Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-425-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-425-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Feb 2020
Research article |
| 07 Feb 2020
| 07 Feb 2020
Evaluation of two hydrometeorological ensemble strategies for flash-flood forecasting over a catchment of the eastern Pyrenees
Institut de Mécanique des Fluides de Toulouse (IMFT), Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Arnau Amengual
Grup de Meteorologia, Departament de Física, Universitat de les
Illes Balears, Palma, Majorca, Spain
Romu Romero
Grup de Meteorologia, Departament de Física, Universitat de les
Illes Balears, Palma, Majorca, Spain
Ernest Bladé
Institut FLUMEN, E.T.S. d'Eng. De Camins, Canals i Ports de Barcelona, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
Marcos Sanz-Ramos
Institut FLUMEN, E.T.S. d'Eng. De Camins, Canals i Ports de Barcelona, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
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Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1199–1221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1199-2023, 2023
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Predicting river morphology evolution is very complicated, especially for mountain rivers with complex morphologies such as the Lac des Gaves reach in France. A 2D hydromorphological model was developed to reproduce the channel's evolution and provide reliable volumetric predictions while revealing the challenge of choosing adapted sediment transport and friction laws. Our model can provide decision-makers with reliable predictions to design suitable restoration measures for this reach.
Abubakar Haruna, Pierre-Andre Garambois, Helene Roux, Pierre Javelle, and Maxime Jay-Allemand
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-414, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-414, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We compared three hydrological models in a flash flood modelling framework. We first identified the sensitive parameters of each model, then compared their performances in terms of outlet discharge and soil moisture simulation. We found out that resulting from the differences in their complexities/process representation, performance depends on the aspect/measure used. The study then highlights and proposed some future investigations/modifications to improve the models.
Judith Eeckman, Hélène Roux, Audrey Douinot, Bertrand Bonan, and Clément Albergel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1425–1446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1425-2021, 2021
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The risk of flash flood is of growing importance for populations, particularly in the Mediterranean area in the context of a changing climate. The representation of soil processes in models is a key factor for flash flood simulation. The importance of the various methods for soil moisture estimation are highlighted in this work. Local measurements from the field as well as data derived from satellite imagery can be used to assess the performance of model outputs.
Audrey Douinot, Hélène Roux, Pierre-André Garambois, and Denis Dartus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5317–5340, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5317-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5317-2018, 2018
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The distributed, process-oriented model, MARINE, was used to test several hypotheses of flow dynamics in soils during flash flood events in the Mediterranean area. Results show that the most realistic hypothesis for each catchment is consistent with existing in situ observations and measurements. The study also highlights the potential of distributed modelling and spatial observations in hydrology, especially in dealing with equifinality issues.
Rabab Yassine, Ludovic Cassan, Hélène Roux, Olivier Frysou, and François Pérès
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1199–1221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1199-2023, 2023
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Predicting river morphology evolution is very complicated, especially for mountain rivers with complex morphologies such as the Lac des Gaves reach in France. A 2D hydromorphological model was developed to reproduce the channel's evolution and provide reliable volumetric predictions while revealing the challenge of choosing adapted sediment transport and friction laws. Our model can provide decision-makers with reliable predictions to design suitable restoration measures for this reach.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-130, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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On 22 October 2019, the Francolí river basin (Catalonia, Spain) experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. The main hydrometeorological factors are investigated. The social response times are also collected and compared with catchment dynamics in order to examine the adequacy of monitoring and warning issuance. Finally, the study provides recommendations aimed at minimizing losses and improving preparedness for similar natural hazards in the future.
Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1159–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, 2022
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On 12 and 13 September 2019, a long-lasting heavy precipitation episode resulted in widespread flash flooding over eastern Spain. Well-organized and quasi-stationary convective structures impacted a vast area with rainfall amounts over 200 mm. The very dry initial soil moisture conditions resulted in a dampened hydrological response: until runoff thresholds were exceeded, infiltration-excess generation did not start. This threshold-based behaviour is explored through simple scaling theory.
Abubakar Haruna, Pierre-Andre Garambois, Helene Roux, Pierre Javelle, and Maxime Jay-Allemand
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-414, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-414, 2021
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We compared three hydrological models in a flash flood modelling framework. We first identified the sensitive parameters of each model, then compared their performances in terms of outlet discharge and soil moisture simulation. We found out that resulting from the differences in their complexities/process representation, performance depends on the aspect/measure used. The study then highlights and proposed some future investigations/modifications to improve the models.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1425–1446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1425-2021, 2021
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The risk of flash flood is of growing importance for populations, particularly in the Mediterranean area in the context of a changing climate. The representation of soil processes in models is a key factor for flash flood simulation. The importance of the various methods for soil moisture estimation are highlighted in this work. Local measurements from the field as well as data derived from satellite imagery can be used to assess the performance of model outputs.
Marcos Sanz-Ramos, Ernest Bladé, Pere Oller, Carlos A. Andrade, and Glòria Furdada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-423, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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Dense snow avalanche propagation and deposition can be modelled using similar equations than for water motion changing the friction terms. Due to that, the avalanche tends to have a fluid-like behaviour. Thus, these equations must be properly balanced in order to avoid this behaviour, also including nonhydrostatic pressure and specific numerical techniques to stop the avalanche without any nonphysically based assumption. These improvements could help in a better snow avalanche modelling.
Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz, Arnau Amengual, Celso Garcia, Enrique Morán-Tejeda, Víctor Homar, Aina Maimó-Far, Alejandro Hermoso, Climent Ramis, and Romualdo Romero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2597–2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2597-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2597-2019, 2019
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On 9 October 2018, an extreme convective storm (> 300 mm accumulated in 6 h) generated a flash flood (305 m3 s−1) in the Ses Planes torrent that devastated the town of Sant Llorenç (Mallorca, Spain). Water reached a depth of 3 m in the most affected areas, and there was greatly increased flow velocity at bridges crossing the town. The floodwaters were very powerful and modified the channel morphology: more than 5000 t of sediment was deposited in the 2 km reach upstream of the town.
Audrey Douinot, Hélène Roux, Pierre-André Garambois, and Denis Dartus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5317–5340, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5317-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5317-2018, 2018
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The distributed, process-oriented model, MARINE, was used to test several hypotheses of flow dynamics in soils during flash flood events in the Mediterranean area. Results show that the most realistic hypothesis for each catchment is consistent with existing in situ observations and measurements. The study also highlights the potential of distributed modelling and spatial observations in hydrology, especially in dealing with equifinality issues.
Climent Ramis, Romualdo Romero, Víctor Homar, Sergio Alonso, Agustí Jansà, and Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2351–2364, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2351-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2351-2017, 2017
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During the hydrological year 2015–2016 (September to August) a severe drought affected the Balearic Islands, with substantial consequences on water availability. In this paper we analyze this anomalous episode in terms of the corresponding water balance. It is shown that the drought was the result of a lack of winter precipitation, the lowest in the last 43 years. In several analyzed meteorological stations, evaporation was greater than precipitation during all the months of the year.
Béatrice Vincendon and Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-353, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-353, 2017
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Discharge forecasts are affected by meteorological and hydrological uncertainties, particularly difficult to handle when dealing with Mediterranean flash-flood. In this work, an intercomparison of two hydrometeorological ensemble strategies is presented for heavy precipitation events that affected semi-arid Spanish catchments. Both stategies are more beneficial than a deterministic approach when conveying information to end-users. Their skill is enhanced by shorter forecasting lead-times.
Beatrice Vincendon and Arnau Amengual
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-427, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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Several hydrometeorological prediction systems were designed for two heavy precipitation events that affected Spanish Mediterranean catchments. The uncertainty on precipitation forecasting is sampled through probabilistic atmospheric systems based on two distinct kilometric-scale models. The rainfall scenarios are used to drive two distinct hydrological models. These strategies have proven useful for discharge forecasting, allowing to better encompass the arising uncertainty.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1965–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, 2014
C. Ramis, V. Homar, A. Amengual, R. Romero, and S. Alonso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2483–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2483-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2483-2013, 2013
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Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
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Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
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We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-162, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
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We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
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Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
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We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
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Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
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Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
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This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-82, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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A high resolution convection-permitting climate model is coupled with hydrological models over a Mediterranean catchment to simulate historical and future flood events. Results show the added value of this new generation of climate models for simulating Mediterranean floods. Future projections show an increase of the magnitude of the largest floods while the moderate floods are expected to decrease. Most floods are expected to become flashier i.e. potentially catastrophic in a warmer climate.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-74, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts, including the drought declared in summer 2022. We investigate the drivers of winter rainfall in the East Anglia region using a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts. We produced plausible trajectories of winter weather based on their atmospheric circulation patterns and showed how storylines of the 2022 drought can be created in autumn 2022 to explore plausible worst cases over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
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It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
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Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
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Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
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We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
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In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
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Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-9, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The study presents a new version of a framework which allow to model water balance components at any site for a local scale. In comparison to the first version, the second one incorporates new datasets used to setup and force the model. In particular, we want to highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives the potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers etc.) possibility to forecast e.g. soil moisture drought and thus apply necessary measures.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, 2023
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Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, 2023
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In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
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The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
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In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, 2023
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Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Mohamed Saadi, Carina Furusho-Percot, Alexandre Belleflamme, Ju-Yu Chen, Silke Trömel, and Stefan Kollet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, 2023
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On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, 2023
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Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze – a community-based navigation app – to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the city of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4139–4165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, 2022
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An innovative multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in the paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Ultimately, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 min can exceed 86.1 %. This can aid decision-making in terms of issuing early warning information and determining emergency responses in advance.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, 2022
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A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
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Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, 2022
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Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
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The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, 2022
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This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022
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Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2791–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, 2022
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To better understand how the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) will change with changing climate and to adapt disaster risk management accordingly, we have to quantify the extremeness of HPEs in a reliable way. We introduce the xWEI (cross-scale WEI) and show that this index can reveal important characteristics of HPEs that would otherwise remain hidden. We conclude that the xWEI could be a valuable instrument in both disaster risk management and research.
Angelica Tarpanelli, Alessandro C. Mondini, and Stefania Camici
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2473–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, 2022
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We analysed 10 years of river discharge data from almost 2000 sites in Europe, and we extracted flood events, as proxies of flood inundations, based on the overpasses of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites to derive the percentage of potential inundation events that they were able to observe. Results show that on average 58 % of flood events are potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only 28 % by Sentinel-2 due to the obstacle of cloud coverage.
David P. Callaghan and Michael G. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2459–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, 2022
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A new method was developed to estimate changes in flood hazard under climate change. We use climate projections covering New South Wales, Australia, with two emission paths of business as usual and one with reduced emissions. We apply our method to the lower floodplain of the Gwydir Valley with changes in flood hazard provided over the next 90 years compared with the previous 50 years. We find that changes in flood hazard decrease over time within the Gwydir Valley floodplain.
Joseph T. D. Lucey and Timu W. Gallien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2145–2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, 2022
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Coastal flooding can result from multiple flood drivers (e.g., tides, waves, river flows, rainfall) occurring at the same time. This study characterizes flooding events caused by high marine water levels and rain. Results show that wet-season coinciding sampling may better describe extreme flooding events in a dry, tidally dominated region. A joint-probability-based function is then used to estimate sea wall impacts on urban coastal flooding.
Erik Tijdeman, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2099–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, 2022
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We identified different drought types with typical hazard and impact characteristics. The summer drought type with compounding heat was most impactful. Regional drought propagation of this drought type exhibited typical characteristics that can guide drought management. However, we also found a large spatial variability that caused distinct differences among propagating drought signals. Accordingly, local multivariate drought information was needed to explain the full range of drought impacts.
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Short summary
The performances of flash-flood forecasts are evaluated using a meteorological model forcing a rainfall-runoff model. Both deterministic (single forecast of the most likely weather) and ensemble forecasts (set or ensemble of forecasts) have been produced on three subcatchments of the eastern Pyrenees exhibiting different rainfall regimes. Results show that both overall discharge forecast and flood warning are improved by the ensemble strategies with respect to the deterministic forecast.
The performances of flash-flood forecasts are evaluated using a meteorological model forcing a...
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