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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 7, issue 5
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 607–614, 2007
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-607-2007
© Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

Special issue: Seismo-tectonic electromagnetic effects and precursory...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 607–614, 2007
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-607-2007
© Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

  19 Oct 2007

19 Oct 2007

A probabilistic approach for earthquake hazard assessment of the Province of Eskişehir, Turkey

A. Orhan1, E. Seyrek2, and H. Tosun2 A. Orhan et al.
  • 1Eskişehir Osmangazi University, Department of Geological Eng., Eskişehir, Turkey
  • 2Eskişehir Osmangazi University, Department of Civil Engineering, Eskişehir, Turkey

Abstract. The city of Eskişehir in inner-western Turkey has experienced a destructive earthquake with Ms=6.4 in 1956 in addition to many events with magnitudes greater than 5. It is located in a wide basin having young sedimentary units and thick alluvium soils which also include liquefiable sand materials. There is also an active fault passing beneath the city center and the groundwater level is very close to the ground surface. Approximately 600 thousand people are living in the province of Eskişehir. Therefore, the city and its vicinity have a high risk, when earthquake hazard is considered.

This paper summarizes the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which was performed for the province of Eskişehir and introduces seismic hazard maps produced by considering earthquakes with magnitude Ms≥4.0 occurred during the last 100-years and a seismic model composed of four seismic sources. The results of PSHA show that the average peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the city center is 0.40 g for 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, for rock site. The seismic hazard maps were obtained by means of a program of Geographic Information System.

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