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NHESS | Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 697–713, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-697-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 697–713, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-697-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 02 Apr 2019

Research article | 02 Apr 2019

Event-based probabilistic risk assessment of livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Tao Ye et al.

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Anderson, D., Davidson, R. A., Himoto, K., and Scawthorn, C.: Statistical Modeling of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku, Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, Risk Anal., 36, 378–395, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12455, 2016. 
Bai, Y., Zhang, X., and Xu, P.: The Snow Disaster Risk Assessment of Animal Husbandry in Qinghai Province, J. Qinghai Norm. Univers. (Nat. Sci.), 1, 71–77, https://doi.org/10.16229/j.cnki.issn1001-7542.2011.01.004, 2011. 
Basang, D., Barthel, K., and Olseth, J.: Satellite and Ground Observations of Snow Cover in Tibet during 2001–2015, Remote Sens., 9, 1201, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9111201, 2017. 
Birkmann, J. and Welle, T.: The WorldRiskIndex 2016: Reveals the Necessity for Regional Cooperation in Vulnerability Reduction, J. Extrem. Events, 03, 1650005, https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737616500056, 2016. 
Carleton, T. A. and Hsiang, S. M.: Social and economic impacts of climate, Science, 353, 6304, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad9837, 2016. 
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Short summary
Livestock and their owners in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau has long suffered from snow disaster. In order to help the local herder community better prepare for potential loss, we developed a probabilistic disaster-event simulation approach, from which livestock loss induced by a snow disaster with specific intensity and local prevention capacity could be predicted. By using this method, we managed to estimate snow disaster duration, livestock loss rate, and number at different return periods.
Livestock and their owners in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau has long suffered from snow...
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