Linlin Li, Kwanchai Pakoksung, David Lallemant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Ingrid Charvet, Terence Chua, Amanda Cheong, and Nigel Winspear
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Port industries are extremely vulnerable to coastal hazards such as tsunamis. Despite their pivotal role in local and global economies, there has been little attention paid to tsunami impacts on port industries. For the first time, tsunami damage data are being extensively collected for port structures and catalogued into a database. The study also provides fragility curves which describe the probability of damage exceedance for different port industries given different tsunami intensities.
Ryota Masaya, Anawat Suppasri, Kei Yamashita, Fumihiko Imamura, Chris Gouramanis, and Natt Leelawat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2823–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2823-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2823-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the sediment transport during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami event on Phra Thong Island, Thailand. We use numerical simulations and sediment transportation models, and our modelling approach confirms that the beaches were significantly eroded predominantly during the first backwash phase. Although 2004 tsunami deposits are found on the island, we demonstrate that most of the sediment was deposited in the shallow coastal area, facilitating quick recovery of the beach.
Syamsidik, Benazir, Mumtaz Luthfi, Anawat Suppasri, and Louise K. Comfort
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 549–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 December 2018, a tsunami was generated from the Mount Anak Krakatau area that was caused by volcanic flank failures. The tsunami had severe impacts on the western coasts of Banten and the southern coasts of Lampung in Indonesia. A series of surveys to measure the impacts of the tsunami was started 3 d after the tsunami and lasted for 10 d. This paper provides insights from the tsunami-affected area in terms of distribution of tsunami flow depths, boulders and building damage.
Syamsidik, Tursina, Anawat Suppasri, Musa Al'ala, Mumtaz Luthfi, and Louise K. Comfort
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 299–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-299-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-299-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This research aimed to assess the tsunami flow velocity and height reduction produced by a planned elevated road parallel to the coast of Banda Aceh called the Banda Aceh Outer Ring Road (BORR). The Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) was used to simulate eight scenarios of the tsunami. One of them was based on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Two magnitudes of earthquake were used, that is, 8.5 and 9.15 Mw. The elevated road can potentially mitigate the impacts of future tsunamis.
Anawat Suppasri, Kentaro Fukui, Kei Yamashita, Natt Leelawat, Hiroyuki Ohira, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-145-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-145-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We developed fragility functions of aquaculture rafts and eelgrass based on damage data and numerical simulation of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami. These fragility functions explain damage characteristics of both items against tsunami flow velocity. By understanding these characteristics, damage estimation and loss assessment as well as marine/fishery disaster mitigation plan and management in other areas of the world from future tsunamis can be implemented.
E. Mas, J. Bricker, S. Kure, B. Adriano, C. Yi, A. Suppasri, and S. Koshimura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 805–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-805-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-805-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Super Typhoon Haiyan devastated the Eastern Visayas islands of the Philippines on 8 November 2013. The International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS) at Tohoku University in Sendai, Japan, deployed several teams for damage recognition, relief support and collaboration with regard to this event. In this paper, we summarize the rapid damage assessment from satellite imagery conducted days after the event and report on the inundation measurements and damage surveyed in the field.
Kenta Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, Shinsuke Takase, Yu Otake, Michael R. Motley, Anawat Suppasri, and Kenjiro Terada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1891–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework that efficiently investigates the optimal placement of facilities probabilistically based on advanced numerical simulation. Surrogate models for the numerical simulation are constructed using a mode decomposition technique. Monte Carlo simulations using the surrogate models are performed to evaluate failure probabilities. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and the genetic algorithm, optimal placements can be investigated probabilistically.
An-Chi Cheng, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 447–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Consecutive earthquakes occurred offshore of southern Taiwan on 26 December 2006. This event revealed unusual tsunami generation and propagation, as well as unexpected consequences for the southern Taiwanese coast (i.e., amplified waves and prolonged durations). This study aims to elucidate the source characteristics of the 2006 tsunami and the important behaviors responsible for tsunami hazards in Taiwan such as wave trapping and shelf resonance.
Chatuphorn Somphong, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Tsuyoshi Nagasawa, Yuya Narita, Ryunosuke Tawatari, Shohei Iwai, Yukio Mabuchi, Saneiki Fujita, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Cipta Athanasius, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 891–907, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-891-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of past research used hypothesized landslides to simulate tsunamis, but they were still unable to properly explain the observed data. In this study, submarine landslides were simulated by using a slope-failure-theory-based numerical model for the first time. The findings were verified with post-event field observational data. They indicated the potential presence of submarine landslide sources in the southern part of the bay and were consistent with the observational tsunamis.
Elisa Lahcene, Ioanna Ioannou, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Ryan Paulik, Syamsidik Syamsidik, Frederic Bouchette, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2313–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2313-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In Indonesia, tsunamis represent a significant risk to coastal communities and buildings. Therefore, it is fundamental to deeply understand the tsunami source impact on buildings and infrastructure. This work provides a novel understanding of the relationship between wave period, ground shaking, liquefaction events, and potential building damage using tsunami fragility curves. This study represents the first investigation of colossal impacts increasing building damage.
Constance Ting Chua, Adam D. Switzer, Anawat Suppasri, Linlin Li, Kwanchai Pakoksung, David Lallemant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Ingrid Charvet, Terence Chua, Amanda Cheong, and Nigel Winspear
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Port industries are extremely vulnerable to coastal hazards such as tsunamis. Despite their pivotal role in local and global economies, there has been little attention paid to tsunami impacts on port industries. For the first time, tsunami damage data are being extensively collected for port structures and catalogued into a database. The study also provides fragility curves which describe the probability of damage exceedance for different port industries given different tsunami intensities.
Ryota Masaya, Anawat Suppasri, Kei Yamashita, Fumihiko Imamura, Chris Gouramanis, and Natt Leelawat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2823–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2823-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2823-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the sediment transport during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami event on Phra Thong Island, Thailand. We use numerical simulations and sediment transportation models, and our modelling approach confirms that the beaches were significantly eroded predominantly during the first backwash phase. Although 2004 tsunami deposits are found on the island, we demonstrate that most of the sediment was deposited in the shallow coastal area, facilitating quick recovery of the beach.
Syamsidik, Benazir, Mumtaz Luthfi, Anawat Suppasri, and Louise K. Comfort
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 549–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 December 2018, a tsunami was generated from the Mount Anak Krakatau area that was caused by volcanic flank failures. The tsunami had severe impacts on the western coasts of Banten and the southern coasts of Lampung in Indonesia. A series of surveys to measure the impacts of the tsunami was started 3 d after the tsunami and lasted for 10 d. This paper provides insights from the tsunami-affected area in terms of distribution of tsunami flow depths, boulders and building damage.
Syamsidik, Tursina, Anawat Suppasri, Musa Al'ala, Mumtaz Luthfi, and Louise K. Comfort
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 299–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-299-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-299-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This research aimed to assess the tsunami flow velocity and height reduction produced by a planned elevated road parallel to the coast of Banda Aceh called the Banda Aceh Outer Ring Road (BORR). The Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) was used to simulate eight scenarios of the tsunami. One of them was based on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Two magnitudes of earthquake were used, that is, 8.5 and 9.15 Mw. The elevated road can potentially mitigate the impacts of future tsunamis.
Linlin Li, Jie Yang, Chuan-Yao Lin, Constance Ting Chua, Yu Wang, Kuifeng Zhao, Yun-Ta Wu, Philip Li-Fan Liu, Adam D. Switzer, Kai Meng Mok, Peitao Wang, and Dongju Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3167–3178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3167-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3167-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Typhoon Hato was one of the most damaging natural disaster events in the western Pacific region in 2017. It caused the the worst flooding in Macau since its instrumental records began in 1925. We present a high-resolution survey map recording inundation depths and distances at 278 sites in Macau. We provide a series of inundation maps under different tidal and sea levels. The maps that highlight adaptive strategies are essential in order to keep up with the pace of rising sea level.
Anawat Suppasri, Kentaro Fukui, Kei Yamashita, Natt Leelawat, Hiroyuki Ohira, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-145-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-145-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We developed fragility functions of aquaculture rafts and eelgrass based on damage data and numerical simulation of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami. These fragility functions explain damage characteristics of both items against tsunami flow velocity. By understanding these characteristics, damage estimation and loss assessment as well as marine/fishery disaster mitigation plan and management in other areas of the world from future tsunamis can be implemented.
E. Mas, J. Bricker, S. Kure, B. Adriano, C. Yi, A. Suppasri, and S. Koshimura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 805–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-805-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-805-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Super Typhoon Haiyan devastated the Eastern Visayas islands of the Philippines on 8 November 2013. The International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS) at Tohoku University in Sendai, Japan, deployed several teams for damage recognition, relief support and collaboration with regard to this event. In this paper, we summarize the rapid damage assessment from satellite imagery conducted days after the event and report on the inundation measurements and damage surveyed in the field.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Public intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behavior
An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentalization of Landslide Early Warning Systems
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Scientists as Story-tellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Quantifying the potential benefits of risk-mitigation strategies on future flood losses in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
The Role of Response Efficacy and Self-efficacy in Disaster Preparedness Actions for Vulnerable Households
Review article: Potential of nature-based solutions to mitigate hydro-meteorological risks in sub-Saharan Africa
Invited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modelling
Classifying marine faults for hazard assessment offshore Israel: a new approach based on fault size and vertical displacement
Assessing agriculture's vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regions
Tsunami risk perception in central and southern Italy
Brief communication: Critical infrastructure impacts of the 2021 mid-July western European flood event
Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models
Building-scale flood loss estimation through vulnerability pattern characterization: application to an urban flood in Milan, Italy
Process-based flood damage modelling relying on expert knowledge: a methodological contribution applied to the agricultural sector
Dynamic risk assessment of compound hazards based on VFS–IEM–IDM: a case study of typhoon–rainstorm hazards in Shenzhen, China
Integrated seismic risk assessment in Nepal
Machine learning models to predict myocardial infarctions from past climatic and environmental conditions
Reliability of flood marks and practical relevance for flood hazard assessment in southwestern Germany
Invited perspectives: Managed realignment as a solution to mitigate coastal flood risks – optimizing success through knowledge co-production
Invited perspectives: Views of 350 natural hazard community members on key challenges in natural hazards research and the Sustainable Development Goals
Estimating return intervals for extreme climate conditions related to winter disasters and livestock mortality in Mongolia
Surveying the surveyors to address risk perception and adaptive-behaviour cross-study comparability
Comparison of sustainable flood risk management by four countries – the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the United States, and Japan – and the implications for Asian coastal megacities
Projected impact of heat on mortality and labour productivity under climate change in Switzerland
Full-scale experiments to examine the role of deadwood in rockfall dynamics in forests
Predicting drought and subsidence risks in France
The determinants affecting the intention of urban residents to prepare for flood risk in China
Strategic framework for natural disaster risk mitigation using deep learning and cost-benefit analysis
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Invited perspectives: Challenges and step changes for natural hazard – perspectives from the German Committee for Disaster Reduction (DKKV)
Invited perspectives: When research meets practice: challenges, opportunities, and suggestions from the implementation of the Floods Directive in the largest Italian river basin
Rapid landslide risk zoning toward multi-slope units of the Neikuihui tribe for preliminary disaster management
INSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)
Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Marta Sapena, Mortiz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-41, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of Early Warning Systems (EWSs) in landslide-prone areas is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify high-risk locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that EWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from €5 to €41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outlines the challenges and opportunities for successful EWS implementation.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-71, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-71, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the value of stories told between scientists to understand environmental crises, during a volcanic eruption. These help scientists make sense of how natural and social orders combine to generate risk, identifying cause and effect, exploring how risk is negotiated. Story-telling rationalizes the emotional intensity of these situations and have value not only when shared between scientists but for improving decision-making processes with uncertain information during crises.
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1349, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
Pauline Brémond, Anne-Laurence Agenais, Frédéric Grelot, and Claire Richert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3385–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is impossible to protect all issues against flood risk. To prioritise protection, economic analyses are conducted. The French Ministry of the Environment wanted to make available damage functions that we have developed for several sectors. For this, we propose a methodological framework and apply it to the model we have developed to assess damage to agriculture. This improves the description, validation, transferability and updatability of models based on expert knowledge.
Wenwu Gong, Jie Jiang, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3271–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a model named variable fuzzy set and information diffusion (VFS–IEM–IDM) to assess the dynamic risk of compound hazards, which takes into account the interrelations between the hazard drivers, deals with the problem of data sparsity, and considers the temporal dynamics of the occurrences of the compound hazards. To examine the efficacy of the proposed VFS–IEM–IDM model, a case study of typhoon–rainstorm risks in Shenzhen, China, is presented.
Sanish Bhochhibhoya and Roisha Maharjan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3211–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This is a comprehensive approach to risk assessment that considers the dynamic relationship between loss and damage. The study combines physical risk with social science to mitigate the disaster caused by earthquakes in Nepal, taking socioeconomical parameters into account such that the risk estimates can be monitored over time. The main objective is to recognize the cause of and solutions to seismic hazard, building the interrelationship between individual, natural, and built-in environments.
Lennart Marien, Mahyar Valizadeh, Wolfgang zu Castell, Christine Nam, Diana Rechid, Alexandra Schneider, Christine Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen, Kathrin Wolf, and Laurens M. Bouwer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3015–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Myocardial infarctions (MIs; heart attacks) are influenced by temperature extremes, air pollution, lack of green spaces and ageing population. Here, we apply machine learning (ML) models in order to estimate the influence of various environmental and demographic risk factors. The resulting ML models can accurately reproduce observed annual variability in MI and inter-annual trends. The models allow quantification of the importance of individual factors and can be used to project future risk.
Annette Sophie Bösmeier, Iso Himmelsbach, and Stefan Seeger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2963–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we collected a large number of marks along the Kinzig, southwestern Germany, and tested them for plausibility and temporal continuance. Despite uncertainty, the marks appeared to be an overall consistent and practical source that may also increase flood risk awareness. A wide agreement between the current flood hazard maps and the collected flood marks moreover indicated a robust local hazard assessment.
Mark Schuerch, Hannah L. Mossman, Harriet E. Moore, Elizabeth Christie, and Joshua Kiesel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2879–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal nature-based solutions to adapt to sea-level rise, such as managed realignments (MRs), are becoming increasingly popular amongst scientists and coastal managers. However, local communities often oppose these projects, partly because scientific evidence for their efficiency is limited. Here, we propose a framework to work with stakeholders and communities to define success variables of MR projects and co-produce novel knowledge on the projects’ efficiency to mitigate coastal flood risks.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Masahiko Haraguchi, Nicole Davi, Mukund Palat Rao, Caroline Leland, Masataka Watanabe, and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2751–2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mass livestock mortality during severe winters (dzud in Mongolian) is a compound event. Summer droughts are a precondition for dzud. We estimate the return levels of relevant variables: summer drought conditions and minimum winter temperature. The result shows that the return levels of drought conditions vary over time. Winter severity, however, is constant. We link climatic factors to socioeconomic impacts and draw attention to the need for index insurance.
Samuel Rufat, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Alexander Fekete, Emeline Comby, Peter J. Robinson, Iuliana Armaş, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2655–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever-richer information available. To improve the ability of researchers to build cumulative knowledge, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the accumulation of evidence. We offer several recommendations for future studies.
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Liang Emlyn Yang, Gordon Mitchell, Nigel Wright, Mingfu Guan, Xiaohui Lu, Zilin Wang, Burrell Montz, and Olalekan Adekola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2567–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) has become popular since the 1980s. This study examines the past and present flood management experiences in four developed countries (UK, the Netherlands, USA, and Japan) that have frequently suffered floods. We analysed ways towards SFRM among Asian coastal cities, which are still reliant on a hard-engineering approach that is insufficient to reduce future flood risk. We recommend stakeholders adopt mixed options to undertake SFRM practices.
Zélie Stalhandske, Valentina Nesa, Marius Zumwald, Martina S. Ragettli, Alina Galimshina, Niels Holthausen, Martin Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2531–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We model the impacts of heat on both mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland in a changing climate. We estimate 658 heat-related death currently per year in Switzerland and CHF 665 million in losses in labour productivity. Should we remain on a high-emissions pathway, these values may double or even triple by the end of the century. Under a lower-emissions scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak by around mid-century.
Adrian Ringenbach, Elia Stihl, Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Guang Lu, Andreas Stoffel, Martin Kistler, Sandro Degonda, Kevin Simmler, Daniel Mader, and Andrin Caviezel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2433–2443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forests have a recognized braking effect on rockfalls. The impact of lying deadwood, however, is mainly neglected. We conducted 1 : 1-scale rockfall experiments in three different states of a spruce forest to fill this knowledge gap: the original forest, the forest including lying deadwood and the cleared area. The deposition points clearly show that deadwood has a protective effect. We reproduced those experimental results numerically, considering three-dimensional cones to be deadwood.
Arthur Charpentier, Molly James, and Hani Ali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting consequences of drought episodes is complex, all the more when focusing on subsidence. We use 20 years of insurer data to derive a model to predict both the intensity and the severity of such events, using geophysical and climatic information located in space and time.
Tiantian Wang, Yunmeng Lu, Tiezhong Liu, Yujiang Zhang, Xiaohan Yan, and Yi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2185–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the main determinants influencing urban residents' intention to prepare for flood risk in China, we developed an integrated theoretical framework based on protection motivation theory (PMT) and validated it with structural equation modeling. The results showed that both threat perception and coping appraisal were effective in increasing residents' intention to prepare. In addition, individual heterogeneity and social context also had an impact on preparedness intentions.
Ji-Myong Kim, Sang-Guk Yum, Hyunsoung Park, and Junseo Bae
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2131–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Insurance data has been utilized with deep learning techniques to predict natural disaster damage losses in South Korea.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Benni Thiebes, Ronja Winkhardt-Enz, Reimund Schwarze, and Stefan Pickl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1969–1972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The worldwide challenge of the present as well as the future is to navigate the global community to a sustainable and secure future. Humanity is increasingly facing multiple risks under more challenging conditions. The continuation of climate change and the ever more frequent occurrence of extreme, multi-hazard, and cascading events are interacting with increasingly complex and interconnected societies.
Tommaso Simonelli, Laura Zoppi, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper discusses challenges (and solutions) emerged during a collaboration among practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists in the definition of flood damage maps in the Po River District. Social aspects were proven to be fundamental components of the risk assessment; variety of competences in the working group was key in finding solutions and revealing weaknesses of intermediate proposals. This paper finally highlights the need of duplicating such an experience at a broader European level.
Chih-Chung Chung and Zih-Yi Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Neikuihui tribe in northern Taiwan faces landslides during rainfall events. Since the government needs to respond with disaster management for the most at-risk tribes, this study develops rapid risk zoning, which involves the susceptibility, activity, exposure, and vulnerability of each slope unit of the area. Results reveal that one of the slope units of the Neikuihui tribal area has a higher risk and did suffer a landslide during the typhoon in 2016.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Max Schneider, Michelle McDowell, Peter Guttorp, E. Ashley Steel, and Nadine Fleischhut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
Cited articles
Aida, I.: Reliability of a tsunami source model derived from fault parameters, J. Phys. Earth, 26, 57–73, 1978.
Arikawa, T.: Structural behavior under impulsive tsunami loading, J. Disaster Res., 4, 377–381, 2009.
Attary, N., van de Lindt, J. W., Unnikrishnan, V. U., Barbosa, A. R., and Cox, D. T.: Methodology for development of physics-based tsunami fragilities, J. Struct. Eng., 143, 04016223, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001715, 2017.
Cabinet Office of Japan: Chapter 2: Damage from water-related disasters, p. 72, available at: http://www.bousai.go.jp/taisaku/pdf/h3003shishin_3.pdf (last access: 28 September 2018), 2017.
Charvet, I., Suppasri, A., Kimura, H., Sugawara, D., and Imamura, F.:
Fragility estimations for Kesennuma City following the 2011 Great East Japan
Tsunami based on maximum flow depths, velocities and debris impact, with
evaluation of the ordinal model's predictive accuracy, Nat. Hazards, 79, 2073–2099, 2015.
Charvet, I., Macabuag, J., and Rossetto, T.: Estimating tsunami induced
building damage through fragility functions: Critical review and research
needs, Front. Built Environ., 3, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2017.00036, 2017.
Dall'Osso, F., Dominey-Howes, D., Tarbotton, C., Summerhayes, S., and
Withycombe, G.: Revision and improvement of the PTVA-3 model for assessing
tsunami building vulnerability using “international expert judgment”:
introducing the PTVA-4 model, Nat. Hazards, 83, 1229–1256, 2016.
Dias, W. P. S., Yapa, H. D., and Peiris, L. M.N .: Tsunami vulnerability
functions from field surveys and Monte Carlo simulation, Civ. Eng. Environ. Syst., 26, 181–194, 2009.
FEMA – Federal Emergency Management Agency: Coastal Construction Manual (3 Vols.), 3rd Edn., FEMA 55, Jessup, MD, 2003.
FEMA – Federal Emergency Management Agency: Tsunami methodology technical
manual, Washington, D.C., 2013.
GSI – Geospatial Information Authority of Japan: High resolution digital elevation data, available at: http://www.gsi.go.jp/kankyochiri/Laser_demimage.html, last access: 1 April 2015.
Hasegawa, N., Suppasri, A., Makinoshima, F., and Imamura, F.: A proposal of
formula for damage prediction of each building using actual damage data from
the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami, in: Proceedings of the Annual Conference
of JSCE Tohoku branch, II-97, 2018.
Imamura, F.: Review of tsunami simulation with a finite difference method,
in: Long-Wave Runup Models, edited by: Yeh, H., Liu, P., and Synolakis, C. E., World Scientific Publishing Co., Singapore, 25–42, 1996.
Imamura, F., Koshimura, S., Mabuchi, Y., Oie, T., and Okada, K.: Tsunami
simulation of the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami using Tohoku University model (Version 1.1), available at: http://www.tsunami.civil.tohoku.ac.jp,
last access: 7 November 2011.
Japan Building Disaster Prevention Association: Seismic evaluation (General
evaluation method) Pro Ver. 3.01, Tokyo, Japan, 18 pp., 23 February 2012.
Japan Wood-Products Information and Research Center: O&A on utilization
of wooden materials, vailable at:
http://www.jawic.or.jp/qanda/index.php?no=19 (last access:
28 September 2018), 2019.
JSCE – Japan Society of Civil Engineers: Tsunami assessment method for nuclear power plants in Japan, available at:
http://www.jsce.or.jp/committee/ceofnp/Tsunami/eng/JSCE_Tsunami_060519.pdf, last access: 6 August 2016.
JSCWM – Japan Society of Material Cycles and Waste Management, Disaster Waste Countermeasure and Reconstruction Task Team: Disaster waste classification and treatment strategy manual Version 2, the last update on 15 June 2011, available at: http://eprc.kyoto-u.ac.jp/saigai/report/2011/04/001407.html (last access: 14 February 2018), 2011.
Kelman, I. and Spence, R.: An overview of flood actions on buildings, Eng. Geol., 73, 297–309, 2004.
Koshimura, S., Oie, T., Yanagisawa, H., and Imamura, F.: Developing Fragility Functions for Tsunami Damage Estimation using Numerical Model and Post-Tsunami Data from Banda Aceh, Indonesia, Coast. Eng. J., 51, 243–273,
2009.
Latcharote, P., Suppasri, A., Yamashita, A., Adriano, B., Koshimura, S., Kai, Y., and Imamura, F.: Possible Failure Mechanism of Buildings Overturned
during the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami in the Town of Onagawa, Frontiers in Built Environment, Earthquake Engineering, Mega Quakes: Cascading Earthquake Hazards and Compounding Risks, 3, 1–18, 2017.
Leelawat, N., Suppasri, A., Charvet, I., and Imamura, F.: Building damage from the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami: Quantitative assessment of influential factors – A new perspective on building damage analysis, Nat.
Hazards, 73, 449–471, 2014.
Macabuag, J., Rossetto, T., and Lloyd, T.: Sensitivity analysis of a framed
structure under several tsunami design-guidance loading regimes, in: 2nd European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Istanbul,
Turkey, 2014.
Macabuag, J., Rossetto, T., Ioannou, I., Suppasri, A., Sugawara, D., Adriano, B., Imamura, F., and Koshimura, S.: A proposed methodology for deriving tsunami fragility functions for buildings using optimum intensity measures, Nat. Hazards, 84, 1257–1285, 2016.
Macabuag, J., Rossetto, T., Ioannou, I., and Eames, I.: Investigation of the
effect of debris-induced damage for constructing tsunami fragility curves
for building, Geosciences, 8, 117, 2018.
Matsutomi, H. and Harada, K.: Tsunami-trace distribution around building and
its practical use, in: session 3-2, Proceedings of the 3rd International tsunami field symposium, 10–11 April 2010, Sendai, Japan, 2010.
MLIT – Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism:
Reconstruction Support Survey Archive, available at: http://fukkou.csis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/, last access: 4 July 2012.
MLIT – Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tour-ism,
Article 46 Enforcement Ordinance of Building Standard Law, available at:
http://elaws.e-gov.go.jp/search/elawsSearch/elaws_search/lsg0500/detail?lawId=$325CO0000000338#390 last access: 15 January 2018.
MN Housing and Building Laboratory: Wooden house cost simulation, available at: http://mnsekkei-cost.blogspot.com/ (last access ccessed: 28 September 2018), 2015.
Mori, N., Takahashi, T., and 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey Group: Nationwide Post Event Survey and Analysis of the 2011 Tohoku
Earthquake Tsunami, Coast. Eng. J., 54, 1250001, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0578563412500015, 2012.
Nadal, N. C., Zapata, R. E., Pagán, I., López, R., and Agudelo, J.:
Building damage due to riverine and coastal floods, J. Water Resour. Pl. Manage., 136, 327–336, 2009.
Nanayakkara, K. and Dias, W.: Fragility curves for structures under tsunami
loading, Nat. Hazards, 80, 471–486, 2016.
Omira, R., Baptista, M. A., Miranda, J. M., Toto, E., Catita, C., and
Catalão, J.: Tsunami vulnerability assessment of Casablanca Morocco using numerical modelling and GIS tools, Nat. Hazards, 54, 75–95, 2010.
Peiris, N.: Vulnerability functions for tsunami loss estimation, Paper no. 1121, in: The 1st European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, 3–8 September 2006, Geneva, Switzerland, 10 pp., 2006.
Reese, S., Cousins, W. J., Power, W. L., Palmer, N. G., Tejakusuma, I. G., and Nugrahadi, S.: Tsunami vulnerability of buildings and people in South Java – field observations after the July 2006 Java tsunami, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 573–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-573-2007, 2007.
Shoji, G. and Nakamura, T.: Damage assessment of road bridges subjected to
the 2011 Tohoku Pacific earthquake tsunami, J. Disaster Res., 12, 79–89, 2017.
Song, J., De Risi, R., and Goda, K.: Influence of flow velocity on tsunami loss estimation, Geosciences, 7, 114, 2017.
Suppasri, A., Koshimura, S., and Imamura, F.: Developing tsunami fragility curves based on the satellite remote sensing and the numerical modeling of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Thailand, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 173–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-173-2011, 2011.
Suppasri, A., Muhari, A., Futami, T., Imamura, F., and Shuto, N.: Loss functions of small marine vessels based on surveyed data and numerical
simulation of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami, J. Waterway Port Coast.
Ocean Eng., 140, 04014018, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000244, 2014.
Suppasri, A., Charvet, I., Imai, K., and Imamura, F.: Fragility curves based
on data from the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami in Ishinomaki city with
discussion of parameters influencing building damage, Earthq. Spectra, 31, 841–868, 2015.
Suppasri, A., Latcharote, P., Bricker, J. D., Leelawat, N., Hayashi, A.,
Yamashita, K., Makinoshima, F., Roeber, V., and Imamura, F.: Improvement of
tsunami countermeasures based on lessons from the 2011 great east japan
earthquake and tsunami-Situation after five years, Coast. Eng. J., 58, 1640011, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0578563416400118, 2016.
Suppasri, A., Fukui, K., Yamashita, K., Leelawat, N., Ohira, H., and Imamura, F.: Developing fragility functions for aquaculture rafts and eelgrass in the case of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-145-2018, 2018.
Valencia, N., Gardi, A., Gauraz, A., Leone, F., and Guillande, R.: New tsunami damage functions developed in the framework of SCHEMA project: application to European-Mediterranean coasts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2835–2846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2835-2011, 2011.
Triantafyllou, I., Novikova, T., Charalampakis, M., Fokaefs, A., and Papadopoulos, G. A.: Quantitative Tsunami Risk Assessment in Terms of Building Replacement Cost Based on Tsunami Modelling and GIS Methods: The Case of Crete Isl., Hellenic Arc, Pure Appl. Geophys., 176, 3207–3225,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1984-9, 2019.
Yeh, H., Barbosa, A. R., Ko, H., and Cawley, J. G.: Tsunami loadings on
structures: Review and analysis, Coast. Eng. Proceed., 1, 1–13, 2014.
Yokohama City, Housing and Architecture Bureau: Standard weight table of wooden house and standard weight table' calculation basis of wooden house,
available at: http://www.city.yokohama.lg.jp/kenchiku/shidou/shidou/toriatukai/gakeue/siryou3.pdf, last access: 21 February 2018.
Short summary
It is known that fragility functions reflect localities (building design standards and topography) and flow velocity is more important, as damage might occur before flow depth reaches its maximum value. This research demonstrates that it is possible to accurately predict building damage by considering related forces with high accuracy, including resistant force, based on building design standards. This method will be useful for damage assessment in areas that have no experience of tsunamis.
It is known that fragility functions reflect localities (building design standards and...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint