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Volume 8, issue 1 | Copyright

Special issue: Propagation of uncertainty in advanced meteo-hydrological...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 143-159, 2008
© Author(s) 2008. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

  28 Feb 2008

28 Feb 2008

A meteo-hydrological prediction system based on a multi-model approach for precipitation forecasting

S. Davolio1, M. M. Miglietta2, T. Diomede3,4, C. Marsigli3, A. Morgillo3, and A. Moscatello2 S. Davolio et al.
  • 1Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy
  • 2Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, ISAC-CNR, Lecce, Italy
  • 3Regional Hydro-Meteorological Service ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy
  • 4Centro Interuniversitario di Ricerca in Monitoraggio Ambientale (CIMA), Università degli studi di Genova e della Basilicata, Savona, Italy

Abstract. The precipitation forecasted by a numerical weather prediction model, even at high resolution, suffers from errors which can be considerable at the scales of interest for hydrological purposes. In the present study, a fraction of the uncertainty related to meteorological prediction is taken into account by implementing a multi-model forecasting approach, aimed at providing multiple precipitation scenarios driving the same hydrological model. Therefore, the estimation of that uncertainty associated with the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), conveyed by the multi-model ensemble, can be exploited by the hydrological model, propagating the error into the hydrological forecast.

The proposed meteo-hydrological forecasting system is implemented and tested in a real-time configuration for several episodes of intense precipitation affecting the Reno river basin, a medium-sized basin located in northern Italy (Apennines). These episodes are associated with flood events of different intensity and are representative of different meteorological configurations responsible for severe weather affecting northern Apennines.

The simulation results show that the coupled system is promising in the prediction of discharge peaks (both in terms of amount and timing) for warning purposes. The ensemble hydrological forecasts provide a range of possible flood scenarios that proved to be useful for the support of civil protection authorities in their decision.

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