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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 6, issue 1 | Copyright

Special issue: Mediterranean Storms (Plinius 2004)

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 115-131, 2006
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-115-2006
© Author(s) 2006. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

  31 Jan 2006

31 Jan 2006

Landslide hazard assessment in the Collazzone area, Umbria, Central Italy

F. Guzzetti, M. Galli, P. Reichenbach, F. Ardizzone, and M. Cardinali F. Guzzetti et al.
  • IRPI CNR, via Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy 

Abstract. We present the results of the application of a recently proposed model to determine landslide hazard. The model predicts where landslides will occur, how frequently they will occur, and how large they will be in a given area. For the Collazzone area, in the central Italian Apennines, we prepared a multi-temporal inventory map through the interpretation of multiple sets of aerial photographs taken between 1941 and 1997 and field surveys conducted in the period between 1998 and 2004. We then partitioned the 79 square kilometres study area into 894 slope units, and obtained the probability of spatial occurrence of landslides by discriminant analysis of thematic variables, including morphology, lithology, structure and land use. For each slope unit, we computed the expected landslide recurrence by dividing the total number of landslide events inventoried in the terrain unit by the time span of the investigated period. Assuming landslide recurrence was constant, and adopting a Poisson probability model, we determined the exceedance probability of having one or more landslides in each slope unit, for different periods. We obtained the probability of landslide size, a proxy for landslide magnitude, by analysing the frequency-area statistics of landslides, obtained from the multi-temporal inventory map. Lastly, assuming independence, we determined landslide hazard for each slope unit as the joint probability of landslide size, of landslide temporal occurrence, and of landslide spatial occurrence.

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