Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2811-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2811-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Infrasound and seismoacoustic signatures of the 28 September 2018 Sulawesi super-shear earthquake
BGR, B4.3 (Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources),
Hanover, Germany
Peter Gaebler
BGR, B4.3 (Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources),
Hanover, Germany
Lars Ceranna
BGR, B4.3 (Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources),
Hanover, Germany
Alexis Le Pichon
CEA, DAM, DIF, 91297 Arpajon, France
Julien Vergoz
CEA, DAM, DIF, 91297 Arpajon, France
Anna Perttu
EOS (Earth Observatory of Singapore), NTU (Nanyang Technological
University), Singapore
Dorianne Tailpied
EOS (Earth Observatory of Singapore), NTU (Nanyang Technological
University), Singapore
Benoit Taisne
EOS (Earth Observatory of Singapore), NTU (Nanyang Technological
University), Singapore
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Patrick Hupe, Lars Ceranna, and Christoph Pilger
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2027–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2027-2018, 2018
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Explosions in the atmosphere produce infrasound, recorded as very small pressure fluctuations. The relatively new infrasound technology also provides information on atmospheric dynamics. Within the ARISE2 project we have analysed the tidal variability using the data of the global IMS infrasound network. Our findings are compared with reanalysis data. We claim our methodology to be applicable for geographical and temporal studies of dynamic features and propose future applications.
Patrick Hupe, Lars Ceranna, Alexis Le Pichon, Robin S. Matoza, and Pierrick Mialle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4201–4230, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4201-2022, 2022
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Sound waves with frequencies below the human hearing threshold can travel long distances through the atmosphere. A global network of sensors records such infrasound to detect clandestine nuclear tests in the atmosphere. These data are generally not public. This study provides four data products based on global infrasound signal detections to make infrasound data available to a broad community. This will advance the use of infrasound observations for scientific studies and civilian applications.
Ekaterina Vorobeva, Marine De Carlo, Alexis Le Pichon, Patrick Joseph Espy, and Sven Peter Näsholm
Ann. Geophys., 39, 515–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-515-2021, 2021
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Our approach compares infrasound data and simulated microbarom soundscapes in multiple directions. Data recorded during 2014–2019 at Infrasound Station 37 in Norway were processed and compared to model results in different aspects (directional distribution, signal amplitude, and ability to track atmospheric changes during extreme events). The results reveal good agreement between the model and data. The approach has potential for near-real-time atmospheric and microbarom diagnostics.
Santiago Arellano, Bo Galle, Fredy Apaza, Geoffroy Avard, Charlotte Barrington, Nicole Bobrowski, Claudia Bucarey, Viviana Burbano, Mike Burton, Zoraida Chacón, Gustavo Chigna, Christian Joseph Clarito, Vladimir Conde, Fidel Costa, Maarten De Moor, Hugo Delgado-Granados, Andrea Di Muro, Deborah Fernandez, Gustavo Garzón, Hendra Gunawan, Nia Haerani, Thor H. Hansteen, Silvana Hidalgo, Salvatore Inguaggiato, Mattias Johansson, Christoph Kern, Manne Kihlman, Philippe Kowalski, Pablo Masias, Francisco Montalvo, Joakim Möller, Ulrich Platt, Claudia Rivera, Armando Saballos, Giuseppe Salerno, Benoit Taisne, Freddy Vásconez, Gabriela Velásquez, Fabio Vita, and Mathieu Yalire
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1167–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1167-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1167-2021, 2021
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This study presents a dataset of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from 2005–2017. Measurements were obtained by Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change (NOVAC) scanning differential optical absorption spectrometer (ScanDOAS) instruments at 32 volcanoes and processed using a standardized procedure. We show statistics of volcanic gas emissions under a variety of conditions and compare them with averages derived from measurements from space and historical inventories.
Alexandr Smirnov, Marine De Carlo, Alexis Le Pichon, Nikolai M. Shapiro, and Sergey Kulichkov
Solid Earth, 12, 503–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-503-2021, 2021
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Seismic and infrasound methods are techniques used to monitor natural events and explosions. At low frequencies, band signal can be dominated by microbaroms and microseisms. The noise observations in the Kazakh network are performed and compared with source and propagation modeling. The network is dense and well situated for studying very distant source regions of the ambient noise. The prospects are opening for the use of ocean noise in solid Earth and atmosphere tomography.
Peter Gaebler, Lars Ceranna, Nima Nooshiri, Andreas Barth, Simone Cesca, Michaela Frei, Ilona Grünberg, Gernot Hartmann, Karl Koch, Christoph Pilger, J. Ole Ross, and Torsten Dahm
Solid Earth, 10, 59–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-59-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-59-2019, 2019
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On 3 September 2017 official channels of the Democratic People’s Republic of
Korea announced the successful test of a nuclear device. This study provides a
multi-technology analysis of the 2017 North Korean event and its aftermath using a wide array of geophysical methods (seismology, infrasound, remote sensing, radionuclide monitoring, and atmospheric transport modeling). Our results clearly indicate that the September 2017 North Korean event was in fact a nuclear test.
Patrick Hupe, Lars Ceranna, and Christoph Pilger
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2027–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2027-2018, 2018
Short summary
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Explosions in the atmosphere produce infrasound, recorded as very small pressure fluctuations. The relatively new infrasound technology also provides information on atmospheric dynamics. Within the ARISE2 project we have analysed the tidal variability using the data of the global IMS infrasound network. Our findings are compared with reanalysis data. We claim our methodology to be applicable for geographical and temporal studies of dynamic features and propose future applications.
G. A. Douillet, B. Taisne, È Tsang-Hin-Sun, S. K. Müller, U. Kueppers, and D. B. Dingwell
Solid Earth, 6, 553–572, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-553-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-553-2015, 2015
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Sedimentary beds can exhibit signs of local deformation in pyroclastic strata. Patterns are reviewed and trigger mechanisms interpreted.
During an eruption, basal granular flows can have a fluidized behavior, inducing over- or underpressure at the bed interface. Basal shear can overturn strata. Large blocks ejected ballistically deform the ground when landing. Explosions at the vent produce shock waves that can destabilize a bed. These syn-eruptive triggers are specific to explosive volcanism.
Related subject area
Earthquake Hazards
Towards a dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland
Understanding flow characteristics from tsunami deposits at Odaka, Joban Coast, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model
Spring water anomalies before two consecutive earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) in Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) on 6 February 2023
Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region
Earthquake forecasting model for Albania: the area source model and the smoothing model
The footprint of a historical paleoearthquake: the sixth-century-CE event in the European western Southern Alps
Seismic background noise levels in the Italian strong-motion network
Testing machine learning models for heuristic building damage assessment applied to the Italian Database of Observed Damage (DaDO)
The seismic hazard from the Lembang Fault, Indonesia, derived from InSAR and GNSS data
Rapid estimation of seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program (LOWESS)
Characteristics and mechanisms of near-surface atmospheric electric field negative anomalies preceding the 5 September, 2022, Ms6.8 Luding earthquake, China
Towards improving the spatial testability of aftershock forecast models
Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model
Introducing inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale. Application to Europe and Eastern Turkey
The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: A case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas
Accounting for path and site effects in spatial ground-motion correlation models using Bayesian inference
Seismogenic potential and tsunami threat of the strike-slip Carboneras fault in the western Mediterranean from physics-based earthquake simulations
Earthquake hazard characterization by using entropy: application to northern Chilean earthquakes
Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: a probabilistic analysis of Italian macroseismic data
Spatiotemporal seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen
A web-based GIS (web-GIS) database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides
Evaluation of liquefaction triggering potential in Italy: a seismic-hazard-based approach
Earthquake vulnerability assessment of the built environment in the city of Srinagar, Kashmir Himalaya, using a geographic information system
Earthquake-induced landslides in Norway
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Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
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Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
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This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
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Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
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The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
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Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
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Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
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We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
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This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
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The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3031–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, 2023
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Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1761, 2023
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Atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before earthquake, which is very essential to study the coupling process between coversphere and atmosphere aroused by earthquake. This study discovers the AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022, and clarify the relations between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
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Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-127, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1370, 2023
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Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-30, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimates the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi-R-J model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
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Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
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The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
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In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
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This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
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The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1835–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, 2023
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Knowing the spatiotemporal seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when a seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around the southern Central Range or an accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
Luca Schilirò, Mauro Rossi, Federica Polpetta, Federica Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1789–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, 2023
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We present a database of the main scientific articles published on earthquake-triggered landslides in the last 4 decades. To enhance data viewing, the articles were catalogued into a web-based GIS, which was specifically designed to show different types of information, such as bibliometric information, the relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and earthquake(s) addressed. Such information can be useful to obtain a general overview of the topic, especially for a broad readership.
Simone Barani, Gabriele Ferretti, and Davide Scafidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1685–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, 2023
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In the present study, we analyze ground-motion hazard maps and hazard disaggregation in order to define areas in Italy where liquefaction triggering due to seismic activity can not be excluded. The final result is a screening map for all of Italy that classifies sites in terms of liquefaction triggering potential according to their seismic hazard level. The map and the associated data are freely accessible at the following web address: www.distav.unige.it/rsni/milq.php.
Midhat Fayaz, Shakil A. Romshoo, Irfan Rashid, and Rakesh Chandra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, 2023
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Earthquakes cause immense loss of lives and damage to properties, particularly in major urban centres. The city of Srinagar, which houses around 1.5 million people, is susceptible to high seismic hazards due to its peculiar geological setting, urban setting, demographic profile, and tectonic setting. Keeping in view all of these factors, the present study investigates the earthquake vulnerability of buildings in Srinagar, an urban city in the northwestern Himalayas, India.
Mathilde B. Sørensen, Torbjørn Haga, and Atle Nesje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1577–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, 2023
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Most Norwegian landslides are triggered by rain or snowmelt, and earthquakes have not been considered a relevant trigger mechanism even though some cases have been reported. Here we systematically search historical documents and databases and find 22 landslides induced by eight large Norwegian earthquakes. The Norwegian earthquakes induce landslides at distances and over areas that are much larger than those found for global datasets.
Chiara Varone, Gianluca Carbone, Anna Baris, Maria Chiara Caciolli, Stefania Fabozzi, Carolina Fortunato, Iolanda Gaudiosi, Silvia Giallini, Marco Mancini, Luca Paolella, Maurizio Simionato, Pietro Sirianni, Rose Line Spacagna, Francesco Stigliano, Daniel Tentori, Luca Martelli, Giuseppe Modoni, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1371–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, 2023
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In 2012, Italy was struck by a seismic crisis characterized by two main shocks and relevant liquefaction events. Terre del Reno is one of the municipalities that experienced the most extensive liquefaction effects; thus it was chosen as case study for a project devoted to defining a new methodology to assess the liquefaction susceptibility. In this framework, about 1800 geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological investigations were collected and stored in the publicly available PERL dataset.
Samuel Roeslin, Quincy Ma, Pavan Chigullapally, Joerg Wicker, and Liam Wotherspoon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1207–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new framework for the rapid seismic loss prediction for residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. The initial model was trained on insurance claims from the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning were used to develop the prediction model, which also delivered useful insights. The model can rapidly be updated with data from new earthquakes. It can then be applied to predict building loss in Christchurch.
Sasan Motaghed, Mozhgan Khazaee, Nasrollah Eftekhari, and Mohammad Mohammadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1117–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, 2023
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We modify the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) formulation by replacing the Gutenberg–Richter power law with the SCP (Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas) non-extensive model for earthquake size distribution and call it NEPSHA. The proposed method (NEPSHA) is implemented in the Tehran region, and the results are compared with the classic PSHA method. The hazard curves show that NEPSHA gives a higher hazard, especially in the range of practical return periods.
Paola Sbarra, Pierfrancesco Burrato, Valerio De Rubeis, Patrizia Tosi, Gianluca Valensise, Roberto Vallone, and Paola Vannoli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1007–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, 2023
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Earthquakes are fundamental for understanding how the earth works and for assessing seismic risk. We can easily measure the magnitude and depth of today's earthquakes, but can we also do it for pre-instrumental ones? We did it by analyzing the decay of earthquake effects (on buildings, people, and objects) with epicentral distance. Our results may help derive data that would be impossible to obtain otherwise, for any country where the earthquake history extends for centuries, such as Italy.
Haekal A. Haridhi, Bor Shouh Huang, Kuo Liang Wen, Arif Mirza, Syamsul Rizal, Syahrul Purnawan, Ilham Fajri, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Char Shine Liu, Chao Shing Lee, Crispen R. Wilson, Tso-Ren Wu, Ichsan Setiawan, and Van Bang Phung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, 2023
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Near the northern end of Sumatra, the horizontal movement Sumatran fault zone extended to its northern offshore. The movement of offshore fault segments trigger submarine landslides and induce tsunamis. Scenarios of a significant tsunami caused by the combined effect of an earthquake and its triggered submarine landslide at the coast were proposed in this study. Based on our finding, the landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this region should be urgently considered.
Lixin Wu, Yuan Qi, Wenfei Mao, Jingchen Lu, Yifan Ding, Boqi Peng, and Busheng Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, 2023
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Multiple seismic anomalies were reported to be related to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. By sufficiently investigating both the space–time features and the physical models of the seismic anomalies, the coupling mechanisms of these anomalies in 3D space were revealed and an integrated framework to strictly root the sources of various anomalies was proposed. This study provides a practical solution for scrutinizing reliable seismic anomalies from diversified earthquake observations.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, and Igor Gómez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, 2023
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One of the most effective ways to describe the seismicity of a region is to map the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter law. This research proposes the study of the spatial cell-event distance distribution to define the smoothing kernel that controls the influence of the data. The results of this methodology depict tectonic stress changes before and after intense earthquakes happen, so it could enable operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and tectonic source profiling.
Pierre Henry, M. Sinan Özeren, Nurettin Yakupoğlu, Ziyadin Çakir, Emmanuel de Saint-Léger, Olivier Desprez de Gésincourt, Anders Tengberg, Cristele Chevalier, Christos Papoutsellis, Nazmi Postacıoğlu, Uğur Dogan, Hayrullah Karabulut, Gülsen Uçarkuş, and M. Namık Çağatay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3939–3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, 2022
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Seafloor instruments at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara recorded disturbances caused by earthquakes, addressing the minimum magnitude that may be recorded in the sediment. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake caused turbidity but little current. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake caused a mudflow and strong currents that spread sediment on the seafloor over several kilometers. However, most known earthquake deposits in the Sea of Marmara spread over larger zones and should correspond to larger earthquakes.
Nicola Alessandro Pino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3787–3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, 2022
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The 1908 Messina Straits earthquake is one of the most severe seismic catastrophes in human history and is periodically back in the public discussion because of a project of building a bridge across the Straits. Some models proposed for the fault assume precursory subsidence preceding the quake, resulting in a structure significantly different from the previously debated ones and important hazard implications. The analysis of the historical sea level data allows the rejection of this hypothesis.
Jack N. Williams, Luke N. J. Wedmore, Åke Fagereng, Maximilian J. Werner, Hassan Mdala, Donna J. Shillington, Christopher A. Scholz, Folarin Kolawole, Lachlan J. M. Wright, Juliet Biggs, Zuze Dulanya, Felix Mphepo, and Patrick Chindandali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3607–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, 2022
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We use geologic and GPS data to constrain the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes that occur along active faults in Malawi. These faults slip in earthquakes as the tectonic plates on either side of the East African Rift in Malawi diverge. Low divergence rates (0.5–1.5 mm yr) and long faults (5–200 km) imply that earthquakes along these faults are rare (once every 1000–10 000 years) but could have high magnitudes (M 7–8). These data can be used to assess seismic risk in Malawi.
Mohamadreza Hosseini and Habib Rahimi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3571–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, 2022
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Earthquakes, not only because of earth-shaking but also because of surface ruptures, are a serious threat to many human activities. Reducing earthquake losses and damage requires predicting the amplitude and location of ground movements and possible surface displacements in the future. Using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method, the surface displacement of the north Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the possible displacement in different scenarios has been estimated.
Maria Francesca Ferrario
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3527–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, 2022
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I mapped over 5000 landslides triggered by a moment magnitude 6.0 earthquake that occurred in 2015 in the Sabah region (Malaysia). I analyzed their number, dimension and spatial distribution by dividing the territory into 1 km2 cells. I applied the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07) scale, which allows the categorization of earthquake damage due to environmental effects. The presented approach promotes the collaboration among the experts in landslide mapping and in ESI-07 assignment.
Kirsty Bayliss, Mark Naylor, Farnaz Kamranzad, and Ian Main
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3231–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, 2022
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We develop probabilistic earthquake forecasts that include different spatial information (e.g. fault locations, strain rate) using a point process method. The performance of these models is tested over three different periods and compared with existing forecasts. We find that our models perform well, with those using simulated catalogues that make use of uncertainty in model parameters performing better, demonstrating potential to improve earthquake forecasting using Bayesian approaches.
Francesco Visini, Carlo Meletti, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Silvia Pondrelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, 2022
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As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Mariana Belferman, Amotz Agnon, Regina Katsman, and Zvi Ben-Avraham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2553–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, 2022
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Internal fluid pressure in pores leads to breaking. With this mechanical principle and a correlation between historical water level changes and seismicity, we explore possible variants for water level reconstruction in the Dead Sea basin. Using the best-correlated variant, an additional indication is established regarding the location of historical earthquakes. This leads us to propose a certain forecast for the next earthquake in view of the fast and persistent dropping level of the Dead Sea.
Xuezhong Chen, Yane Li, and Lijuan Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2543–2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, 2022
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When the tectonic stress in the crust increases, the b value will decrease, meaning the effects of tidal stresses are enhanced gradually. Increase in the tidal Coulomb failure stress might promote the occurrence of earthquakes, whereas its decrease could have an opposite effect. This observation may provide an insight into the processes leading to the Wenchuan earthquake and its precursors.
Fabrizio Marra, Alberto Frepoli, Dario Gioia, Marcello Schiattarella, Andrea Tertulliani, Monica Bini, Gaetano De Luca, and Marco Luppichini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2445–2457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2445-2022, 2022
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Through the analysis of the morphostructural setting in which the seismicity of Rome is framed, we explain why the city should not expect to suffer damage from a big earthquake.
Chengjun Feng, Guangliang Gao, Shihuai Zhang, Dongsheng Sun, Siyu Zhu, Chengxuan Tan, and Xiaodong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2257–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2257-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2257-2022, 2022
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We show how FSP (Fault Slip Potential) software can be used in quantitative screening to estimate the fault slip potential in a region with some uncertainties in the ambient stress field and to assess the reactivation potential on these faults of presumably higher criticality in response to fluid injection. The case study of the Matouying enhanced geothermal system (EGS) field has important implications for deep geothermal exploitation in China, especially for the Gonghe EGS in Qinghai Province.
Patrick Oswald, Michael Strasser, Jens Skapski, and Jasper Moernaut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2057-2022, 2022
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This study provides the first regional earthquake catalogue of the eastern Alps spanning 16 000 years by using three lake paleoseismic records. Recurrence statistics reveal that earthquakes recur every 1000–2000 years in an aperiodic pattern. The magnitudes of paleo-earthquakes exceed the historically documented values. This study estimates magnitude and source areas for severe paleo-earthquakes, and their shaking effects are explored in the broader study area.
Haoyu Wen, Hong-Jia Chen, Chien-Chih Chen, Massimo Pica Ciamarra, and Siew Ann Cheong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1931–1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1931-2022, 2022
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Recently, there has been growing interest from earth scientists to use the electric field deep underground to forecast earthquakes. We go one step further by using the electric fields, which can be directly measured, to separate/classify time periods with two labels only according to the statistical properties of the electric fields. By checking against historical earthquake records, we found time periods covered by one of the two labels to have significantly more frequent earthquakes.
Karma Tempa, Komal Raj Aryal, Nimesh Chettri, Giovanni Forte, and Dipendra Gautam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1893–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1893-2022, 2022
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This paper performs site response analysis and studies soil amplification for Bhutan Himalaya. A sensitivity study is performed to assess the effect of variation in strong ground motion.
Tayeb Smail, Mohamed Abed, Ahmed Mebarki, and Milan Lazecky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1609–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1609-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1609-2022, 2022
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The Sentinel-1 SAR datasets and Sentinel-2 data are used in this study to investigate the impact of natural hazards (earthquakes and landslides) on struck areas. In InSAR processing, the use of DInSAR, CCD methods, and the LiCSBAS tool permit generation of time-series analysis of ground changes. Three land failures were detected in the study area. CCD is suitable to map landslides that may remain undetected using DInSAR. In Grarem, the failure rim is clear in coherence and phase maps.
Jonatan Glehman and Michael Tsesarsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1451–1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1451-2022, 2022
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Due to an insufficient number of recorded moderate–strong earthquakes in Israel, estimating the ground motions and the subsequent seismic hazard mitigation becomes a challenge. To fill this gap, we performed a series of 3-D numerical simulations of moderate and moderate–strong earthquakes. We examined the ground motions and their variability through a self-developed statistical model. However, the model cannot fully capture the ground motion variability due to the local seismotectonic setting.
Federico Mori, Amerigo Mendicelli, Gaetano Falcone, Gianluca Acunzo, Rose Line Spacagna, Giuseppe Naso, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 947–966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-947-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-947-2022, 2022
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This work addresses the problem of the ground motion estimation over large areas as an important tool for seismic-risk reduction policies. In detail, the near-real-time estimation of ground motion is a key issue for emergency system management. Starting from this consideration, the present work proposes the application of a machine learning approach to produce ground motion maps, using nine input proxies. Such proxies consider seismological, geophysical, and morphological parameters.
Margarida Ramalho, Luis Matias, Marta Neres, Michele M. C. Carafa, Alexandra Carvalho, and Paula Teves-Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-117-2022, 2022
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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is the most common tool used to decide on the acceptable seismic risk by society and mitigation measures. In slowly deforming regions, such Iberia, the earthquake generation models (EGMs) for PSHA suffer from great uncertainty. In this work we propose two sanity tests to be applied to EGMs, comparing the EGM moment release with constrains derived from GNSS observations or neotectonic modelling. Similar tests should be part of other region studies.
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Short summary
This paper provides infrasound data analysis, modeling, and interpretation of the source characteristics of the 28 September 2018 magnitude 7.5 Sulawesi earthquake. Epicentral ground movement by the earthquake rupture as well as the secondary shaking of nearby mountainous topography is responsible for the strong infrasound generated. Findings allow one to improve knowledge of infrasonic and seismoacoustic source processes and the monitoring capabilities of the infrasound arrays used.
This paper provides infrasound data analysis, modeling, and interpretation of the source...
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