Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-661-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-661-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Testing empirical and synthetic flood damage models: the case of Italy
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
Anna Rita Scorzini
Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Francesca Carisi
DICAM, Water Resources, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Arthur H. Essenfelder
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
Alessio Domeneghetti
DICAM, Water Resources, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Jaroslav Mysiak
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
Attilio Castellarin
DICAM, Water Resources, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Related authors
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, 2022
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We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the North Adriatic Italian coast, considering sea level rise up to the year 2100, and perform a cost–benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. The study uses nearshore hydrodynamic modelling. Our findings represent a useful indication for disaster risk management, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return on investments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari, Mattia Amadio, Tuan Ngo, and Jaroslav Mysiak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1047–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1047-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1047-2017, 2017
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Floods are frequent natural hazards in Italy, triggering significant adverse consequences on the economy every year. Their impact is expected to worsen in the near future due to socio-economic development and climate variability. To be able to reduce the probability and magnitude of expected economic losses, flood risk managers need to be correctly informed about the potential damage from flood hazards. In this study, we have developed a new and accurate model for Italian residential buildings.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
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In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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INSYDE 2.0, a tool for flood damage modelling to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simone Persiano, Alessio Pugliese, Alberto Aloe, Jon Olav Skøien, Attilio Castellarin, and Alberto Pistocchi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4435–4443, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4435-2022, 2022
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For about 24000 river basins across Europe, this study provides a continuous representation of the streamflow regime in terms of empirical flow–duration curves (FDCs), which are key signatures of the hydrological behaviour of a catchment and are widely used for supporting decisions on water resource management as well as for assessing hydrologic change. FDCs at ungauged sites are estimated by means of a geostatistical procedure starting from data observed at about 3000 sites across Europe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
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This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrea Magnini, Michele Lombardi, Simone Persiano, Antonio Tirri, Francesco Lo Conti, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1469–1486, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1469-2022, 2022
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We retrieve descriptors of the terrain morphology from a digital elevation model of a 105 km2 study area and blend them through decision tree models to map flood susceptibility and expected water depth. We investigate this approach with particular attention to (a) the comparison with a selected single-descriptor approach, (b) the goodness of decision trees, and (c) the performance of these models when applied to data-scarce regions. We find promising pathways for future research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
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The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, 2022
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We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the North Adriatic Italian coast, considering sea level rise up to the year 2100, and perform a cost–benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. The study uses nearshore hydrodynamic modelling. Our findings represent a useful indication for disaster risk management, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return on investments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephen Jewson, Giuliana Barbato, Paola Mercogliano, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Maximiliano Sassi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 329–346, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-329-2021, 2021
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Climate model simulations are uncertain. In some cases this makes it difficult to know how to use them. Significance testing is often used to deal with this issue but has various shortcomings. We describe two alternative ways to manage uncertainty in climate model simulations that avoid these shortcomings. We test them on simulations of future rainfall over Europe and show they produce more accurate projections than either using unadjusted climate model output or statistical testing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020
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Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Alice Gallazzi, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2565–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2565-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2565-2019, 2019
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The paper presents AGRIDE-c: a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops. The model estimates both the physical damage on the plants and its economic consequences on the income of the farmers. This allows AGRIDE-c to support effective damage mitigation strategies, at both public and individual farmer levels. The model can be adapted to different geographical and economic contexts, as exemplified by its implementation for the context of northern Italy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Proc. IAHS, 380, 3–8, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, 2018
Jaroslav Mysiak, Sergio Castellari, Blaz Kurnik, Rob Swart, Patrick Pringle, Reimund Schwarze, Henk Wolters, Ad Jeuken, and Paul van der Linden
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3137–3143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3137-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3137-2018, 2018
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Reducing disaster risks and adapting to climate change are ever more important policy goals. However, policies, methods, and practices across both policy areas often lack coherence, and opportunities are not fully exploited to build up resilience. The report "Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe" of the European Environment Agency identified several ways for how coherence and resilience can be built through knowledge sharing, collaboration, and investments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5735–5739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, 2018
Alessio Pugliese, Simone Persiano, Stefano Bagli, Paolo Mazzoli, Juraj Parajka, Berit Arheimer, René Capell, Alberto Montanari, Günter Blöschl, and Attilio Castellarin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4633–4648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, 2018
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This research work focuses on the development of an innovative method for enhancing the predictive capability of macro-scale rainfall–runoff models by means of a geostatistical apporach. In our method, one can get enhanced streamflow simulations without any further model calibration. Indeed, this method is neither computational nor data-intensive and is implemented only using observed streamflow data and a GIS vector layer with catchment boundaries. Assessments are performed in the Tyrol region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Francesca Carisi, Kai Schröter, Alessio Domeneghetti, Heidi Kreibich, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, 2018
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By analyzing a comprehensive loss dataset of affected private households after a recent river flood event in northern Italy, we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy). We develop empirical uni- and multivariable loss models for the residential sector. Outcomes highlight that the latter seem to outperform the former and, in addition, results show a higher accuracy of univariable models based on local data compared to literature ones derived for different contexts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari, Mattia Amadio, Tuan Ngo, and Jaroslav Mysiak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1047–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1047-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1047-2017, 2017
Short summary
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Floods are frequent natural hazards in Italy, triggering significant adverse consequences on the economy every year. Their impact is expected to worsen in the near future due to socio-economic development and climate variability. To be able to reduce the probability and magnitude of expected economic losses, flood risk managers need to be correctly informed about the potential damage from flood hazards. In this study, we have developed a new and accurate model for Italian residential buildings.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Francesco Dottori, Rui Figueiredo, Mario L. V. Martina, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, 2016
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INSYDE is a new synthetic flood damage model based on a component-by-component analysis of physical damage to buildings. The damage functions are designed using an expert-based approach with the support of existing scientific and technical literature, loss adjustment studies, and damage surveys. The model structure is designed to be transparent and flexible, and therefore it can be applied in different geographical contexts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jaroslav Mysiak and C. Dionisio Pérez-Blanco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2403–2419, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2403-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2403-2016, 2016
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Public–private partnerships (PPPs) have gained importance as a means of providing sustainable, equitable and affordable catastrophic natural hazard insurance. This paper reviews and summarizes the manifold legal background that influences the provision of insurance against natural catastrophes and examines how PPPs designed for sharing and transferring risk operate within the European regulatory constraints, illustrated on the example of the UK Flood Reinsurance Scheme.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jaroslav Mysiak, Swenja Surminski, Annegret Thieken, Reinhard Mechler, and Jeroen Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2189–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, 2016
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In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, March 14–18, 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR), and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elco E. Koks, Lorenzo Carrera, Olaf Jonkeren, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Trond G. Husby, Mark Thissen, Gabriele Standardi, and Jaroslav Mysiak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1911-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1911-2016, 2016
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In this study we analyze the economic consequences for two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a regionally CGE model. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact is negative in all models though.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Francesca Carisi, Alessio Domeneghetti, and Attilio Castellarin
Proc. IAHS, 373, 161–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-161-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-161-2016, 2016
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Can differential land-subsidence significantly alter river flooding dynamics, and thus flood risk in flood prone areas? In the area around Ravenna, in Italy, that experimented a cumulative drop of more than 1.5 m after World War II due to groundwater pumping and gas production platforms, we compared the actual effects on flood-hazard dynamics of differential land-subsidence relative to those associated with other man-made topographic alterations, which proved to be much more significant.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simone Persiano, Attilio Castellarin, Jose Luis Salinas, Alessio Domeneghetti, and Armando Brath
Proc. IAHS, 373, 95–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-95-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-95-2016, 2016
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The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review reference procedures for design flood estimation. Our study focuses on Triveneto (Italy) and proposes an update of the existing reference procedure by properly considering climate and scale controls on flood frequency. Moreover, the study highlights the remarkable influence of a single extreme-floods year on analyses for detecting possible changes in flood frequency regime.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
F. Carisi, A. Domeneghetti, and A. Castellarin
Proc. IAHS, 370, 209–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-209-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-209-2015, 2015
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Our study proposes simplified graphical tools (Hypsometric Vulnerability Curves) for assessing the recent dynamics of the flood vulnerability and risk over a large floodable area along the River Po, Northern Italy, and for defining sustainable flood-risk mitigation strategies. We assess the accuracy of the proposed methodology, based on inundation scenarios simulated with a quasi-2D model, by means of a comparison with a traditional approach relying on the simulations of a to a fully-2D model.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, 2015
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We present the outcomes of a collaborative hydrological experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory. Moving from the definition of accurate protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied by the research groups, which then engaged in a comparative discussion. The results revealed that sharing protocols and running the experiment within a controlled environment is fundamental for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
J. L. Salinas, A. Castellarin, A. Viglione, S. Kohnová, and T. R. Kjeldsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4381–4389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4381-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4381-2014, 2014
A. Pugliese, A. Castellarin, and A. Brath
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3801–3816, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3801-2014, 2014
M. P. Hare, C. van Bers, P. van der Keur, H. J. Henriksen, J. Luther, C. Kuhlicke, F. Jaspers, C. Terwisscha van Scheltinga, J. Mysiak, E. Calliari, K. Warner, H. Daniel, J. Coppola, and P. F. McGrath
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2157–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2157-2014, 2014
A. Domeneghetti, S. Vorogushyn, A. Castellarin, B. Merz, and A. Brath
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3127–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, 2013
S. A. Archfield, A. Pugliese, A. Castellarin, J. O. Skøien, and J. E. Kiang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1575–1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1575-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1575-2013, 2013
E. Baratti, A. Montanari, A. Castellarin, J. L. Salinas, A. Viglione, and A. Bezzi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4651–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, 2012
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Building-scale flood loss estimation through vulnerability pattern characterization: application to an urban flood in Milan, Italy
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
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A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
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The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
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In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
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We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
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Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
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Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
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This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
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This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
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This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
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We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
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Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
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A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
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This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
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Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
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This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2540, 2023
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The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of Life Cycle Consequence (LCCon) Analysis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
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This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, 2023
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Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho-Chi-Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
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Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
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This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, Wouter J. W. Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeff Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-163, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-149, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth and economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008 – 2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gomez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1794, 2023
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We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of a high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policy makers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-139, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios, by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and the decision making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
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Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
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Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
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This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
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To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
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The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
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Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
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Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
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The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
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This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
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The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
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Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
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In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
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Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
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Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
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Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
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In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
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This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, 2023
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This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
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This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
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The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
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This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
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Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022
Short summary
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This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
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Short summary
Flood risk management relies on assessments performed using flood loss models of different complexities. We compared the performances of expert-based and empirical damage models on three major flood events in northern Italy. Our findings suggest that multivariate models have better potential to provide reliable damage estimates if extensive ancillary characterisation data are available. Expert-based approaches are better suited for transferability compared to empirically based approaches.
Flood risk management relies on assessments performed using flood loss models of different...
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